Russia’s gasoline shortage after refinery strikes

달라진 점

• Ukraine struck Russian refineries at least 21 times in August, a monthly record.
• Russian refining fell to about 3.6 million barrels per day in July.
• Petrol was available at fewer than three in ten Russian stations.
• Russian firms missed about 60% of gasoline contracts from May to September.

당시 미해결

• No verified total for capacity offline beyond partial estimates.
• No verified export-ban dates, diesel volumes, price-rise figure, or ration limits.

지켜보겠다고 한 점

• Whether refinery runs recover in the fall or stay near multi-decade lows.
• Whether emergency fuel imports widen from jet fuel to gasoline and diesel.

달라진 점

• Almost all of Russia's 83 regions are seeing gasoline shortages or disruptions; Putin publicly acknowledged the situation for the first time on June 28 and reiterated it the next day; Ukraine's drone campaign against refineries has been sustained for months and struck the Omsk refinery, Russia's largest, on July 6.

당시 미해결

• The exact share of Russian refining capacity currently offline; the precise tally of drone interceptions over Russian territory; any internal polling on Russian attitudes toward the war, mobilization or Putin's approval in 2026.

지켜보겠다고 한 점

• Whether the Omsk outage deepens rationing in western Russia; whether Putin signals any change in war aims; and what President Zelenskyy presses for in air-defense and long-range capability talks at allied summits.

처음 알려진 내용

• Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Lukoil approached Indian refiners for gasoline in early July 2026, and at least one cargo had sailed for Russia via traders.
• Russian gasoline output fell to ~850,000 bpd, down from 1.03 million bpd in 2025.
• Putin publicly acknowledged queues at petrol stations but described the situation as "not critical" and "temporary."

당시 미해결

• Whether Indian refiners can sustain meaningful volumes to Russia, or whether early shipments are one-off triage.
• Which share of Russian refining capacity is truly offline — sources range from "a significant portion" to 40 percent.
• How the State Duma subsidy framework will be priced, and who ultimately absorbs the cost.

지켜보겠다고 한 점

• Whether July and August driving-season demand forces Russia to widen the import bridge beyond India — and at what point the queues in Moscow become politically unsustainable.