Tornado-watch deadline passes, but Little Colorado flood warning runs into Saturday

Where does the danger remain after a tornado watch reaches its deadline? In this Southwest storm, the clearest later warning concerns the river: the Little Colorado from Woodruff to Leupp, Arizona, where a new flood warning extends into early Saturday. Thursday’s tornado-watch deadline has passed. That is not an all-clear for flooded roads or river crossings. ²⁹

The National Weather Service’s Flagstaff office issued the river warning at 2:50 a.m. Mountain Standard Time on Friday, October 23, scheduled to last until 3 a.m. MST Saturday, October 24. It establishes continuing flood concerns in that specific corridor—not that every community affected Thursday remains flooded, and not a fresh water-level reading for Moenkopi Wash, Chinle Creek or the Little Colorado near Cameron. ²⁹

Flooding was already affecting Navajo Nation communities Thursday morning. The Navajo Times, citing the weather service, reported Moenkopi Wash near Tuba City at 36.38 feet against a flood stage of 27 feet—9.38 feet above that threshold. That is a reported October 22 gauge reading, not a live Friday observation. Gauge stage measures water height at a monitoring point; it does not mean water was 36 feet deep across a road or inside a building. ¹

Near Chinle, the same report put a stream gauge at approximately 3.6 feet, below its four-foot flood stage, with additional rain expected. Elevated flows were also reported on the Little Colorado near Cameron. Flood warnings covered portions of Apache and Coconino counties, including areas along Chinle Creek, Moenkopi Wash and the Little Colorado. A strong Pacific weather system was bringing showers and thunderstorms onto already wet ground. ¹

Those observations describe an uneven situation: one reported gauge well above flood stage, another below its threshold, and elevated flows elsewhere. They cannot be stretched into a single water level for the region. Nor does Friday’s Woodruff-to-Leupp warning show whether the water at those three monitoring locations has since risen or fallen. Updated numerical readings remain unestablished.

Across the state line, Thursday’s flooding interrupted familiar routes in Farmington, New Mexico. The Tri City Record reported closures on San Juan Boulevard and Main Street, and Farmington Police reported a wash overflowing on Navajo Street. Elsewhere in San Juan County, low-water crossings were running, including crossings on Road 4990. Police urged drivers to avoid flooded roads. These are Thursday impact reports, not a verified inventory of Friday closures or reopenings. ⁴

The rainfall figures also have a boundary in time. For the 24 hours preceding Thursday’s account, the Record reported more than 1.22 inches north of Navajo Dam, 1.03 inches in Farmington, 1.01 inches in Bloomfield and 0.89 inches in Aztec. They are a snapshot before the storm finished, not final storm totals. ⁴

Another half-inch to an inch and a half was forecast for northern San Juan County, with elevated flash-flood potential from about 2 to 9 p.m. Thursday. That forecast does not establish how much additional rain fell. The regional flood watch was initially described as lasting through late Thursday evening; a later NWS bulletin carried a 6 a.m. MDT Friday deadline, which has also passed. Neither deadline supplies evidence that a particular crossing reopened. ^{4 32}

Tornado Watch 693 covered 13 counties Thursday. In Arizona, they were Apache, Coconino, Navajo, Cochise, Graham, Greenlee and Gila. In New Mexico, they were Catron, Cibola, Grant, Hidalgo, McKinley and San Juan. The footprint reached Navajo Nation communities and extended south to Douglas and Sierra Vista. Inclusion meant tornado development was possible, not that a tornado or damaging wind had struck every place named. ^{1 8}

The differing local expiration times were not a disagreement: 8 p.m. MST in Arizona and 9 p.m. MDT in New Mexico and on the Navajo Nation were the same instant, 03:00 UTC on October 23. Afternoon NWS updates retained that scheduled end. No verified extension has been established, so Thursday’s watch should not be treated as active Friday. ^{7 2 3}

Forecasters had warned of rotating thunderstorms capable of hail one to two inches across, gusts exceeding 60 mph and a few possible tornadoes. Some local forecasts characterized the tornado chance as low, emphasizing hail and wind. Eastern Arizona faced the greatest severe-weather threat, with storms expected to weaken from west to east. These were forecast hazards, not a tally of observed impacts. ^{1 13}

A separate severe thunderstorm warning near Quemado shortly before noon Thursday cited possible 60 mph gusts and quarter-size hail. That storm-specific warning did not confirm a tornado either. The Storm Prediction Center’s preliminary October 22–23 reporting window listed no tornado reports, but the summary was unofficial and covered a limited interval. A final tornado determination remains unresolved. ^{5 20}

On October 22, we reported significant damage and minor injuries in Heber-Overgaard from the preceding Wednesday night, when trees and utility poles came down and a tornado warning was in effect. No tornado was confirmed in that account; Thursday’s broader watch does not supply the missing confirmation, and those injuries must not be reassigned to it. On October 23, we separately reported flooded structures and road closures in Archuleta County, Colorado. Friday’s Little Colorado warning concerns a different corridor in Arizona. ¹

The protective actions are different, too. A tornado warning means a tornado has been detected by radar or reported and calls for immediate shelter in a small interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows. For the flood aftermath, police advice remains direct: avoid flooded roads. Which crossings have reopened, and whether water levels are falling at Moenkopi, Chinle and Cameron, remain unanswered. Saturday morning is the river warning’s next scheduled checkpoint—not a promise that the water will be gone. ^{1 4 29}