Economy · trade war leverCanada's F-35 Review: 16 of 88 Committed, Rest in LimboAired August 29, 2026 at 7:04 PM UTCWritten September 7, 2026 at 9:22 PM UTCRead the write-upThis storyTranscript · LOADING0:00Canada is committed to just 16 of 88 F-35s, ets the only number locked by contract,0:05and the remaining 72 are under review with a price tag near $27.7 billion.0:10With tariffs now escalating, will Canada keep its American jets, switch to Sweden's0:14Gripen, or fly both?0:16The review was ordered in mid-March 2025, days after Mark Carney took office.0:21Its original deadline passed without a decision, and no new one has been set.0:26The review began in March 2025, just days after Mark Carney became Prime Minister.0:31Its original deadline passed without a decision, and none has been set since.0:36Only 16 of the 88 F-35s announced in 2023 are actually under contract.0:41The program now carries a budget of $27,007 billion Canadian, and the rest of the0:46fleet remains undecided.0:47The fighter purchase has become a lever in the trade fight.0:50The United States imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods on August 22nd, covering0:56about $27.6 billion of exports.0:59Canada answered on September 8th with dollar-for-dollar countertariffs as high as1:0350% on a similar volume of American imports.1:06Defense Minister David McGuinty has described the F-35 review as a point of debate1:11in the trade negotiation.1:12Prime Minister Kearney has called the long-lead payments for the F-35s a bargaining1:17chip.1:17British Columbia's Premier publicly urged Kearney not to spend $12 billion on jets1:22from a partner imposing tariffs.1:24The rationale for the F-35 has also been publicly undercut.1:28On March 19th, the commander of NORAD, General Gregory Guillaud, told the U.S.1:33Senate Armed Services Committee that fifth-generation fighters are not needed to1:37defend the continent's borders.1:39He pointed to modernized fourth-generation jets for homeland intercept, arguing1:43stealth and strike capabilities are better used overseas.1:46Gillett did not say Canada should cancel the F-35, nor that NORAD doesn't need1:51Canadian fighters.1:52He separated the border defense mission from the overseas strike mission.1:56Separately, the government accountability office reported in June that the F-352:00fleet's mission capable rate fell from 67% in fiscal 2021 to 44% in fiscal2:062025.2:07The full mission capable rate dropped from 38% to 25%, with the F-35A variant2:12sitting at 28.5% against a 65% goal.2:15The readiness figures come from the GAO and reflect a fleet struggling with spare2:19parts, software delays, and corrosion.2:22Saab has pitched its Gripen E-fighters as a sovereign alternative.2:25The offer commonly includes 72 Gripen EF jets plus 5-6 Global Eye early warning2:30aircraft, with technology and intellectual property transfer, source code access,2:34and possible assembly in Canada.2:36Saab claims the deal could create between 9,000 and 12,600 Canadian jobs, but that's2:41a vendor projection.2:42Brazil's Gripen line employs about 200 people at the site, with only 60 on the2:47production floor.2:48The broader program supports about 2,200 direct jobs.2:52Two orders of magnitude smaller than Saab's Canadian headline?2:55Washington has applied pressure and then backed off.2:57In late January, U.S.2:59Ambassador Pete Hoekstra warned that if Canada did not provide F-35 level3:03capability, NORAD would have to be altered, with the U.S.3:06flying more F-35s into Canadian airspace to fill the gaps.3:09By June 27th, Hoekstra had softened the line, saying a mixed fleet will not kill3:13NORAD and that Washington would weigh overall capability, not one aircraft choice.3:18The State Department later said the comments were taken out of context, and by June3:22Hoekstra walked them back.3:24Reporting has floated two shapes for a mixed fleet, around 30 F-35s Ekans plus 603:29Gripens, or up to about 140 jets mixing F-35s Ekans, Gripens, and Global Eye as a3:35third tier.3:36Neither is government policy.3:37What is certain, 16 jets are committed, long-laid items for 14 more are in the3:42pipeline, and the first eight are slated for Luke Air Force Base in Arizona in3:462026-2027 for pilot training.3:48Canada has also already committed to the F-35's anti-ship weapon, buying the Joint3:53Strike missile for about $800 million Canadian.3:56That purchase, confirmed in July, tilts toward keeping a meaningful F-35 core even4:01in a mixed fleet.4:02The cost of delay is concrete.4:04Only 16 jets are locked by contract and the long lead payments for 14 more would be4:08partly sunk if the rest are canceled.4:10The interoperability risk isn't that NORAD disappears, but that data links, mission4:15data reprogramming, and alert scramble interchangeability between two different4:19fighters become the price of the split.4:21The CF-18s that now carry the NORAD and NATO missions are scheduled to retire in4:252032, compressing the decision window.4:28With no government decision date, the best sourced expectation is that Ottawa waits4:32until after the November 2026 U.S.4:34midterms.4:35The question the country is answering by not answering is whether its next4:39generation Air Force is American, Swedish, or both.Explore with HeyDexThe shortThe short ↗