灾害 · 飓风西蒙

飓风西蒙降至3级，但墨西哥沿海尚未解除警报

西蒙的海上路径和减弱的风力，并未结束墨西哥沿海地区的紧急状态。哈利斯科州已有数千人撤离，格雷罗州报告了初步死亡人数，危险降雨仍在预报之中。

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  1. 第 1 次更新飓风西蒙降至3级，但墨西哥沿海尚未解除警报当前位置

西蒙迅速增强，使人们担忧一场强飓风可能于10月10日或10月11日凌晨穿越墨西哥太平洋沿岸。但它的中心沿海岸移动，始终留在海上，风力则有所减弱。最新变化是降级为3级——这并不意味着紧急状态结束。数千人已经离开高风险地区，损失正在统计，预报路径仍显示风暴将转向陆地。1 28 128

截至2026年10月12日00:00 UTC，西蒙的最大持续风速为125 mph，即每小时205公里，阵风更强。其中心位于哈利斯科州卡波科连特斯以南约80公里处，以及科利马州曼萨尼约以西偏北约175公里处。这是本报道00:30 UTC截稿前最新发布的正式预报。尚未确认风暴中心登陆。128

关键事实

  1. 205 km/hUTC午夜时的最大持续风速 128
  2. 5,000–6,000据报从哈利斯科州沿海撤离的人数 163171
  3. 1人死亡格雷罗州初步伤亡情况 149161

区分风暴中心仍在海上与陆地上的实际状况至关重要。美国国家飓风中心称，西蒙内核东部沿海岸掠过时，沿岸可能出现飓风级天气。短期内，风暴中心直接登陆的可能性似乎越来越小，但当局并未向沿海居民宣布解除警报。8 28

西蒙于10月10日至11日夜间达到峰值，风速为155 mph，即每小时250公里，中心气压为928毫巴。到10月11日15:00 UTC，风速降至每小时230公里；到21:00 UTC，降至215公里。三小时后，风暴降为3级，气压升至951毫巴。风暴正在减弱，但仍很强劲，并在有人居住的海岸边缓慢移动。63 29 8 128

因此，先前的描述应视为当时的描述。CBC News在10月10日的报道中称，西蒙达到4级强度，并预计会在当天或次日清晨登陆。Global News于10月11日23:20 UTC发布的报道仍称风速超过每小时240公里，尽管官方21:00 UTC预报早已将风速定为每小时215公里。两篇报道都不能证明风暴中心已经穿越海岸，且其中对风速的描述都已不是最新情况。1 2 8

风力减弱并不能解决降雨问题

从蓬塔圣特尔莫到埃尔罗布利托的飓风警报仍然有效，玛丽亚斯群岛也在警报范围内。埃尔罗布利托以北至特姆佩瓦亚湾发布了飓风观察预警。警报意味着指定区域内某处预计会出现飓风级天气，并不代表每个地点都会出现完全相同的情况。美国国家飓风中心仍提醒：“应尽快完成保护生命和财产的准备工作。”128

降雨预报也必须结合日期和定义来看。CBC News在10月10日称，预计登陆前降雨量为25–50厘米；Global News在10月11日引用的数字则是最高30英寸。这些是发布时间不同、累计范围不同的预报，并非对地面已降雨量的相互矛盾测量。最新预报明确说明了这一区别。1 2 128

预计西蒙将于10月15日周四清晨之前，给科利马州、哈利斯科州、纳亚里特州和锡那罗亚州部分地区带来额外2至4英寸降雨——约5至10厘米。局部额外降雨量可能达到8英寸。另据预报，整场风暴期间，米却肯州、科利马州和哈利斯科州部分地区的局部累计最高降雨量可能达到30英寸，即76.2厘米。这个极端数字既不是还将降下的额外30英寸，也不代表全海岸线的预期降雨量。128

这场降雨将造成危及生命的洪水和泥石流，或加剧任何正在发生的洪水，尤其是在地势陡峭的地区。

美国国家飓风中心 128

预计风暴潮将在中心接近陆地的位置附近及其以东沿岸造成危险，并伴有巨大破坏性海浪。未来几天，涌浪可能在墨西哥西南部和中西部沿岸部分地区引发危及生命的海浪和离岸流。降级描述的是最大持续风速；这并不意味着撤销这些警报。128

居民已撤离；损失开始显现

哈利斯科州民防部门负责人塞尔希奥·拉米雷斯·洛佩斯在10月10日州紧急委员会会议上报告称，已有5,000至6,000人离开沿海高风险地区。他的估算包括有组织的疏散以及自行离开的人。大多数人投靠亲属；据称只有几百人使用正式避难所。这并非精确的避难所入住人数统计。163 171

