Simon weakens to Category 3, but Mexico’s coast has no all-clear

Simon’s rapid intensification raised the prospect of a major hurricane crossing Mexico’s Pacific coast on October 10 or early October 11. Instead, its center has tracked along the coast, remaining offshore while its winds weakened. The latest change is a downgrade to Category 3—not an end to the emergency. Thousands have already left high-risk areas, damage is being counted, and the forecast still turns the storm back toward land. ^{1 28 128}

At 00:00 UTC on October 12, 2026, Simon carried maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, or 205 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. Its center was about 80 kilometers south of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, and 175 kilometers west-northwest of Manzanillo, Colima. That was the latest established advisory before this report’s 00:30 UTC cutoff. No center landfall had been confirmed. ¹²⁸

The distinction between an offshore center and conditions onshore matters. The National Hurricane Center described hurricane conditions as likely occurring near the coast as the eastern part of Simon’s inner core skirted it. A direct landfall looked increasingly unlikely in the short term, but coastal residents were not being given an all-clear. ^{8 28}

Simon peaked overnight October 10–11 at 155 mph, or 250 kilometers per hour, with a central pressure of 928 millibars. By 15:00 UTC on October 11, winds had fallen to 230 kilometers per hour; by 21:00 UTC, to 215. The Category 3 downgrade followed three hours later, with pressure rising to 951 millibars. This is a weakening storm, but still a powerful one moving slowly beside populated shores. ^{63 29 8 128}

Earlier descriptions must therefore be read as earlier descriptions. CBC News’s October 10 account reported Category 4 strength and anticipated landfall that day or early the next morning. Global News’s account published at 23:20 UTC on October 11 still described winds above 240 kilometers per hour, although the official 21:00 UTC advisory had already put them at 215. Neither account establishes a center crossing, and neither wind description is current. ^{1 2 8}

The hurricane warning remains in force from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito and for Las Islas Marías. A hurricane watch extends north of El Roblito to Bahía Tempehuaya. The warning means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the designated area—not identical conditions at every point. The NHC’s instruction remains: “Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.” ¹²⁸

The rainfall forecast also needs its dates and definitions attached. CBC News on October 10 described 25–50 centimeters by the expected landfall; Global News on October 11 cited up to 30 inches. Those are differently timed forecasts with different accumulation scopes, not rival measurements of rain already on the ground. The latest advisory makes the distinction explicit. ^{1 2 128}

Simon is forecast to bring an additional two to four inches of rain—roughly five to ten centimeters—over portions of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa through early Thursday, October 15. Isolated additional amounts could reach eight inches. Separately, isolated maximum totals over the whole storm could reach 30 inches, or 76.2 centimeters, in portions of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. That extreme figure is neither another 30 inches still to come nor a coastwide expectation. ¹²⁸

At the shoreline, dangerous storm surge is expected near and east of where the center approaches land, accompanied by large, destructive waves. Swells could generate life-threatening surf and rip currents along portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico for the next few days. The downgrade describes maximum sustained wind; it does not withdraw these warnings. ¹²⁸

Jalisco civil-protection director Sergio Ramírez López reported at the October 10 state emergency-committee meeting that between 5,000 and 6,000 people had left coastal high-risk areas. His estimate includes organized evacuations and people leaving on their own. Most stayed with relatives; only a few hundred were described as using formal shelters. It is not a precise shelter-occupancy count. ^{163 171}

One documented operation carried 76 people from Yelapa and Quimixto to Puerto Vallarta on October 10. El Informador and El Universal independently reported that total; NoticiasPV identified the Mexican Navy ferry as Islas Marías 1 and placed its arrival at the Twelfth Naval Zone around 15:00 local time. Adults, children and foreign nationals traveled aboard, along with pets. The count is people, not families, and the operation belongs within—not automatically on top of—the broader Jalisco estimate. ^{90 93 135}

In Guerrero, the preliminary October 11 balance records one death and two injuries. The fatality in Chilpancingo was already being reported on October 9, before Simon’s peak. The state’s official assessment describes a stone wall falling onto a dwelling in Amelitos 1, leaving one person dead. Officials deemed the home uninhabitable and at high risk from slope movement, with neighboring dwellings also at risk. ^{149 92 161}

Some details remain inconsistent. Expresiones Guerrero’s October 10 account identified Albino Moreno Jiménez, 71, in Amelitos II and described a perimeter-wall collapse. La Jornada’s October 9 account identified Albino “N,” 76, in Amelitos 1 and described a landslide. The available reporting does not reconcile the age, neighborhood designation or full sequence of earth and wall movement. The two injuries were reported in Acapulco, involving a student’s fall and a dwelling collapse in La Pinzona. These are preliminary regional figures, not a final hurricane-wide toll. ^{89 86 149}

Quadratín Guerrero’s October 11 assessment lists 112 affected homes, 150 flooded businesses, 60 stranded or inundated vehicles and damage in 20 municipalities. Diario 21’s October 10 account listed 20 flooded homes. The later housing figure covers a broader damage category; it cannot be treated as proof that another 92 homes flooded. Acapulco’s 20 flooded homes and La Unión’s 80 are local components, not figures to add to the statewide total. ^{149 88}

Fallen electricity poles and service disruptions have also been reported. Available restoration updates cover particular places and stages of recovery; they do not establish a current, reconciled outage count for Guerrero or Jalisco. Nor is there a verified monetary estimate of the storm’s losses. ^{149 176 177}

Authorities announced suspension of nonessential movement and activities from 16:00 local time on October 10 in 24 municipalities across Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Nayarit. That does not establish a blanket prohibition throughout all four states. La Jornada characterized the measure as a call to suspend mobility, while Periódico AM described mandatory provisions. Without the underlying directive, its exact legal terms, exceptions and complete municipal boundaries remain unresolved. ^{184 186 187}

Nayarit’s measures included shelter-in-place instructions naming Bahía de Banderas, Tepic and Compostela, suspension of nonessential activities in six municipalities, closure of all beaches and an alcohol-sales ban across all 20 municipalities from midnight local time on October 11. The state enabled 171 temporary shelters; that is prepared capacity, not evidence that every shelter was occupied. Class suspensions and transport closures were also reported, but complete orders and reopening schedules are not established. ^{188 185 2 192}

That Wednesday turn is a forecast, not a confirmed landfall date or location. For families waiting away from home, the meaningful question is not simply whether Simon has lost a category. It is whether the rain, slopes, roads and shoreline are safe—and the latest reporting does not yet establish that they are. ^{128 28}

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