The 2026 El Niño episode

Что изменилось

• 1.65°CAbove 1850–1900 pre-industrial average
• 16.96°CGlobal mean surface air temperature in August
• 35,000+Excess deaths in Europe's 2026 heatwaves
• August 2026August 2026 averages 16.96°C, tying July 2023 as joint-hottest month at 1.65°C above pre-industrial.
• Nov 2026 – Jan 2027El Niño peak window expected, with some coming months possibly running near 2°C above average.

Тогда оставалось открытым

• No final European excess-death toll covering the full period and region.
• No confirmed peak strength for the still-building El Niño.

За чем мы обещали следить

• Whether winter months approach 2°C above average as Copernicus warned.
• Whether governments act on emissions and adaptation before the next disaster.

Что было известно сначала

• Met Office warned 21 Aug 2026 of likely strongest El Niño in living memory, unprecedented since about 1950.
• Forecast plume pointed to ~3.5°C at peak, with observed 5°C-plus anomalies on 18 Aug.
• Indonesia wildfires already burning hundreds of thousands of hectares; 2027 seen as likely hottest year.

Тогда оставалось открытым

• No single agreed peak value between just above 3°C and near 4°C, and no settled regional breakdown of flood versus drought severity.

За чем мы обещали следить

• Whether the late-year peak reaches the upper tail of guidance and how strongly 2027 heat and rainfall extremes follow.
• How monsoon, farm output and fire losses in 2026–27 transmit into food prices and disaster response.