Business · Arab aviationDoha Arab airline losses: AACO forecasts $4.3 billion deficit in 2026Written November 5, 2026 at 9:44 AM UTCTranscript0:07Arab Airlines face a four point three billion dollar combined loss forecast.0:12Conflict is disrupting flights through hubs that connect passengers and freight far0:17beyond the region.0:18Their airline association expects passenger demand to fall faster than capacity.0:24How much will those pressures change the final losses and which carriers will bear0:28them?0:29The Arab Air Carriers Organization expects its members to lose about four point0:34three billion US dollars in calendar year twenty twenty-six.0:38The association represents thirty-nine airlines across the Middle East and North0:43Africa, including Qatar Airways, Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Gulf0:49Air.0:49More than two hundred executives and industry stakeholders gathered in Doha for the0:53Qatar Airways hosted meeting.0:56Delegates received the annual Outlook O'Clachonly at the association's fifty-ninth1:01annual general meeting, whose working sessions took place November third.1:06After the November2nd opening, the forecast reverses a strong year for these1:10airlines.1:11In2025 , members earned a ten point eight percent net margin.1:15Passenger traffic grew seven point six percent, while the seats offered, adjusted1:21for distance flown, increased five point eight percent, cargo traffic grew four1:26percent.1:26Members earned about eleven billion US dollars in twenty twenty-five.1:31AACO now projects a four point three billion dollar loss for twenty twenty-six.1:36That's a fifteen point three billion dollar deterioration in their combined bottom1:41line, with the current year's final results still ahead.1:45AACO Secretary General Abdul Wahhab Tefaha said the strong momentum at the start of1:50twenty twenty-six didn't continue.1:53The regional crisis began in late twenty twenty-three, and its widening impact this1:58year has disrupted operations and put renewed pressure on the transport network.2:02Airlines measure passenger demand.2:05By multiplying paying passengers by the distance they travel, passenger demand is2:10forecast to fall ten point three percent against a four point seven percent2:15reduction in capacity.2:16Cargo traffic is expected to shrink five point two percent.2:21That cargo measure combines freight weight and distance, capturing the transport2:26work these airlines perform for businesses.2:28AFAO puts passenger load factor, the share of seat capacity actually used at2:34seventy-seven percent this year against eighty-one point eight percent in twenty2:39twenty-five.2:39It also forecasts a minus two point seven percent operating margin.2:44That measure of earnings from running the business stood at positive eleven point2:49eight percent in twenty twenty-five and eleven point three percent in twenty2:53twenty-four.2:54Fuel share of member operating costs rises from twenty-seven point nine percent in2:59twenty twenty-five to a forecast thirty-seven point three percent this year.3:04That's nine point four percentage points more of the cost bill.3:08Worldwide, the comparable shares are twenty-five point four and thirty-one point3:12four percent.3:13Higher energy costs meet weaker demand, squeezing the money left from each flight.3:19The consequences extend to businesses using the region's hubs to move goods, and to3:24travelers connecting between continents.3:27Airlines also face delivery delays that make renewing their fleets harder and more3:32expensive.3:32Worldwide airlines are still projected to earn about twenty-three billion US dollars3:37in net profit this year.3:39That would be their lowest profit in twelve years when the COVID period and its3:43aftermath are excluded.3:45AACO members face a much sharper collective reversal.3:49Worldwide passenger demand growth is expected to slow from five point three percent3:54to two point one percent.3:55Global cargo growth falls from three point three percent to no more than zero point4:00seven percent.4:01Both forecasts still show expansion.4:04While AACO expects its members' traffic to contract, global passenger capacity is4:09forecast to grow one point six percent.4:12With demand growing faster, worldwide load factor is projected to rise from4:17eighty-three point five to eighty-three point nine percent.4:21The global operating margin stood at seven point two percent in twenty twenty-five.4:26The regional and worldwide forecast describe very different operating conditions.4:31Manufacturers' global aircraft order backlog stood at seventeen thousand two hundred4:35and fifty aircraft in twenty twenty-five.4:38AACO expects it to exceed eighteen thousand by the end of twenty twenty-six.4:43Delayed aircraft, engines and spare parts constrained fleet renewal and increase4:48airline members had fifteen hundred eighty-seven aircraft in service at the end of4:52July twenty twenty-five.4:54They received one hundred twenty-one aircraft during that year, and their combined4:59order backlog reached one thousand seven hundred thirty-four.5:02AACO's executive committee.5:04Has directed a working group to study shared spare parts inventories with possible5:09cooperation on procurement.5:11Qatar Airways Group Chief Executive Hamad Al-Qatar, who chaired the meeting, said5:17Middle East Aviation supports as many as four million jobs.5:21He put its contribution to the regional economy at about two hundred and ninety5:25billion US dollars.5:26The sector's longer-term economic contribution is projected to reach seven hundred5:30and thirty billion dollars by twenty forty-three.5:33Arab airports handled more than five hundred million passengers in twenty5:38twenty-five, an increase of eight point one percent.5:41That airport total reaches beyond AACO members' own traffic, showing the wider5:46exposure of tourism, trade, and workers to interrupted connections.5:50AACO also opposed a proposed expansion of Europe's carbon trading rules from twenty5:56twenty-nine.5:57It would cover flights departing the European Economic Area for countries outside6:02it.6:02Within five thousand kilometers of Frankfurt Airport, the airlines say the expansion6:08would infringe on national sovereignty.6:10Tefah warned of overlapping charges under European rules, and Corsia, the6:15International Aviation Carbon Offsetting System.6:19AACO wants emissions reductions recognized across those systems, including6:24reductions linked to mandated sustainable fuel.6:27Its resolution calls for globally coordinated measures that avoid charging airlines6:32twice for the same emissions.6:34Qatar Airways says it's increasing winter flights to major European destinations,6:39including London Heathrow and Frankfurt.6:42It also plans more flights across Asia, Africa, and Australia.6:46Emirates says it has restored about ninety-one percent of capacity and nearly6:51ninety-eight percent of its network.6:53Emirates is also continuing fleet retrofits backed by seven billion dollars of6:59investment.6:59In October, it launched a daily Helsinki service, adding to its Nordic connections.7:05Those expansion plans sit alongside a combined forecast that AACO expects to vary7:11considerably with hub location and exposure to conflict-affected markets.7:17The final2026 outcome will depend on how conflict, fuel costs, and7:22operational disruption develop through the rest of the year.7:26AACO hasn't allocated the projected four point three billion dollar loss carrier by7:32carrier.Read the articleStory timelineHeyDex
