Russia’s alleged campaign to test NATO resolve

What changed

• 678,000Individuals and firms in French tax breach
• 27Romanian airspace incursions in 2026
• 80 kmSuwalki Gap border under focus
• Aug 5Explosive-laden drone attempt at Leipzig/Halle airport while Ukrainian Antonov present.
• Sep 17Tusk in Sejm warns of hybrid drone and missile strikes disguised as accidents.
• Sep 18Macron in Paris orders protection plan for critical and defence-industry sites.
• Sep 20-22European intelligence chiefs warn of NATO test in months, not years.

Still open then

• No verified first target, date, or single intelligence document behind the months-not-years warning.
• No attribution for the French tax breach to Russia or any named group.

We said we'd watch for

• Whether Macron's ordered infrastructure plan is published and holds.
• Whether the next damaging drone is treated as accident or as attack answered together.

What we knew first

• Kh-101 flew roughly 100 km over Poland and exploded, injuring no one.
• Missile was built in the second quarter of 2026 in Moscow Oblast.
• Poland summoned Russia's ambassador on July 31.

Still open then

• No public evidence in sources resolves whether the crossing was deliberate or errant.
• No village name for crash site is confirmed beyond a photo-caption reference.

We said we'd watch for

• Whether eastern-flank air-defence rules change after an impact rather than an intercept.
• Whether summoning the ambassador produces any Russian account of the launch.