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Continuing story · 1 report

Cook's six Democratic-leaning House rating shifts

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Gone quiet since

Where it stands

On July 16, Cook shifted six House race ratings toward Democrats, including Texas’s 15th District from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. The reports provide no subsequent rating updates or explanations; the ratings remain subject to change until the 2026 midterm election is held.

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    1. Update 1Cook Political Report Tips Six House Races Toward Democrats as Redistricting Reshapes the Map

    The story so far

    1. Update 1

      Cook Political Report Tips Six House Races Toward Democrats as Redistricting Reshapes the Map

      A leading nonpartisan forecaster puts Democrats ahead for the House majority, but holds the GOP's path open — and the math still lives in the lines drawn on the map.

      Still open after this report

      • Which six specific House races moved in Cook's July 16 update.
      • Whether TX-15 moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on July 16, as opposed to simply becoming more competitive on the ground.
      • A reported cumulative tally of 92 of 113 cross-forecaster rating changes favoring Democrats, including which forecasters contributed.
      • A likely Democratic seat-count range of 214 to 228 and a "three-quarters of scenarios" figure.
      • The role of presidential approval, tariffs, or GOP retirements as named drivers in the publicly available excerpts.

    History

    1. Opened1 report

    Who's involved

    People

    • Bobby PulidoAmerican singer (born 1971)1 report
    • Donald TrumpPresident of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)1 report
    • Monica De La CruzAmerican politician and businesswoman (born 1974)1 report

    Places

    • Texas's 15th Congressional DistrictTexas's 15th Congressional District, TX, USA1 report
    • The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley1201 W University Dr, Edinburg, TX 78539, USA1 report
    • United StatesUnited States1 report

    Every outlet we read on this story

    11 sources9 outlets1 video