10月10日，一次有记录的行动将76人从耶拉帕和基米斯托运往巴亚尔塔港。《信息报》和《宇宙报》分别报道了这一人数；NoticiasPV指出，执行运输的是墨西哥海军渡轮Islas Marías 1，并称其于当地时间约15:00抵达第十二海军区。船上有成人、儿童和外国公民，还有宠物。这个数字指的是人数，而非家庭；此次行动应包含在哈利斯科州整体估算之内，而不能自动加在其上。90 93 135

格雷罗州10月11日的初步统计记录了1人死亡、2人受伤。奇尔潘辛戈的死亡事件在10月9日、即西蒙达到峰值之前就已有报道。州政府的官方评估称，阿梅利托斯1区一堵石墙倒塌砸中一处住宅，造成1人死亡。官员认定该住宅已不宜居住，且有很高的坡体移动风险，邻近住宅也面临风险。149 92 161

部分细节仍有出入。Expresiones Guerrero在10月10日的报道中称，71岁的阿尔比诺·莫雷诺·希门尼斯在阿梅利托斯II区遇难，并描述为围墙倒塌。《墨西哥日报》10月9日的报道则称，遇难者是76岁的阿尔比诺“某”，地点在阿梅利托斯1区，并描述为山体滑坡。现有报道无法厘清其年龄、社区名称或土石与墙体移动的完整过程。另有2人在阿卡普尔科受伤，分别涉及一名学生跌倒和拉平索纳一处住宅倒塌。这些是地区初步数字，并非整个飓风影响范围的最终伤亡统计。89 86 149

Quadratín Guerrero在10月11日的评估中列出112处受损住宅、150家被淹商铺、60辆被困或遭水淹的车辆，以及20个市镇发生损失。《Diario 21》10月10日的报道则列出20处被淹住宅。后来的住宅数字涵盖更广泛的损害类别，不能据此认定另有92处住宅被淹。阿卡普尔科的20处和拉乌尼翁的80处被淹住宅属于地方数字，不能再加到全州总数中。149 88

此外，还有电线杆倒塌和供电中断的报告。现有的恢复供电更新涉及特定地点和恢复阶段，无法据此得出格雷罗州或哈利斯科州当前且经过核实的停电人数。风暴造成的损失也没有经核实的金额估算。149 176 177

限制措施仍在实施，路径也将转弯

当局宣布，自10月10日当地时间16:00起，哈利斯科州、科利马州、米却肯州和纳亚里特州共24个市镇暂停非必要出行和活动。这并不表明四州全境一律禁止出行。《墨西哥日报》将这项措施描述为暂停流动的呼吁，而《AM报》称相关规定具有强制性。在没有看到基础指令文件的情况下，其确切法律条款、例外情形和完整市镇范围仍无法确定。184 186 187

纳亚里特州的措施包括要求人们就地避险，涉及巴伊亚德班德拉斯、特皮克和科姆波斯特拉；在6个市镇暂停非必要活动；关闭所有海滩；并自10月11日当地时间午夜起在全州20个市镇禁止销售酒类。该州启用了171处临时避难所；这是预备的接纳能力，并不代表每处避难所都有人入住。另有停课和交通关闭的报道，但完整命令和恢复开放时间尚未确定。188 185 2 192

已知

  • 西蒙仍在海上，沿海警报仍然有效，预报还将出现危险的追加降雨。 128

未知

  • 风暴中心最终是否穿越海岸、最终影响总量，以及疏散居民何时可以安全返家，均尚未确定。

后续

  • 下一份完整预报定于10月12日03:00 UTC发布。预报显示，西蒙将在周一至周二稍稍远离海岸，随后于周三，即10月14日，转向墨西哥海岸。

周三的转向是预报，并非已确认的登陆日期或地点。对离家避险、等待消息的家庭而言，关键问题不只是西蒙是否降了一个级别，而是降雨、山坡、道路和海岸是否安全——最新报道尚未确定这一点。128 28

