More Than 70 Dead in a Day Around Taiz as Yemen's Government Opens Its Offensive

That figure sits underneath the headlines that moved markets on 4 and 5 October. Yemen's internationally recognised, Saudi-backed government announced a campaign to retake all territory held by the Iran-backed Houthis. The Houthis said they had hit Saudi Aramco sites with missiles and drones. Brent crude hovered near $102. Each side is claiming something it cannot yet show. The two things that can be checked are the price of oil and the fact that people are dying.

The announcement came on Sunday 4 October. Reuters, via Al-Monitor, reported it, and The National attributes it to Rashad al-Alimi, who heads the Presidential Leadership Council. It said government forces had struck Houthi targets in Sanaa and Saada.⁠6⁠5 The first reports carried no casualty or territorial detail.

By Monday, Yemeni officials were claiming ground. AP quoted them saying allied forces had recaptured several key areas around the Bab al-Mandab strait, including the town of Dhubab just north of it.⁠13 Reuters, citing military and government sources, added that forces had seized key positions on the strait and taken large parts of Dhubab district.⁠31 The BBC reported pro-government forces saying they had "secured" the strait.⁠24 One secondary account, NDTV's, describes more than 1,000 strikes, Saudi air cover and US intelligence and planning help. It does not say who carried out the strikes, and no other outlet we reviewed repeats it.⁠27

These are official claims, made in the first hours of an offensive. The sources we reviewed show no independent confirmation of territory held, and no casualty figures for the offensive itself. The gains are also an attempt to undo something recent. DW reports that the Houthis took Yemen's Red Sea coast and the strait itself last month, in what it calls their largest land grab.⁠3

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group fired ballistic missiles and drones at Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area of eastern Saudi Arabia. He said the strikes caused large fires and "successfully achieved their objectives."⁠2⁠35 The Houthis cast this as retaliation for Saudi-led air strikes. They put the strikes at 50 in the preceding 12 hours. RT counts at least 110 on Sanaa and other areas.⁠2⁠40 The two figures differ and neither is verified. Houthi-run Al-Masirah TV reported strikes in al-Jawf and Saada and said at least two people were wounded.⁠2

The Saudi-led coalition called the claims about attacking Riyadh "misleading."⁠33⁠37 Its spokesman, Maj. Gen. Turki Al-Maliki, went further.

He said the Houthis were using claims of attacks on Saudi Arabia to divert attention from battlefield losses, particularly around Taiz.⁠36 The excerpts we reviewed contain no statement from the Saudi government or Aramco on damage.

The one physical fact is a fire. An AFP journalist saw flames at an Aramco facility south of Riyadh on 3 October, a day before the Houthi statement.⁠33⁠37 Nothing we found establishes what caused it. Khurais appears only as a Houthi claim. A Houthi-aligned Iranian outlet, Kayhan, says the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea was halted, and nothing else corroborates that.⁠11 Put plainly, there was a fire, there is a claim of responsibility and there is a denial of part of it. No damage assessment exists.

The Taiz toll comes as the Houthis reportedly seized a key route linking the city to Aden and surrounded it.⁠2 The accounts clash on who has the advantage. The coalition says the Houthis are losing ground there.⁠36 Kayhan says the encirclement is tightening and the city is "practically liberated."⁠11 The outlet's wording is ambiguous, but it is sympathetic to the Houthi side. Both cannot be right. Until someone independent can reach the city, the 70-plus figure is the only part of this that is not a boast.

Yemen researcher Hannah Porter, speaking to DW, calls the government's aim highly ambitious. She sees no recent improvement in pro-government capabilities and expects little near-term progress and a bloody stalemate. She also says Houthi control of Bab al-Mandab gives leverage over Yemen's west coast and a narrow passage for oil exports. In her view the conflict is already regionalised, and a negotiated settlement will eventually be needed though talks look distant.⁠3

Her forecast predates Monday's claimed gains, and those gains, if they hold, will test it. Even so, retaking a coastal town and some strait positions in the first day is not the same as showing that these forces can do what the announcement promises. A drive to retake every Houthi-held area, including Sanaa, is a much larger claim than a drive on the coast. Day one proves little about month three.

Brent traded between roughly $101.6 and $102.5 on Monday, depending on contract and timestamp, edging lower. US crude was near $90.⁠15⁠22 The Houthi attack claims and the intensified fighting were cited as supports for prices.⁠16 Pulling the other way were rising Middle East crude exports, a surprise Aramco cut to its November crude prices for Asia, and the G7 plan to release stocks.⁠14⁠16

Bloomberg reported Macron saying G7 partners plan to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months under IEA coordination.⁠1 The oil-market reports we reviewed describe the release but do not mention the IEA, and they differ on whether it has already begun.⁠15⁠21 It was announced alongside the Yemen news, and nothing we found shows it was a response to it. The market is therefore carrying a Yemen risk premium that stockpile releases are blunting. A strait under contested control is a shipping risk, but no actual disruption has been shown.