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20 Million Barrels Vanished. China Kept the Price From Exploding.
Up to 20 million barrels a day vanished at the April peak. Prices never exploded — because Beijing stopped buying and lived off a 1.2-billion-barrel stockpile.
O que sabíamos inicialmente
- Hormuz carried about 20% of global crude and refined products before closure.
- Up to 20 million barrels a day were removed at the April 2026 peak.
- China drew roughly 41 million barrels from inventories in June, per IEA July report.
- China held about 1.2 billion barrels in crude stockpile.
Então ainda em aberto
- No confirmed size of China's total import cut or exact Middle East export loss.
- No confirmed explanation for how Chinese demand was met without disruption.
O que dissemos que iríamos acompanhar
- Whether customs and inventory data confirm a sustained import swing or a one-month draw.
- Whether price stability holds if Hormuz remains constrained and stockpiles thin.
