San Juan River rises 1.7 feet in an hour as Farmington-area evacuations ordered

The San Juan River at Farmington rose 1.7 feet in a single hour Friday morning, according to successive National Weather Service warnings. At 9 a.m., flooding was classified as moderate. By 10 a.m., the reported river height was 13.2 feet and the flooding was major. ^{1 2}

For people in an evacuation alert area around Farmington, New Mexico, the instruction was already urgent. A San Juan County emergency alert timestamped shortly after 9 a.m. MDT on October 23, 2026, said the river’s banks had breached and told people in the affected area to “EVACUATE NOW.” McGee Park was open for people, pets and recreational vehicles. ⁶¹

The alert does not establish an order to evacuate all of Farmington or all of San Juan County. Its area was described as centered around Farmington, but exact street boundaries were not established in the available information. Residents need location-specific instructions from emergency officials, not an assumption that a city or county name defines the evacuation zone. ⁶¹

The worsening conditions overtook the earlier outlook. In its 9:57 a.m. warning, the NWS Albuquerque office reported an 11.5-foot river height at 9 a.m. and predicted a crest of 12.2 feet late Friday afternoon. Its 10:42 a.m. update reported that the river had already reached 13.2 feet at 10 a.m.—a full foot above that earlier forecast peak—and raised the afternoon crest prediction to 14.0 feet. ^{1 2}

That is a substantial revision: the predicted peak rose by 1.8 feet between warnings. But neither 12.2 feet nor 14.0 feet is an established, completed crest. The latest observation reported in these two warnings is the 10 a.m. reading, not a live measurement at publication. An independent, time-stamped gauge series was not available to corroborate those reported readings. ^{1 2 3 5}

The 13.2-foot reading put the river 4.7 feet above its stated flood stage of 8.5 feet. If the forecast 14.0-foot crest is reached, that margin would become 5.5 feet. These figures describe river-gauge height against a fixed reference; they do not mean that every flooded road, yard or building contains that depth of water. Conditions on the ground depend on the location. ²

The updated warning also said the flooding had exceeded the previous flood of record. Both warnings cite a historical crest of 12.3 feet on September 6, 1909. Friday’s reported 10 a.m. reading is numerically 0.9 foot higher. ^{1 2}

That supports reporting the Weather Service’s record-exceedance assessment, but not independently certifying a new historical record. The original historical crest entry and confirmation that the old and current measurements use a comparable gauge reference were not established. Without that comparison, subtracting one height from another cannot settle the historical claim. ^{3 5 15}

There is a separate identification issue worth keeping straight. The San Juan River at Farmington is USGS station 09365000, also identified as NWPS FRMN5. The Animas River at Farmington is station 09364500; the Animas near Cedar Hill is station 09363500. They are different measurement sites. Sharing “Farmington” in a name, or affecting a county called San Juan, does not make their readings and forecasts interchangeable. ^{5 15 27 28}

That distinction matters when looking for missing information. An Animas reading cannot establish whether the San Juan has crested, and a Cedar Hill forecast cannot supply a missing Farmington crest time. The actual San Juan peak and its timing remain unconfirmed.

McGee Park’s opening gives evacuees a named destination that accommodates pets and RVs as well as people. It does not establish a safe route from every affected property. No named road, bridge or park closure specifically attributable to this San Juan River flooding at Farmington was established in the available reports. That gap is not evidence that every route is passable. The NWS warnings instruct motorists not to drive around barricades or through flooded areas. ^{61 66 2}

The forecast for the river’s retreat also moved later. The first warning predicted a fall below flood stage late Saturday morning, October 24. The update shifted that expectation to early Saturday afternoon. Both remain forecasts, and even an observed fall below flood stage would not, by itself, establish that a flooded route is safe to reopen. ^{1 2}

The warning’s stated expiration should not be mistaken for an all-clear either. The earlier alert carried conflicting end information: its expiration field said 4 p.m. MDT Saturday, its headline said noon Sunday, and its description extended into Sunday afternoon. Those cannot be presented as one reliable deadline. ¹

The later warning lists a scheduled expiration of 2:04 a.m. MDT Sunday, October 25. That is the later alert’s stated expiration, not an independently confirmed operational end time or a guarantee that danger ends then. A message’s expiration, a warning’s event-end time and the forecast return below flood stage need not coincide. ²

The warnings provide no injury or property-damage totals; they do not establish that nobody was hurt or that no damage occurred. The immediate documented facts are enough to demand attention: breached banks, major flooding, an evacuation instruction for the affected alert area and an open shelter. The crest and the timing of safe access remain unresolved. ^{1 2 61}