Disrupted Energy Flows Through Hormuz

Что изменилось

• The explosion was at the waterline on the tanker's left side. The ship kept moving. Its master reported that everyone aboard was safe and accounted for, and that the vessel was continuing out through the Strait of Hormuz under its own power, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.

Тогда оставалось открытым

• The vessel’s verified identity, crew condition, cause of the fire, damage, environmental consequences and final outcome remain unresolved.
• A dated authority or operator update identifying the ship and establishing what happened to the people aboard.

Что изменилось

• 59 of 81Reported projectile strikes along southern route since July 6
• Just over 30Reported regional attacks during October by October 30

Тогда оставалось открытым

• The vessel’s verified identity, crew condition, cause of the fire, damage, environmental consequences and final outcome remain unresolved.
• A dated authority or operator update identifying the ship and establishing what happened to the people aboard.

Что изменилось

• 2Explosive devices reportedly attached to the hull
• 25 nmReported attack position northeast of Khasab

Тогда оставалось открытым

• The vessel’s verified identity, crew condition, cause of the fire, damage, environmental consequences and final outcome remain unresolved.
• A dated authority or operator update identifying the ship and establishing what happened to the people aboard.

Что изменилось

• A third-party captain reported a vessel on fire north of Khasab; UKMTO advised cautious transit while authorities investigate.

Тогда оставалось открытым

• The vessel’s verified identity, crew condition, cause of the fire, damage, environmental consequences and final outcome remain unresolved.

За чем мы обещали следить

• A dated authority or operator update identifying the ship and establishing what happened to the people aboard.

Что изменилось

• Traffic collapsed from more than 100 vessels a day to just five, among the worst shipping disruptions in decades.
• A post-deal peak of 275 weekly crossings in late June fell 64% to 98 by early August, then to single digits.
• Some vessels switch off transponders in transit, making exact flow counts uncertain.
• Mediators are pressing Tehran for conditions to restore normal traffic as Iran-Oman route talks advance.

Тогда оставалось открытым

• No verified barrel-per-day flow, insurance rate, reserve-release total, or reopening date can be established from these sources.
• No confirmed count of how many transits are coordinated, escorted, or shadow-fleet movements.

За чем мы обещали следить

• Whether Tehran's conditions for normal traffic become a negotiable offer.
• Whether the Iran-Oman shipping-route talks produce a corridor insurers and owners will use.

Что изменилось

• Vessel crossings fell from 275 in late June to 98 in early August to a five-day average of 10.
• More than 500 commercial vessels are stranded in the Gulf.
• The 60-day U.S.-Iran negotiating period expired around Aug. 17 with no extension announced.
• The IEA cut its 2026 supply forecast by 600,000 bpd to a 4.3 million bpd decline and forecast a 1.6 million bpd demand decline.
• More than 4 million bpd is moving around Hormuz, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE best placed to bypass.

Тогда оставалось открытым

• No verified pre-war Hormuz flow total, largest-disruption ranking, Saudi pipeline volumes, China import change, or clean-energy policy effects are established in these sources.
• No durable arrangement for safe passage is in place beyond Iran’s proposed joint statement with Oman.

За чем мы обещали следить

• Whether the Oman channel produces a shipping management plan or the ceasefire simply lapses into open confrontation.
• Whether bypass volumes hold and Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb routes absorb the diverted risk.

Что изменилось

• Two tankers affiliated with Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. were struck by drones while sailing outbound through Hormuz.
• Adnoc confirmed two vessels were attacked while transiting Hormuz on August 13.
• The strike occurred as the UAE state oil company was expanding a shuttle operation to move Iraqi oil.
• Reuters reported Hormuz transit appeared to grind to a near standstill after the attacks.

Тогда оставалось открытым

• No verified casualty account is established in the excerpts provided.
• No verified daily crossing totals can be stated from the truncated data file.

За чем мы обещали следить

• Whether follow-on shipping data confirms a sustained halt or a partial resumption.
• Whether US economic measures or any revival of June-framework talks changes transit risk.

Что было известно сначала

• Transit ground toward near standstill after two more ships were attacked and the U.S. said it could hold a blockade indefinitely.
• Separate U.S. and Houthi attacks hit commercial ships in the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea on Aug. 11.
• Iranian attacks pushed vessels from U.S.-coordinated Omani-waters route toward northern Tehran-controlled route, per 100,000+ AIS reports.

Тогда оставалось открытым

• No verified throughput fraction, world-energy share, tanker names, casualty or damage outcomes, or Iran's reopening conditions.
• No market or price outcome stated in the provided sources.

За чем мы обещали следить

• Whether traffic stabilizes, falls further, or splits durably between Omani-waters and northern routes.
• Whether talks move beyond the reported no-progress position or economic and naval pressure tightens first.