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Black Sea Grain Ports Hit on Both Sides as Exports Plunge
Tit-for-tat strikes on Novorossiysk, Izmail and Ust-Luga shut terminals and emptied sea lanes, cutting Ukraine's grain exports by more than three-quarters.
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- Ukrainian grain exports fell 76% year over year to 201,000 metric tons.
- No vessel traffic entered Odesa region deepwater ports in August, and two Novorossiysk grain terminals were suspended.
- Ukraine struck Ust-Luga on Aug. 14, damaging two processing plants, according to Ukraine's General Staff.
- Ukraine's farm minister said exports were at 30% of required volume in early August and would not exceed 50% without restoring Black Sea operations.
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- No independent assessment exists of the scale of damage at Izmail, Ust-Luga or Novorossiysk or how long restrictions will last.
- Whether stalled harvests can be stored, rerouted overland, or moved later in the season remains unresolved.
สิ่งที่เราบอกว่าจะจับตา
- Whether Black Sea operations resume or the Baltic, Caspian and Danube workarounds can carry the load.
- Whether world wheat price rises persist if Black Sea volumes stay curtailed.