Mexico Ends Trudy’s Coastal Warnings, but Dangerous Surf Persists

Mexico discontinued all coastal watches and warnings on Sunday, October 18, 2026, even as Trudy remained a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. The change reflected a storm moving away from the mainland—not an ocean that had become safe.⁠85

At 21:00 UTC, the National Hurricane Center placed Trudy about 180 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo and 105 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes. Its center had not made landfall, and the forecast kept it offshore. Moving northwest at about 6 mph, the hurricane was expected to begin weakening rapidly during the night. That weakening was still a forecast, not an observed result.⁠85⁠17

That sentence in Advisory 22 superseded the earlier hurricane warning from Manzanillo north to Cabo Corrientes, along with the other coastal alerts, including those for the Islas Marías. But a coastal hurricane warning and a local navigation or beach-access order are different decisions. Ending the first did not establish that the others had been lifted.⁠2⁠85

Trudy’s reported sustained winds had held at 100 mph through Sunday’s position updates while its center moved farther offshore. At 00:00 UTC, it had been about 100 miles southwest of Manzanillo; by 18:00 UTC, about 165 miles west. The newer 21:00 UTC fix put it farther away still. The coast’s improving outlook therefore did not depend on the hurricane having already lost its strength.⁠2⁠14⁠7

Hurricane-force winds extended up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds up to 90 miles. The rough-water footprint was considerably larger: seas of four meters extended as far as 150 nautical miles from the center in the northwest quadrant. Those offshore sea conditions are not a measurement of wave height at a particular beach, but they show why distance from the strongest winds is not a reliable test of safety on the water.⁠44

The NHC still allowed for gusts reaching tropical-storm strength along parts of west-central Mexico’s coast and the Islas Marías during Sunday afternoon and evening. Storm-surge flooding was expected to subside during the afternoon and night. Large swells had a longer timetable, with life-threatening surf and rip currents forecast along southwestern and west-central Mexico for another two to three days.⁠85

Rain also remained a concern. The latest forecast called for an additional one to four inches along and near Jalisco’s coast through Sunday night, with localized flash flooding and mudslides possible, especially on steep terrain. A center moving away from land does not undo the risks from rain that continues to fall.⁠85

Earlier guidance had called for four to eight inches across Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, locally about 12 inches. Those figures cover a different area and period from the newer forecast for additional rain in Jalisco; they should not be read as competing estimates of the same thing. Neither forecast establishes how much rain actually fell. No verified rain-gauge total tied to Trudy in Manzanillo or Colima had been established in the reporting available for this assessment.⁠2⁠65

The effects on land were no longer only potential. An October 18 Meteored report, attributing information to civil protection authorities, described flooding, fallen trees and stranded vehicles across the group of communities comprising Colima city, Villa de Álvarez and Manzanillo. Its account established that disruption had been reported by Sunday morning, not that every kind of incident occurred in every municipality or began that day.⁠39

The scale remained unsettled. There was no verified municipality-by-municipality incident count, total of damaged homes or businesses, or financial loss assessment. Nor had a specific landslide incident been confirmed. The distinction matters: actual flooding was documented, while the full damage bill—and several other hazards—remained unestablished.⁠39

Through midday October 18, national civil protection officials reported no deaths or injuries in Guerrero, Michoacán, Jalisco and Colima, according to La Razón’s account. That preliminary assessment was bounded by those four states and that reporting window. It was not a final national casualty tally, and it did not mean there had been no flooding or property impacts.⁠69

Restrictions had already imposed their own practical costs. Manzanillo’s port was reported closed to all navigation, and October 17 reporting continued to describe the port and beaches as closed. Beach-access restrictions covered Manzanillo, Tecomán and Armería, with recreational activities suspended. Those orders affected people whose livelihoods depend on the water as well as visitors hoping to enter it.⁠2⁠5⁠56

Colima also prepared six temporary shelters to receive people. Readiness is what the reporting established—not occupancy. The number of people using those shelters, their capacities and their latest operating status had not been verified. Likewise, the warning cancellation supplied no answer to when the affected port and beaches could reopen.⁠71⁠5

The next expected change was a sharp decline in Trudy’s winds. The NHC’s 21:00 UTC forecast projected 90 mph at 06:00 UTC Monday, October 19, and 75 mph at 18:00 UTC. By 06:00 UTC Tuesday, October 20, winds were forecast at 60 mph—below hurricane strength—then 45 mph that evening. All of those values were predictions beyond the observed 100-mph starting point.⁠17

The projected route took the center away from mainland Mexico and south of Baja California Sur during Monday and Tuesday. Forecasters expected a remnant low by 06:00 UTC Wednesday, October 21, and dissipation by 18:00 UTC October 22, while allowing that both could happen sooner.⁠17

For the coast, the immediate test was less distant: what additional rain and continuing swells would do overnight, and when local authorities would judge navigation and beach access safe enough to resume. Trudy’s offshore retreat was welcome news. It was not, by itself, an all-clear.