The 2026 Texas Senate race

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• Fox News poll released July 30, 2026, showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48%.
• An earlier Fox News poll published June 30, 2026, had Paxton and Talarico tied.
• June 23 UT-Austin poll found the race neck and neck, with Paxton consolidating Republicans and Talarico leading independents and moderates.
• July 28 Texas Public Opinion Research poll had Talarico up 5 points in the race to replace retiring Sen. John Cornyn.
• Aug. 4 Texas Southern poll had Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45%, the third straight poll with Talarico ahead.
• Aug. 7-8 Texas Pulse survey had Talarico ahead 47% to 43% among likely voters, up from a tie in June.
• Paxton dismissed the deficit and accused Talarico of hiding a socialist agenda while running as a moderate.

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• No margin of error, sample size, or field dates were provided in the available Fox poll account, so the precision of the 3-point edge cannot be judged.
• No full verbatim transcript of Paxton's August 6 remarks is available beyond the reported socialist characterization and his stated plan to press his message.

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• Whether the next independent statewide poll confirms a durable Talarico edge or snaps back to a tie.
• Whether Republican crossover support for Talarico persists once the general-election advertising campaign fully engages.