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The ECB's September rate decision

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    ECB Holds Rates at 2.25%, but Lagarde's September Hike Warning Sends a Clear Signal

    Oil has pushed back to $100 a barrel and a renewed Middle East conflict is keeping energy inflation hot. The ECB paused Thursday, but staff scenarios and a "stay on the ship" moment point to a decision in two months.

    دیکھیں
    • The ECB held its three key rates at 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65%, unanimously, on 23 July 2026.
    • A renewed Middle East conflict has lifted energy costs and pushed Brent crude back to $100.
    • A September rate hike is firmly in play in market and analyst expectations.
    • The specific inflation range in the ECB's adverse staff scenario.
    • The precise incidents behind the latest oil price spike.
    • Whether the Governing Council will move by 25 basis points or hold again in September.
    • Brent crude's trajectory between now and the September ECB meeting in Frankfurt.
    • The next euro area inflation print, which will feed the staff scenarios Lagarde cited.
    • Whether the renewed Middle East conflict de-escalates or broadens before the Governing Council reconvenes.

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افراد

  • Christine LagardePresident of the European Central Bank

مقامات

  • Frankfurt am Main
  • Red Sea
  • Strait of Hormuz