Politik · Brazil runoffBolsonaro's Son Beats Lula in Round One by 1.9 Points as Brazil Heads to RunoffDitulis 5 Oktober 2026 pukul 17.38 UTCTontonTranskrip0:09A first-time candidate just beat Brazil's president in round one by under two0:14points.0:14He is Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, son of a former president serving 27 years for a coup,0:19and he has pledged amnesty for his father.0:22Neither he nor Lula cleared 50%, so the two meet in a runoff.0:26The question: Can Lula, 80, close the gap, or do the defeated candidates' votes0:31carry Flavio past the line?0:32With every ballot counted, Flavio took 47.03% of valid votes, about0:3756.1 million.0:39Lula took 45.16%, about 53 million.0:43Everyone else shared roughly 7.8%.0:46That gap is the smallest in a first round in Brazilian history.0:49The published figures differ slightly, since 47,4016 is 1.87, likely0:55rounding.0:56Early counts made it look wider, and 97% counted.0:59It was 47.42 to 44.70.1:02Lula collected about 3.4 million fewer votes than in his 2022 first round.1:07even as valid votes hit a record 119.3 million.1:11Flavio won the most votes in 15 states, Lula in 12 units.1:15Lula told supporters in São Paulo he was surprised and had expected to win outright.1:20The result beat most private polls, and a July poll had him ahead of Flavio in a1:24runoff.1:25We reported in August that the two were polling closely.1:28The arithmetic runs through those other candidates.1:31Flavio needs about three more points of valid votes to reach 50%, Lula needs nearly1:36five.1:36The expectation is that those mostly right-wing votes move to Flavio, but that is a1:41forecast, not a result.1:42Flavio is courting defeated candidates, counting on São Paulo Governor Tarcicio de1:46Freitas, and planning a bigger push in the Northeast.1:49No formal endorsement from any defeated candidate had been established by Monday,1:54and no runoff poll has surfaced.1:55The amnesty pledge makes this runoff partly a vote on whether a convicted coup2:00leader walks free.2:01Reports differ on whether Jair Bolsonaro is jailed or under house arrest.2:05He has backed his son from custody.2:08Flavio has also pledged closer ties with the United States and would likely join the2:12U.S.-led shield of the Americas anti-Narco coalition, though that assessment is less2:16firmly sourced.2:18Donald Trump's backing of Flavio is less overt than in Colombia or Argentina, while2:23Lula has taken an anti-US line.2:25At home, the top concerns are crime and security, including femicide, and a weak2:30economy with interest rates above 13%.2:32Those are the pressures a challenger has used against an incumbent of 80.2:36Brazil's electronic voting system is secure, but doubts about it have grown.2:40Flavio and Jair Bolsonaro have alleged problems without concrete evidence.2:44Whether either press's fraud claims after a first-round Flavio one is open, and a2:49closer runoff would raise the stakes of any such claim.2:51Investors read the result as favorable to Flavio.2:54Brazilian markets were expected to jump on Monday on hopes for fiscal reform and2:58lower interest rates, and a Brazil-focused ETF in Tokyo rose 7.6% in early trading.3:03The actual moves in the Abospa and the Real are not yet established.3:07One estimate says a Flavio win could cut 10-year yields by 70 basis points and lift3:11the Real almost 3%.3:12That is a scenario, not an outcome, and it shows what capital wants, not what the3:17public needs.3:18So can Lula close the gap?3:20That is unknown.3:21No runoff poll exists yet.3:22No defeated candidate has formally endorsed Flavio and turnout and congressional3:26results are not established.3:28What is known, Flavio needs about three points.3:30Lula nearly five and on October 25th Jair Bolsonaro's amnesty, U.S.3:35alignment, crime and a 13% interest rate economy are all on the ballot.Baca artikelKronologi ceritaHeyDexVideo singkat ↗Siapa melaporkan apaPoin yang dilaporkan lebih dari satu media✓First-round vote shares for Bolsonaro and LulaDikonfirmasi secara independen · 7 media✓Date and candidates for the presidential runoffDikonfirmasi secara independen · 7 media✓No candidate won an outright majorityDikonfirmasi secara independen · 5 media✓Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first roundDikonfirmasi secara independen · 3 mediaJair Bolsonaro’s sentence for plotting a coup3 media✓Lula’s bid for a fourth presidential termDikonfirmasi secara independen · 2 media✓Bolsonaro’s pledge to pardon his fatherDikonfirmasi secara independen · 2 mediaOther candidates’ voters in the runoff2 mediaFirst-round abstention rate2 mediaJair Bolsonaro’s imprisonment and support for his son2 mediaPoin yang hanya dilaporkan satu media14Hanya dilaporkan oleh DW NewsBolsonaro’s result compared with pre-election polls5 Okt, 15.59 UTCVoters unwilling to support either political camp4 Okt, 17.15 UTCTrump administration’s support for Bolsonaro4 Okt, 17.15 UTCHanya dilaporkan oleh ABC News (Australia)Issues shaping voters’ concerns5 Okt, 3.00 UTCTrump and Lula’s positions toward the United States5 Okt, 3.00 UTCHanya dilaporkan oleh BBC NewsLula’s reaction to the first-round result5 Okt, 3.40 UTCFirst-round voting took place on Sunday5 Okt, 4.51 UTCHanya dilaporkan oleh The GuardianLiberal Party’s Senate caucus size5 Okt, 16.05 UTCBolsonaro’s plan to change the constitution7 Okt, 15.03 UTCBolsonaro relatives elected to Congress5 Okt, 16.05 UTCRecord of first-round runners-up in runoffs5 Okt, 16.05 UTCHanya dilaporkan oleh FRANCE 24 EnglishReported US plan to fund Brazil’s far right5 Okt, 20.37 UTCLula’s statement about foreign interference5 Okt, 20.37 UTCLula’s campaign video on sovereignty5 Okt, 20.37 UTCSetiap baris adalah klaim sebagaimana kami catat dari laporan media tersebut. Dibandingkan per 7 Oktober 2026 pukul 23.12 UTC.Liputan terkaitPeristiwa yang sama·2 Okt, 16.32 UTCG7 pledges reserve release after U.S. threatens allies' diesel supply
