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ภัยพิบัติ · St. Johns flooding

St. Johns River keeps rising near Geneva as high-water outlook shifts to Monday

Wednesday morning’s reading was half a foot above flood stage near Geneva. The revised outlook puts higher water into Monday, close to a threshold for more significant home flooding and impassable roads.

เขียน ใช้เวลาอ่าน 4 นาที · 17 แหล่งข่าว

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The St. Johns River’s rise near Geneva is becoming a longer wait for higher water, not a threat that has passed. After heavy rainfall pushed this reach above flood stage, Wednesday morning’s forecast shifted the expected high-water level into early next week—slightly lower than the previous outlook, but still close to a level associated with more significant flooding of homes and loss of road access.⁠1⁠6

The river above Lake Harney in Florida’s Seminole County measured 8.5 feet at 8:30 a.m. EST Wednesday, November 4. That was half a foot above its 8.0-foot flood stage. The National Weather Service’s Melbourne office reported minor flooding at the time and forecast moderate flooding over the following days. This is a morning observation, not a confirmed evening or real-time reading.⁠6

8.5 feetObserved Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EST 67
9.8 feetForecast for Monday morning 67
10.0 feetMore significant home flooding and impassable roads 67

The latest verified forecast calls for 9.8 feet Monday morning, November 9, with additional rises possible afterward. That places the forecast water level just 0.2 feet below the warning’s 10-foot impact threshold. It does not establish that the river will reach 10 feet, but neither does it establish Monday morning as the end of the rise.⁠6

A later outlook, not an all-clear

The change between the two warnings is more substantial in timing than in height. Tuesday’s bulletin, issued at 9:02 p.m. EST November 3, forecast 9.9 feet Sunday evening, November 8. Wednesday’s 9:41 a.m. bulletin replaced that with 9.8 feet Monday morning—a tenth of a foot lower, with the expected high water pushed later. The warning says “Monday morning” without printing the calendar date; in this dated bulletin, that means November 9.⁠1⁠6

The lower number should not be read as a settled final crest. Wednesday’s warning explicitly allows further rises after Monday morning and says levels near major flood stage are possible late in the weekend into early next week. That is an outlook for possible worsening, not a declaration that major flooding has begun.⁠7

The observations show the river was still climbing. It rose from 8.3 feet at 8:30 p.m. Tuesday to 8.5 feet at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, a gain of 0.2 feet in 12 hours. Each reading was also the highest recorded during its preceding 24-hour period. Those overlapping windows are not separate daily averages, and the two measurements do not establish a constant rate that can simply be extended through the weekend.⁠1⁠6

All these measurements and thresholds apply to the St. Johns above Lake Harney near Geneva. The warning separately lists bankfull stage at 6.0 feet and flood stage at 8.0 feet. They are different markers; Wednesday morning’s water level had passed both.⁠6

The risk is also losing access

For people in low-lying homes, the consequential number is not just the height on the gauge. The warning describes a point at which flooding becomes more significant inside residential areas and the roads serving them become impassable. At 10 feet, the Weather Service’s impact language is explicit:⁠6

Flooding of homes in low lying areas becomes more significant. Many secondary roads are impassable, limiting access to homes.

National Weather Service Melbourne 6

That is a conditional description of what happens at that level—not a verified report that those particular homes have flooded or those roads have already closed. The available warnings provide neither a count of affected homes nor a list of blocked roads. The distinction matters: residents face a forecast threat to both shelter and access, but the evidence does not support turning that threat into a damage tally.⁠1⁠6

There is also a limit to what can be said about the warning’s status later Wednesday. The morning bulletin continued it “until further notice,” but the available expiration fields conflict. Stormstation247 and WarningVector listings gave an end time of 11 p.m. EST November 4; the newer NWS alert metadata gave November 5 at 11 p.m. EST. Those entries do not establish an explicit cancellation, and the morning wording alone does not independently confirm the warning’s live evening status.⁠2⁠4⁠12

The next statement was scheduled for 11 p.m. EST Wednesday, November 4. That update would be the next stated opportunity to obtain a fresher observation, clarify warning status and see whether the forecast was moving toward or away from the 10-foot impact level. No later reading or cancellation is established here.⁠6

The immediate safety instructions do not depend on resolving a fraction of a foot: do not drive through flooded areas or around barricades, and use caution when walking near riverbanks. The forecast has moved later, but the central concern remains whether rising water will make low-lying homes harder to occupy—and harder to reach or leave.⁠6

แหล่งข่าว10

ในบรรดาแหล่งข่าวที่อ้างอิงที่นี่ National Weather Service เผยแพร่ก่อนเป็นรายแรก โดยเผยแพร่ก่อนรายงานนี้ออกอากาศ 34 ชั่วโมง มีสำนักข่าวอีก 3 แห่งเผยแพร่ตามมา
  1. National Weather Service
  2. Defcon Level
  3. Central Florida Public Media
  4. Warning Vector
  5. HeyDay News

6 สำนักข่าวที่ไม่ระบุวันที่:NOAAUSGSAir Sports NetArizona Water Observatoryforth.newsStorm Station 247

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17 แหล่งข่าว จาก 10 สำนักข่าว· อ้างอิงมากที่สุดก่อน

ตามที่ออกอากาศ
  1. The St. Johns River climbed half a foot above flood stage.
  2. The forecast brings it close to a level where flooding worsens for low-lying homes and roads become impassable. Residents along this reach face rising water into early next week.
  3. Will the river reach the point where more significant flooding threatens homes and cuts off road access?
  4. Heavy rainfall pushed the river higher near Geneva, in Florida's Seminole County. The affected stretch is the St. Johns above Lake Harney. The measurements and flood thresholds here apply to that reach of the river.
  5. The river measured 8.5 feet at eight-thirty Wednesday morning, November fourth. Flood stage here is 8.0 feet. That puts the observation half a foot above the flooding threshold. Minor flooding was occurring, with moderate flooding forecast.
  6. That measurement describes Wednesday morning's conditions. A fresher reading hasn't been confirmed, so it doesn't tell us how high the water stands this evening.
  7. The river rose from 8.3 feet Tuesday evening to 8.5 feet Wednesday morning, a gain of 0.2 feet in twelve hours. Each observation was also the highest reading in its preceding twenty-four-hour period.
  8. The warning lists bankfull stage at 6.0 feet and flood stage at 8.0 feet. Those are separate markers. Wednesday's water level had passed both, and the forecast called for it to keep climbing over the next few days.
  9. The earlier forecast put the river at 9.9 feet Sunday evening. Wednesday's revision calls for 9.8 feet Monday morning, November ninth. That's a tenth of a foot lower, with the expected high-water level shifted into early next week.
  10. The river could rise farther after Monday morning. The outlook also allows for water approaching major flood stage late this weekend into early next week. Monday's forecast level therefore leaves open how high the river will ultimately rise.
  11. At ten feet, flooding of low-lying homes would become more significant, and many secondary roads would be impassable. That could limit people's access to their homes. These are the expected consequences at that level; those particular impacts haven't been confirmed.
  12. The Monday forecast is 0.2 feet below that impact level. Further rises could close that gap, but the forecast doesn't yet say the river will reach ten feet.
  13. The morning bulletin continued the warning until further notice. Its expiration fields conflict, and the warning's live evening status isn't clear. The next statement was scheduled for eleven tonight, when residents could get a newer observation and forecast.
  14. Motorists should stay out of flooded areas and never drive around barricades. People walking near riverbanks should use caution. The rising water threatens both low-lying homes and the roads people depend on to reach them.

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