Economy · Oil hits $100 · ArchiveECB Holds Rates, September Hike in Play as Oil Hits $100Aired July 23, 2026 at 6:05 PM UTCWritten September 7, 2026 at 9:22 PM UTCRead the write-upThis storyTranscript · LOADING0:00The European Central Bank held interest0:02rates steady today, but the pause may be0:04short-lived as oil prices surge past0:06$100 a barrel.0:08The ECB left its deposit rate at 2.25%0:11with the main refinancing rate at 2.40%0:14and the marginal lending rate at 2.65%.0:17But President Christine Lagarde signaled0:19a possible rate hike at the September0:2010th meeting as energy prices keep0:22inflation running hot. Brent crude hit0:25exactly $100 a barrel today, the first0:28time in 2 months. The trigger? Houthi0:30fighters attacked two Saudi oil tankers0:32in the Red Sea, compounding the Strait0:34of Hormuz disruption already underway0:36from the US-Iran war. European stock0:38markets tumbled, the FTSE 100 down 1.8%,0:41the DAX and CAC each falling about 1.6%.0:44Natural gas is now at its highest level0:47in more than 3 years. Euro area0:49inflation sits at 2.8% well above the0:52ECB's 2% target. Under the adverse0:55scenario Lagarde's staff is modeling0:57that number could climb to between 3.50:59and 4.2% by September. Two critical1:02energy arteries are under threat. In the1:04Red Sea, Houthi fighters are attacking1:06Saudi oil tankers. In the Strait of1:08Hormuz, the US-Iran war has disrupted1:11the passageway that carries roughly 20%1:13of the world's oil. Lagarde ordered1:14staff to model three scenarios:1:16baseline, adverse, and severe ahead of1:19the September decision, and the adverse1:21scenario alone could push inflation well1:23above 4%. The question now is who pays?1:26European mortgage holders face higher1:28borrowing costs if the ECB follows1:30through. Renters and consumers are1:32already seeing energy bills climb as1:33companies pass through costs. Traders1:35are pricing in two to three more rate1:37increases over the coming year, far more1:39than the three total hikes the ECB's1:41June projections had assumed. Lagarde1:43dismissed any talk of stepping down1:44early, saying she will serve her full1:46term through October 2027. Quote, "When1:50there are clouds on the horizon, the1:51captain stays on the ship." The next key1:53date is September 10th, when the ECB's1:55Governing Council meets in Frankfurt,1:57with oil at $100 and inflation still2:00well above target, all eyes will be on2:02whether Lagarde and her colleagues pull2:03the trigger on another rate hike and how2:05many more households end up paying the2:07price.Explore with HeyDexThe shortThe short ↗