Moenkopi Wash warning extended to 7 a.m.; gauge well above major flood stage

As of this report’s 6:27 a.m. MST snapshot on November 2, the latest warning had about 33 minutes left to run. What remained unconfirmed was more important than that countdown: whether the water had peaked and begun to fall. The latest warning excerpt supplied no numerical water level and did not establish an observed crest.⁠14⁠20

Stay clear of the wash, and do not enter floodwater on foot or in a vehicle. Going closer to inspect a crossing or check a field puts a person near the very hazard the warning describes. A warning’s scheduled expiration is not a promise that water will have drained away or that a flooded route will be safe.

The warning concerns Moenkopi Wash in Coconino County, in north-central Arizona. Tuba City is the reference location for the gauge; it should not be read as a claim that every part of Tuba City is flooded. The original alert’s specific description of threatened homes and agricultural land centers on lower Moenkopi Village.⁠1

These were successive extensions of the same warning, not separate episodes with a safe interval between them. The original 1 a.m. deadline was superseded, as was the later 4 a.m. deadline. A page carrying only the first alert therefore gives an incomplete account of the overnight danger.⁠12⁠13

The original alert contained an observation, a threshold and a forecast. They should not be collapsed into a single account of the wash’s present condition. At 4:45 p.m. MST Sunday, the gauge near Tuba City read 26.0 feet. The alert listed flood stage as 27.0 feet and forecast a 29.45-foot crest for 5 a.m. MST Monday.⁠1

That 26-foot observation was one foot below the stated flood-stage threshold, but it was taken before the original warning was issued and many hours before the later major-flood-stage description. It is historical context, not the current water level. It also describes the gauge’s stage—not the depth of water inside a house, across a road or over a field.⁠1⁠14

The original alert initially described the wash as having risen above action stage. In general NWS terminology, action stage is a level at which precautions are taken for possible high water; it is not interchangeable with flood stage. The later description of water well above major flood stage marks a substantially more serious assessment, even though the available excerpt does not attach a numerical reading to it.⁠1⁠4⁠14

The forecast crest would have been 2.45 feet above the original alert’s stated flood stage. But the arrival of 5 a.m. does not turn that forecast into an observation. Without an observed peak and subsequent readings, it cannot establish that the water has turned downward. The later warning remained scheduled to run for two hours beyond that forecast peak time.⁠1⁠13

The original warning identifies 27 feet as the level at which water begins encroaching on lower Moenkopi Village homes and flooding crop fields along the river. That makes the stakes concrete: shelter and cultivated land are exposed as the wash rises. It does not, by itself, confirm that a particular home has taken in water or establish how much farmland has flooded.⁠1

No independently confirmed account of flooded homes, road closures, evacuations or rescues was established in the available records for this report. The retrieved warning excerpts also did not provide complete community-specific protective instructions. Those are gaps in the available information—not evidence that there have been no impacts or that no further instructions exist.

The next consequential update is the warning decision at 7 a.m. MST: whether forecasters extend the alert again, cancel it or allow it to expire. Alongside that decision, residents need a fresh observation showing the wash’s direction. A changed warning status and falling water are different facts. Only the latter would begin to answer whether the threat to homes, fields and routes is receding.