Southeast Alaska’s storm forecast carries danger beyond the 15-hour warning

The warning issued by NWS Juneau at 3:27 p.m. on Sunday, November 8, 2026, forecasts southeast winds of 40–60 knots, gusts up to 70 knots and seas of 31–36 feet between Cape Edgecumbe and Cape Spencer, 15–80 nautical miles offshore. Its storm period runs from 3 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday, November 9. All local times in this article are Alaska Standard Time. These are forecast conditions, not measured waves or reports of damage already suffered.⁠24

For crews deciding whether to leave port, continue a passage or secure a vessel, the distinction matters. Neither the beginning nor the end of the storm-warning category marks the boundary between dangerous and safe water. The warning describes a threat of capsizing, vessel damage and reduced visibility, and gives direct protective advice.⁠24

The offshore area is marine zone PKZ663. It is separate from the neighboring Cape Edgecumbe–Cape Spencer nearshore zone, which reaches out to 15 nautical miles. Their forecasts and warning schedules differ; the offshore numbers are not a blanket forecast for every inlet or coastal location.⁠24

Sunday’s offshore warning lays out a progression rather than a single burst of bad weather. A small craft advisory precedes the first gale, the storm warning follows, and another gale begins immediately afterward.⁠24

A separate coastal waters forecast, issued ten minutes earlier at 3:17 p.m. Sunday, also describes a steep offshore buildup. It has seas rising from 10 feet to 28 feet late Sunday night, as west winds turn southeast and increase to 50 knots late. Rain accompanies the deterioration. For Monday, it forecasts southeast winds of 55 knots, gusts to 70 knots, morning rain, then showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms.⁠3

That coastal forecast puts Monday’s offshore seas at 38 feet, compared with 31–36 feet in the 3:27 p.m. warning. The two products cover the same offshore zone, and the coastal forecast is two feet above the warning’s upper value. The supplied Sunday products do not explain the difference. It should not be smoothed into one number—or described as waves having risen between reports. Both figures are forecasts.⁠3⁠24

The forecast also defines what those sea heights mean: the average height of the highest one-third of combined wind waves and swell. They are neither the height of every wave nor a stated maximum individual wave. Wind forecasts describe the predominant expected speed and direction, with gusts given separately.⁠3

Closer to shore, in zone PKZ643, the 3:27 p.m. Sunday warning schedules storm conditions from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday—a nine-hour period starting six hours after the offshore storm warning begins. It forecasts southeast winds of 35–55 knots, gusts to 65 knots and seas of 26–31 feet.⁠24

That later schedule supersedes the earlier nearshore alert issued at 3:17 p.m., which gave a 5 a.m.–5 p.m. Monday storm period. These are successive products from the same weather office, not conflicting accounts from independent forecasters. The operational distinction is the later start and later finish in the 3:27 p.m. warning.⁠2⁠24

The later start does not offer a calm Monday morning. Before the nearshore storm period, a gale warning runs from 3 a.m. to 9 a.m., forecasting east winds of 35–45 knots, gusts to 65 knots and seas of 20–25 feet. Before that, the small craft advisory carries southeast winds of 20–30 knots, gusts to 40 knots and seas of 8–13 feet.⁠24

The separate 3:17 p.m. coastal forecast gives Monday’s nearshore winds as southeast at 45 knots, gusting to 65, with rain and 32-foot seas. Those figures belong specifically to the out-to-15-nautical-mile zone, despite the forecast’s broader Southeast Alaska heading. As offshore, the sea forecast differs from the later warning: 32 feet in the coastal forecast versus a 26–31-foot storm-period range in the warning.⁠3⁠24

After 6 p.m. Monday, Sunday’s nearshore warning schedules another gale until midnight, with southeast winds of 30–40 knots, gusts to 55 knots and seas of 24–29 feet. A small craft advisory then continues until 6 a.m. Tuesday, still forecasting seas of 18–23 feet. A lower warning category is not a promise of small seas.⁠24

There is another timing trap in the offshore alert. Its message-expiration field falls at 11:30 p.m. Sunday—before the storm’s listed 3 a.m. Monday onset. But the warning’s written schedule and encoded hazard times agree that the storm period ends at 6 p.m. Monday. The early expiration field must not be read as saying the weather threat ends before it begins.⁠1⁠24

The earlier nearshore alert likewise has a message-expiration field before its stated hazard endpoint. For voyage planning, the important information is the applicable zone’s explicit hazard schedule, while recognizing that subsequent forecasts can revise it.⁠2

Sunday’s coastal forecast reinforces the long tail of this event: offshore seas subside from 36 to 24 feet Monday night, then remain at 19 feet Tuesday, with southeast winds of 30 knots and gusts to 45. Nearshore, Tuesday still carries an 18-foot sea forecast. Those are improving forecasts, not benign ones.⁠3

The Sunday products establish neither a vessel casualty nor a port closure. They establish a forecast severe enough to warrant changing voyage plans before encountering it. Later forecasts will need to be checked for revisions to timing and sea heights; the practical lesson already clear from Sunday’s warning is that waiting for the storm label to disappear is not the same as waiting for the danger to pass.⁠24