ReportDiesel Hits $6, Trump Blames Ukraine: Is He Right?Aired September 15, 2026 at 10:17 AM UTCWritten September 15, 2026 at 10:19 AM UTCRead the write-upThis storyTranscript · LOADING0:11Diesel just hit $6 a gallon in the United States for the first time.0:16That's a 60% jump in a year.0:18It's the fuel that moves the economy.0:20Trucking, farming, construction, and shipping all run on it.0:24Every jump lifts the cost of getting goods to shelves, bringing in harvests, and0:28moving supplies.0:29This isn't just a number at the pump.0:31It's a cost that ripples through the entire supply chain.0:34Now the president says Ukraine is to blame.0:36Is he right?0:37President Trump is publicly blaming Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for the0:41record prices, and he's demanding Kyiv stop hitting diesel fuel.0:45Energy analyst Olga Kakova says that's only part of the story.0:48Trump's demand puts the blame on a wartime ally, while the market data points0:52elsewhere.0:53The president specifically called on Kyiv to stop the strikes on Russian diesel0:57infrastructure, saying they're driving up prices worldwide.1:00Kakova points out that the Strait of Hormuz carries about 10% of the world's1:04seaborne diesel, while Russian exports at their peak account for only 2-3% of global1:09demand.1:10In other words, what Ukraine can affect is a fraction of what the Middle East1:14controls.1:15So which matters more?1:16The expert puts the weight on the choke point.1:18Kokova says the market data points to the Middle East and the tightness of the1:22global refining and export system, not Ukrainian drones.1:26American refineries are already running at 95 to 97 percent capacity, and diesel1:31exports are near a record 2 million barrels a day.1:34The expert's conclusion, stopping the Ukrainian strikes would bring only marginal1:38relief.1:39Refineries worldwide are already running near capacity, leaving little room to1:43absorb shocks and every rise at the pump gets passed along to everyone who buys1:47goods.1:48The President's target is Russia's fuel exports, but the biggest pressure point is a1:51narrow waterway far from Ukraine, the Strait of Hormuz, where tankers thread through1:55on their way to world markets.1:57The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important waterway for global diesel, and2:01its disruption sends ripples through the entire market.2:04It's the fuel that moves freight, runs farm equipment, powers construction, and2:07drives shipping.2:09The U.S.2:09is producing as much diesel as it can, but much of it is flowing abroad, that2:13tightens supply at home, and it's one reason prices are at record highs.2:17The Middle East war has been squeezing that corridor for months, and that's the2:21pressure the market treats as dominant.2:23The war has disrupted shipping, and the choke point is at the center of it.2:27The war in the Middle East has been a constant source of supply risk, and that risk2:31is baked into the price.2:33Attacks on refineries in the region have taken capacity offline, adding to the2:36squeeze.2:37Those strikes are aimed at Russian fuel infrastructure that sustains Moscow's2:41invasion.2:42The President is asking a country defending itself against a full-scale war to halt2:46them, based on a claim the market data contradicts.2:48Still, there are open questions.2:50The precise share of the price rise linked to Ukraine's strikes has never been2:54quantified, and there's no confirmed response from Kyiv.2:57The analysis rests on a single report, and independent confirmation hasn't been3:01obtained.3:02Without that, the analysis remains one account.3:04So the evidence says Ukraine is a factor, but a small one.3:08The real drivers are the strait of Hormuz, tight refining, and record exports.3:12The President's demand wouldn't lower the price at the pump.3:15So the next time you see a diesel price climb, the cause is more likely a choke3:19point than a drone.Explore with HeyDexFollow via RSSThe shortThe short ↗Related coverageFollow-upOct 18 10:07 UTCTrump Halts Most New Russia Sanctions Before Promised Diesel Relief Is ProvenBackgroundOct 2 16:32 UTCG7 pledges reserve release after U.S. threatens allies' diesel supply