Conflict · Moscow probes NATO resolve · ArchiveRussia's Shadow War: How Moscow Probes NATO's ResolveAired July 31, 2026 at 7:26 PM UTCWritten September 7, 2026 at 9:22 PM UTCRead the write-upThis storyTranscript · LOADING0:00A Russian KH-101 cruise missile crashed0:02on Polish soil yesterday. Tom Karako,0:05director of the Missile Defense Project0:07at CSIS, says it's not an isolated0:09mistake. He describes a pattern of0:11Russian sabotage, explosions, and arson0:13across Europe, a deliberate campaign0:15designed to test and probe how Poland0:17and other NATO allies will respond.0:19Karako says the recent KH-101 crash is0:21probably a mix of deliberate provocation0:23and errant missile. He points to last0:26September when Russian forces sent about0:2720 drones into Polish airspace. Some0:30were shot down. In earlier conflicts,0:32Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles also0:33ended up on Polish territory, but Karako0:36says the frequency and nature of these0:37events point to a systemic Russian0:39effort. These actions, Karako argues,0:41are not random. They are designed to0:43test NATO's reaction thresholds and0:45expose weaknesses in the alliance's0:47response. The probing isn't limited to0:49Europe. Karako notes Russian bombers0:51sometimes fly toward Alaska to gauge US0:53detection and response capabilities.0:55These flights serve the same strategic0:57purpose, creating uncertainty and0:59forcing the US military to reveal its1:01alert posture. Karako sees routine1:03murders as representatives of a broader1:05change within the alliance. After years1:08of searching for accommodation with1:09Moscow, NATO's leadership is now1:11adopting a more confrontational stance.1:13Whether the latest Polish incursion was1:15intentional remains an open question,1:18but the pattern, Karako says, is clear.Explore with HeyDexFollow via RSSThe shortThe short ↗