San Juan County’s warning has ended. Saturday’s tide still threatens roads

The county’s coastal flood warning ended at noon PST on Friday, November 13, 2026. The next hazard window is a lower-severity coastal flood advisory, covering 7 a.m. to noon PST on Saturday, November 14. The National Weather Service Seattle expects minor coastal flooding around high tide, rather than the significant flooding forecast for Friday morning.⁠12⁠18

That is a meaningful reduction in the expected severity, not an all-clear for flood-prone property. Saturday’s advisory still calls for tidal overflow along shorelines and low-lying coastal areas. It does not predict flooding across the entire county, and the end of Friday’s warning does not establish which places escaped damage.⁠18

The change is especially clear in the road forecast. Friday’s warning anticipated numerous closures from high tides and storm surge. Saturday’s advisory anticipates only isolated closures. Those are predictions for two separate high-tide periods—not competing counts of roads that actually became impassable. No verified county-specific closure list is available in the evidence supporting this report.⁠4⁠18

The water-height figures require more care than the bulletin’s wording initially suggests. Friday’s possible range was 2.5 to 3 feet; Saturday’s is 1.75 to 2.25 feet. Although the alerts describe those ranges as inundation “above ground level,” they explicitly define that phrase as height above Mean Higher High Water, or MHHW.⁠4⁠18

MHHW is a tidal reference level. The figures therefore describe possible water heights relative to that reference—not measured water standing above the pavement, a home’s floor or the ground at every shoreline property. Neither range means that every coastal location will experience the stated height. Reading Saturday’s forecast as roughly two feet of water across any particular road would give it a precision it does not have.⁠18

Using the same reference makes the two forecasts comparable: Saturday’s range is lower. It does not demonstrate that floodwater has already receded by a particular amount, nor does it establish how much less damage Saturday might cause. Those conclusions would require local observations and an assessment of what was affected.

Friday’s warning described potentially serious consequences: inundation of low-lying homes, businesses and some critical infrastructure, as well as possible shoreline erosion or damage. Those were risks forecasters identified before the high tide, not a confirmed inventory of flooded buildings or damaged facilities. They should not be carried forward as either established losses or an active warning through Friday afternoon and overnight.⁠4

There was observational evidence of coastal flooding in the wider region on Friday morning. In its 9:06 a.m. PST forecast discussion, NWS Seattle said area tide gauges were showing minor to moderate coastal flooding with the high tide. But that discussion did not identify those observations as San Juan County measurements. It cannot establish that the county reached Friday’s forecast range.⁠9

The distinction matters because the official bulletins provide a clearer account of the hazard than of its local consequences. The available record does not establish how many San Juan County roads closed, which homes or businesses took in water, or whether critical infrastructure suffered damage. A lower forecast for the next morning does not fill those gaps.

For Saturday, the practical guidance is straightforward: protect flood-prone property before the morning hazard window, and allow extra travel time because some roads may close. “Minor” describes the expected flooding category; it is not permission to test whether a flooded route is passable.⁠18

The next consequential checks are whether a later bulletin changes the advisory and what the high tide actually does to local access. Until then, Saturday’s outlook is less extensive flooding than Friday’s forecast—not a guarantee that vulnerable roads will stay open.