The US diesel price surge

מה השתנה

• 700,000Barrels per day of Russian diesel exports lost
• 60%Fall in Russian June diesel exports year on year
• $6.30 / $6.44US diesel prices in conflicting reports per gallon
• Ukrainian drones cut or halted output at 3 of Russia's 6 largest diesel refineries, removing about 700,000 barrels per day from exports.
• Russian June diesel exports fell 60% year on year amid strikes averaging every 3 days in 2026.
• US diesel hit records above $6 a gallon, reported as $6.30 average and $6.44 record with $4.47 gasoline.

מה שנותר פתוח אז

• No reconciliation of whether $6.30 and $6.44 measure average versus peak, different days, or different sources.
• No named refineries, no current operating status beyond cut or halted, and no detailed terms for Zelensky's proposed parallel concessions.

מה שאמרנו שנעקוב אחריו

• Whether the refinery truce offer draws a Russian answer or retaliatory strikes on fuel continue.
• Whether Hormuz restrictions ease and restore slack to absorb further export losses.

מה ידענו בהתחלה

• $6US diesel average, first time on record
• +60%Year-over-year jump in diesel price
• 10% vs 2-3%Hormuz diesel share vs Russian peak share
• US diesel topped $6 per gallon for first time, up 60% year over year.
• Trump blamed Ukraine strikes on Russian refineries and demanded Kyiv stop hitting diesel fuel.
• Expert puts Hormuz at 10% of seaborne diesel vs Russian exports at 2-3% of demand, with US refining at 95-97% and exports near 2M barrels per day.

מה שנותר פתוח אז

• No precise quantified share of the price rise from Ukraine strikes has been established.
• No confirmed Ukrainian official response to Trump’s demand.

מה שאמרנו שנעקוב אחריו

• Whether Hormuz pressure and refining tightness keep diesel near record levels.
• Whether Washington presses Kyiv further despite marginal relief expected.