Conflict · Ukraine · Archive20-35 Minutes: The Brutal Math of Russia's War in UkraineAired August 1, 2026 at 10:48 AM UTCWritten September 7, 2026 at 9:22 PM UTCRead the write-upThis storyTranscript · LOADING0:00According to Russian military bloggers,0:01the estimated survival time for a0:03Russian fighter on the battlefield is0:05now just 20 to 35 minutes. The Institute0:08for the Study of War estimates Russia0:09seized just 0.8% of Ukrainian land last0:12year. Foresight Frontline Reporting0:14clocks Russian advances at 50 m per day0:17near Kostiantynivka, 70 near Pokrovsk,0:20and 90 near Sloviansk, distances a0:22person can cover on foot in under a0:24minute. UK intelligence says nearly0:26500,000 Russian soldiers have died since0:28the war began.0:30The city of Bakhmut, captured in May0:332023, cost some 100,000 casualties. Now,0:36in May of this year, Russia actually0:38lost net territory for the first time0:40since that fight began. Channel 4 news0:42correspondent Paraic O'Brien reports0:44that the frontline city of Kramatorsk0:46has emptied out with roughly 50,0000:48soldiers hidden underground, driven0:50there by the constant threat of drones.0:52The arithmetic is now in plain view: 200:55to 35 minutes of survival, 50 to 90 m of0:58advance, and hundreds of thousands dead.1:00Whether either side can sustain those1:01ratios long enough for the math to1:03produce a decisive outcome, that is the1:05question neither side has yet answered.Explore with HeyDexThe shortThe short ↗