本报道的消息来源

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播出原貌 29 行
  1. Hurricane Simon still carries 205-kilometer-an-hour winds just offshore.
  2. Jalisco officials say 5,000 to 6,000 people have left high-risk coastal areas. Guerrero's preliminary toll includes one death and two injuries, with more dangerous rain still forecast.
  3. The unresolved danger is whether Simon's center will cross the coast, and when evacuated residents can safely return.
  4. Simon's center is 80 kilometers south of Cabo Corrientes and 175 kilometers west-northwest of Manzanillo. It's moving northwest at just seven kilometers an hour, keeping the hurricane close to Mexico's west-central Pacific coast.
  5. Hurricane-force winds reach outward up to 35 kilometers, and tropical-storm-force winds up to 95 kilometers. Conditions vary within that reach. The eastern part of the inner core is skirting the coast, where hurricane conditions are likely already occurring.
  6. Simon formed south of Mexico around October 7 and rapidly intensified. An October 10 forecast anticipated landfall that day or early the next morning. By Sunday evening, the center was still offshore, and an immediate direct landfall looked less likely.
  7. Simon peaked at 250 kilometers an hour overnight, with a central pressure of 928 millibars. Winds then fell to 230, then 220, then 215 kilometers an hour. The latest reading is 205, bringing Simon down from Category 4 to Category 3.
  8. The latest measurement replaces the earlier descriptions of winds at 240 kilometers an hour or higher. The hurricane warning remains active. A lower wind category leaves the flooding, mudslide and coastal hazards in place.
  9. The hurricane warning stretches from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito and includes Las Islas Marías. A hurricane watch now extends north of El Roblito to Bahía Tempehuaya. Adjacent areas also have tropical-storm watches or warnings.
  10. People within the hurricane warning area face expected hurricane conditions somewhere in that zone. Authorities are urging them to finish protecting life and property immediately. The storm can bring dangerous conditions ashore even while its center stays over water.
  11. An earlier forecast called for 25 to 50 centimeters of rain by the expected landfall. A later forecast cited up to 30 inches. Those figures cover different accumulation scopes. The current forecast separates rain still to fall from the whole-storm maximum.
  12. Simon could bring another two to four inches of rain through early Thursday, with isolated additional amounts of eight inches. Some locations could reach whole-storm totals of 30 inches, or 76.2 centimeters. That extreme figure is a localized forecast.
  13. The additional rain forecast covers parts of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa. The isolated 30-inch storm-total maximum applies to parts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. Mexican forecasts also describe locally extreme rainfall exceeding 250 millimeters in the heaviest areas.
  14. Steep terrain faces a particular danger as more rain falls onto saturated ground. Floodwater can rise, and slopes can fail. Communities already dealing with flooding could see it worsen before the storm moves away.
  15. Dangerous storm surge is expected near and east of where the center approaches land, accompanied by large, destructive waves. Swells could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents for several days. Earlier forecasts described seas reaching eight to ten meters in some places.
  16. Jalisco's civil-protection director says 5,000 to 6,000 people left coastal risk areas by October 10. That includes organized evacuations and people leaving on their own. Most stayed with relatives, while a few hundred went to formal shelters.
  17. The Mexican Navy carried 76 people from Yelapa and Quimixto to Puerto Vallarta aboard the ferry Islas Marías 1. The October 10 operation included adults, children and foreign nationals. Pets traveled with them, too.
  18. The passengers arrived at the naval base around three in the afternoon. The completed operation's count was 76 people, replacing earlier planning estimates of about 80 or 100. That evacuation was part of the broader Jalisco effort.
  19. A man died when a stone wall collapsed in Chilpancingo amid saturated ground. His death was already being reported before Simon reached its peak. Acapulco recorded two injuries, involving a student's fall and a dwelling collapse in La Pinzona.
  20. Guerrero's civil-protection assessment describes a wall falling onto a home in Amelitos 1. Officials declared the dwelling uninhabitable and at high risk from slope movement. Neighboring homes were also at risk. The casualty figures remain preliminary.
  21. Guerrero's October 11 assessment lists 112 affected homes and 150 flooded businesses. It also counts 60 stranded or inundated vehicles, with damage across 20 municipalities. Fallen trees and electricity poles, rockslides and road problems add to the disruption.
  22. An earlier assessment listed 20 flooded homes. The later 112-home count includes broader kinds of damage, so the change doesn't measure 92 newly flooded homes. Acapulco's 20 flooded homes and La Unión's 80 are local components of the statewide assessment.
  23. An earlier estimate put Guerrero's affected electricity customers at about 65,000. A separate service update gave 99.78 percent restoration for selected municipalities in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. Those figures cover different places and stages of recovery.
  24. Authorities told people to suspend nonessential movement and activities in 24 municipalities across four states, starting Saturday afternoon. Separate very-high-danger alerts covered 22 Jalisco municipalities and six in Colima. Those alert counts describe a different geographic list.
  25. The mobility measures were to continue until authorities judged conditions safe for resumption. Nayarit's shelter-in-place instructions named Bahía de Banderas, Tepic and Compostela, along with coastal areas. The precautions disrupted travel, work and schooling.
  26. Nayarit suspended nonessential activities in six municipalities and closed all beaches. An alcohol-sales ban began across all 20 municipalities early Sunday. The state prepared 171 temporary shelters, giving residents places to seek refuge if needed.
  27. Class suspensions affected high-risk areas, including coastal Jalisco. Maritime port closures included Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, and a temporary Puerto Vallarta Airport closure was also reported. These restrictions affected separate parts of the region's transport system.
  28. A direct center crossing hasn't been confirmed. The offshore track has reduced the immediate landfall likelihood, but the coastal warning remains active. Authorities haven't given evacuated residents an all-clear, and Simon's forecast path still bends back toward Mexico.
  29. Simon's forecast takes it somewhat farther offshore Monday into Tuesday. The next full advisory is scheduled for nine Sunday evening. The track then turns back toward Mexico's coast on Wednesday, October 14, with the eventual crossing point and timing still uncertain.

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