Economy · Ukraine's $32.6B gapUkraine's $32.6B gap — EU decision?Aired September 5, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTCWritten September 5, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTCRead the write-upThis storyTranscript · LOADING0:00Ukraine's 2027 budget is short $32.6 billion before a hard winter.0:05Its finance minister says the country is close to the liquidity crunch that nearly0:09broke it in 2022 and that without new money Kyiv may have to postpone non-war0:13payments and cut spending.0:14The question will the European Union now do what it has so far refused?0:18Unlock Russia's frozen billions to close the gap.0:21The arithmetic behind the warning is stark.0:23Ukraine's baseline need for outside money runs about $50 billion a year.0:27For next year, the uncovered financing gap is roughly $32.6 billion, a figure the0:32finance ministry shared with an international monetary fund mission that spent three0:36days in Kyiv and one built on a budget that assumes the war lasts through all of0:392027.0:41Every number is framed by another year of fighting.0:43The IMF team examined the figures and left the shortfall standing.0:47That is the hole Ukraine has to fill while the war grinds on.0:50The fear is not just arithmetic.0:52Marchenko says Kyiv may have to postpone non-war payments and cut spending before a0:57very difficult winter, with keeping soldiers paid, the state running, and homes1:01heated competing for money that is not there.1:03So the war effort needs 50 billion dollars a year, and 32.6 billion of next year's1:09financing is still missing.1:11On top of that, the Defense Ministry is pressing for 27 billion dollars, around 23.21:16billion euros this year.1:18So Kyiv can buy weapons now rather than wait for aid that may arrive late.1:22And the large European package approved over Christmas is being spent down faster1:25than planned.1:26There are real disagreements in the numbers.1:28The same 2027 gap also appears quoted in Euros rather than dollars.1:3332.6 billion either way, just a different currency.1:37The 27 billion figure is not settled either.1:39It is tied to a defense ministry push to buy weapons early and separately to a1:44defense budget shortfall.1:45The frozen asset totals differ by date, scope, and currency.1:48Even the finance minister's name appears in three spellings.1:51Europe's grand 90 billion euro answer to Ukraine's funding crisis lasted only about1:56eight months after it was approved over the Christmas holidays.1:59Kyiv is now asking to pull forward money originally scheduled for 2027.2:03And that is what has reopened the argument about Russia's frozen money.2:06Here is where Marchenko wants Europe to go.2:09Rather than ask governments for more money, he is urging EU finance ministers to2:13think outside the box and to do something they have so far declined: transfer2:18custodianship of Russia's frozen central bank assets from the Belgian depository2:21Euroclear to the European Union itself.2:24The money has been frozen since the invasion, and roughly 195 billion euros of it2:29sits inside Euroclear in Belgium.2:31The EU's own accounting puts Russian sovereign assets at about 210 billion euros,2:36and across Western accounts, roughly 300 billion dollars of central bank reserves2:39are immobilized.2:41Belgium has resisted any move, warning it would open a Pandora's box of legal2:45exposure, and the Bank of Russia has a lawsuit against Euroclear Bank running before2:49the Moscow Arbitration Court.2:51The dispute has quietly become a solvency and credibility crisis for Euroclear2:55itself, and a live argument about what it costs any sovereign to park reserves in2:59the West.3:05He dates the danger to the first year of the full-scale war, when Kyiv ran out of3:10cash.3:10The financing Europe assembled then is running thin now, and with the 90 billion3:15Euro package draining faster than planned, the gap he is warning about is exactly3:19the one a shift in custody is meant to close.3:21The European Union has not agreed to any of it.3:24No custody transfer is in place, Belgium is holding the line, and the Moscow court3:28case is unresolved.3:30With a $32.6 billion hole in 2027 and a $27 billion arms bill to front load,3:36Ukraine's ability to keep soldiers paid, keep the state running, and keep homes3:39heated this winter rests on Europe agreeing to a mechanism it has so far refused.Explore with HeyDexFollow via RSSThe shortThe short ↗