U.S. Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries

O que mudou

• Brazil opened a reciprocity review August 13-14 over July U.S. tariffs, with no countermeasures imposed yet.
• The 2025 Reciprocity Law allows mirror measures and suspension of concessions, now used for the first time.
• Brasília describes the move as a negotiation tool to force talks on technical criteria.

Então ainda em aberto

• No specific Brazilian countermeasures, timeline, U.S. response, or sector-level economic impact is established in these sources.
• No agreed headline U.S. tariff rate is established because sources report different figures.

O que dissemos que iríamos acompanhar

• Watch what measures Camex proposes, whether Washington returns to talks, and how the October election shapes Lula's next step.

O que sabíamos inicialmente

• Permanent Section 301 tariffs of 10%–12.5% take effect 12:01 a.m. Friday, July 24, on 60 economies, replacing the expiring 10% stopgap.
• The stated legal rationale is each target's failure to prohibit goods made with forced labor.
• USTR Jamieson Greer recommended the duties after a months-long investigation and public hearings.

Então ainda em aberto

• Whether a separate 50% Section 338 tariff on Canada, with a 30-day negotiation window for Prime Minister Mark Carney, is in effect.
• Whether a CNN poll showing 63% opposition (up from 48% in November) reflects current public opinion.
• Which specific product categories — beyond the general forced-labor framing — are exempted from the new duties.

O que dissemos que iríamos acompanhar

• How trading partners respond in formal filings and at the WTO before Friday's deadline.
• Whether the lower-tier headcount settles at 14, 16, 17 or another number as more documentation is published.
• How quickly the new rates pass through to consumer prices on the next import cycle.