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Continuing story · 2 reports

Russia’s alleged campaign to test NATO resolve

First aired Latest aired

Gone quiet since

Where it stands

Tom Karako described a campaign of sabotage, explosions and arson across Europe as Russia testing NATO’s resolve. On September 23, Poland’s Donald Tusk warned Russia might portray strikes on countries supporting Ukraine as accidents, while France’s Emmanuel Macron said drones, cyberattacks, airspace incursions and sabotage had intensified and ordered protection for critical and defence-industry sites; the alleged campaign remains under assessment.

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Continuing storyDay 54

2 reports77 outlets113 sources2 videos

5 quiet days43 quiet days
  1. Update 1100 Kilometers Into Poland: A Russian Missile Tests NATO's Edge
  2. Update 2Poland and France Warn of 'Accidental' Russian Strikes on NATO

The story so far

  1. Update 254 days later

    Poland and France Warn of 'Accidental' Russian Strikes on NATO

    Warsaw and Paris say Moscow is preparing deniable drone and missile hits to test Article 5, as intel chiefs warn of a months-not-years trial.

    What moved

    • Explosive-laden drone attempt at Leipzig/Halle airport while Ukrainian Antonov present.
    • Tusk in Sejm warns of hybrid drone and missile strikes disguised as accidents.
    • Macron in Paris orders protection plan for critical and defence-industry sites.
    • European intelligence chiefs warn of NATO test in months, not years.

    Still open after this report

    • No verified first target, date, or single intelligence document behind the months-not-years warning.
    • No attribution for the French tax breach to Russia or any named group.

  2. Update 1

    100 Kilometers Into Poland: A Russian Missile Tests NATO's Edge

    A new Russian Kh-101 flew about 100 km over Poland before exploding, drawing NATO condemnation and forcing hard questions about air defence.

    Still open after this report

    • No public evidence in sources resolves whether the crossing was deliberate or errant.
    • No village name for crash site is confirmed beyond a photo-caption reference.

History

  1. Opened1 report

Who's involved

People

  • Donald TuskPrime Minister of Poland (2007–2014; since 2023)2 reports
  • Emmanuel MacronPresident of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 20171 report
  • Friedrich MerzGerman politician, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany1 report
  • Katya AdlerBritish journalist1 report
  • Laurent NuñezFrench official and politician (born 1964)1 report
  • Mark RutteSecretary General of NATO since 2024 and former Prime Minister of the Netherlands (2010–2024)1 report
  • Michal KoudelkaCzech intelligence officer (*1965)1 report
  • Ursula von der LeyenPresident of the European Commission since 20191 report

Places

  • AlaskaAlaska, USA1 report
  • Leipzig/Halle AirportTerminalring 11, 04435 Schkeuditz, Germany1 report
  • Lublin VoivodeshipLublin Voivodeship, Poland1 report
  • Moscow OblastMoscow Oblast, Russia1 report
  • PolandPoland1 report
  • Sejm of the Republic of PolandWiejska 4/6/8, 00-902 Warszawa, Poland1 report
  • SuwałkiSuwałki, Poland1 report
  • Élysée Palace55 Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré, 75008 Paris, France1 report

Every outlet we read on this story

113 sources77 outlets2 videos5 wire copies