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Russia’s gasoline shortage after refinery strikes

Atualização 3 de 3Mais recente28/08, 17:36 UTCDia 5353 dias depois
Ukraine's Drone Strikes Spark Russia's Fuel Crisis
Record August strikes pushed Russian refining to its lowest in decades, leaving stations short, contracts unfilled, and Moscow hunting for imports.
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O que mudou
- Ukraine struck Russian refineries at least 21 times in August, a monthly record.
- Russian refining fell to about 3.6 million barrels per day in July.
- Petrol was available at fewer than three in ten Russian stations.
- Russian firms missed about 60% of gasoline contracts from May to September.
Então ainda em aberto
- No verified total for capacity offline beyond partial estimates.
- No verified export-ban dates, diesel volumes, price-rise figure, or ration limits.
O que dissemos que iríamos acompanhar
- Whether refinery runs recover in the fall or stay near multi-decade lows.
- Whether emergency fuel imports widen from jet fuel to gasoline and diesel.
Atualização 2 de 37/07, 4:53 UTCDia 1Em menos de uma hora
Putin Admits Russia Has a Fuel Problem
After years of insisting the war was going to plan, the Kremlin has acknowledged that Ukrainian drones have crippled the country's refineries — and rationing is now spreading.
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O que mudou
- Almost all of Russia's 83 regions are seeing gasoline shortages or disruptions; Putin publicly acknowledged the situation for the first time on June 28 and reiterated it the next day; Ukraine's drone campaign against refineries has been sustained for months and struck the Omsk refinery, Russia's largest, on July 6.
Então ainda em aberto
- The exact share of Russian refining capacity currently offline; the precise tally of drone interceptions over Russian territory; any internal polling on Russian attitudes toward the war, mobilization or Putin's approval in 2026.
O que dissemos que iríamos acompanhar
- Whether the Omsk outage deepens rationing in western Russia; whether Putin signals any change in war aims; and what President Zelenskyy presses for in air-defense and long-range capability talks at allied summits.
Atualização 1 de 37/07, 4:18 UTCDia 1
20% of Russian refining capacity is offline. Moscow is buying gasoline from India by sea.
Ukraine's long drone campaign has pushed Russia, the country Europe used to count on for fuel, into the unfamiliar posture of an importer — and the sources disagree on just how deep the hole is.
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O que sabíamos inicialmente
- Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and Lukoil approached Indian refiners for gasoline in early July 2026, and at least one cargo had sailed for Russia via traders.
- Russian gasoline output fell to ~850,000 bpd, down from 1.03 million bpd in 2025.
- Putin publicly acknowledged queues at petrol stations but described the situation as "not critical" and "temporary."
Então ainda em aberto
- Whether Indian refiners can sustain meaningful volumes to Russia, or whether early shipments are one-off triage.
- Which share of Russian refining capacity is truly offline — sources range from "a significant portion" to 40 percent.
- How the State Duma subsidy framework will be priced, and who ultimately absorbs the cost.
O que dissemos que iríamos acompanhar
- Whether July and August driving-season demand forces Russia to widen the import bridge beyond India — and at what point the queues in Moscow become politically unsustainable.