Politics · Texas Senate race · ArchiveFox News Poll: Democrat Talerico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate RaceAired August 1, 2026 at 11:57 AM UTCWritten September 7, 2026 at 9:22 PM UTCRead the write-upThis storyTranscript · LOADING0:00A new Fox News poll shows Democrat James0:02Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton0:0451% to 48% in the Texas Senate race. The0:07three-point margin sits inside the0:09survey's own margin of error, making0:11this a statistical dead heat. In 2024,0:14Donald Trump carried Texas by 14 points0:17that a Democrat now holds even a0:18statistical tie in a statewide race is a0:21political shockwave neither party can0:23ignore. Talarico is a former state0:25representative described by analysts as0:27a rising star. He is campaigning on0:29promises to fight corporate control and0:31address the cost of living crisis.0:32Paxton, the sitting Attorney General,0:34enters the race carrying legal trouble0:36and personal baggage that analysts say0:37could weigh on his candidacy. The0:39practical consequence is already clear.0:41If Texas requires defending, national0:44Republicans will have to divert money0:45and attention from states they cannot0:47afford to lose. For Democrats, a0:49credible number in Texas suggests the0:51Senate map may be wider than their own0:53strategists assumed. The margin of error0:55means Paxton could just as easily be0:57ahead. And the next independent poll0:59will either confirm this movement or1:00extinguish it. For now, both campaigns1:03must operate as though the race is real.Explore with HeyDexThe shortThe short ↗