Politics · Saxony-Anhalt electionAfD on Track for First Far-Right State Government in GermanyAired September 6, 2026 at 5:01 PM UTCWritten September 6, 2026 at 5:03 PM UTCRead the write-upThis storyTranscript · LOADING0:00FIRST forecasts put Germany's far-right AFD at 44.5% in Saxony-Anhalt.0:06That would give the AFD the first far-right state government in post-war Germany led0:09by a party its own state intelligence has branded a confirmed right-wing extremist0:13organization since November 2023.0:16The question now is whether it can claim the 42 of 83 seats needed for an absolute0:20majority, or whether a 5% hurdle and a small populist party decide the outcome.0:24About 1.7 million people were eligible.0:27Turnout by 4 p.m.0:28had already reached 65%, above the full 60.3% turnout of the 2021 election.0:34A certified result is expected early Monday.0:37The CDU's collapse is stark.0:39From 37.1% five years ago to 18.5% in the forecast, the AFD0:45has more than doubled its 20.8% from 2021.0:49Both broadcasters' forecasts put the AFD around 44 to 44.5%.0:54The 83-seat parliament needs 42 for a majority.0:57The forecasts sketch the AFD at 39 to 41 seats.1:01the CDU at 16 to 17 and the new left populist BSW on the knife edge at 4.8 to 5.0%.1:07The FDP is heading out at 2 to 2.5 percent.1:10Because of the 5 percent threshold, wasted votes inflate the AFD's seat share.1:14One university model put the chance of an AFD solo majority at about 26 percent.1:18Whether BSW crosses 5 percent, and whether leftover votes concentrate will decide if1:23the AFD can rule alone.1:24Both MERS and Schulze reject any deal with the AFD.1:28Siegmund rejects any deal with the CDU.1:31The AFD's lead candidate is 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, a Landtag member since1:362016, who campaigned on winning 45% plus X and an AFD only government.1:41He rejects any coalition with the CDU.1:43His rival is Fen Schulze, the incumbent Minister President since January, and MEP1:48from 2014 to 2021, who rules out AFD ministers and wants to continue the CDU SPDFDP1:54coalition.1:55The CDU has governed the state continuously since 2002 and essentially since2:00reunification.2:01Chancellor Mertz has placed the firewall directly in play.2:04Mertz warned that investors would think three times if an absolute majority for the2:08right populist party locks in on Monday.2:11The AFD is challenging that extremist classification in court.2:14The Magdeburg case is stayed pending the federal case in Cologne.2:18Saxony Anhalt casts four of the Bundesrat's 69 votes as a block.2:23An AFD government would put the first AFD voice at the national table, though a2:27single state cannot block federal law.2:29The state also takes the chair of the Conference of Minister-Presidents later this2:32year.2:33The deeper context is demographic and economic.2:36The state's population has fallen from about 3 million at the fall of the wall to2:40roughly 2.2 million now, with forecasts under 2 million by 2031 and toward 1.82:46million by 2040.2:48It has the oldest workforce in Germany and an energy-intensive chemical industry2:52under cost pressure at Luna.2:54Migration is the top issue for 90% of AFD supporters, yet, the foreigner share here2:59is about 8%.3:00and the migrant background share about 11% versus roughly 30% nationally.3:04It's a paradox.3:06The AFD is strongest where immigration is lowest.3:08The 2025 Sox and Anhalt monitor found that while 87% of residents endorse democracy3:14in the abstract, only 43.5% reject authoritarian alternatives.3:1854%, fragile Democrats, accept democracy, but would not rule out a one-party system,3:24a strong leader, or a dictatorship.3:26The researcher says these voters would not reliably defend the system in a rupture,3:30exactly the pool where the AFD grows.3:32The AFD's state program is among the party's hardest, remigration and expanded3:37deportation detention, a work duty for asylum seekers, cutting democracy promotion3:41funding, shrinking ministries, rewriting public broadcasting, keeping coal,3:46returning to nuclear power, easing Russian gas sanctions through the Bundesrat, and3:50traditionalist schooling.3:51Ziegman attended the 2023 Potsdam meeting that discussed mass remigration.3:55The vote is a test of the firewall and of post-war precedent.3:59The certified result early Monday will show whether the AFD can claim an absolute4:03majority and whether the CDU, facing a minority, might need left abstentions,4:08testing the left half of its own firewall.Explore with HeyDexFollow via RSSThe shortThe short ↗