灾害 · 伊斯坦布尔洪灾

伊斯坦布尔洪灾死亡人数升至3人，学校停课延长至周五

仍有4人下落不明，2,727人已获疏散。Ayazağa一处工作场所的彻夜救援已经完成，但搜寻工作仍在继续，有关致命电气危险的问题也尚待查明。

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  1. 第 1 次更新伊斯坦布尔洪灾死亡人数升至3人，学校停课延长至周五当前位置

据称，Mahmut Işıldak脱下鞋子，以免鞋子弄湿。这名14岁少年随后赤脚走进伊斯坦布尔Balat街区的积水中，遭到电击。他被送到医院时已失去意识，最终未能获救。155

他的死亡是这场洪灾中首宗确认的人员伤亡；截至10月15日星期四，伤亡人数仍在增加。伊斯坦布尔省长办公室称，在Kağıthane的Sadabat公园旁发现一具男性遗体，确认死亡人数升至3人。另有4人仍下落不明——这一单独统计不包括已找到的遗体。死者身份仍在确认中。16 58

据内政部长Mustafa Çiftçi称，全市已有2,727人获疏散。洪水灌入住宅和工作场所，淹没道路，救援船只彻夜出动。公立和私立学校将持续停课至10月16日星期五，即在周四停课的基础上再延长一天。78 56

关键事实

  1. 3确认的洪灾死亡人数 1658
  2. 4仍下落不明人数 1691
  3. 2,727全市疏散人数 78158

早前的伤亡报道反映的是不断扩大的紧急事件的不同阶段，而非彼此冲突的最终统计。省长办公室10月14日报告1人死亡；Euronews于10月15日报道至少有2人死亡。之后更新的3人死亡数据取代了此前报道。部分报道仍引用2人死亡的数字，但仅凭发布时间无法确定相关官方简报实际上何时举行。1 2 16 74

洪水中潜藏的危险

关于Mahmut之死，事发地点也有一项更正。最初的通报称，触电地点在Fatih的Balat区Çukurbostan公园。之后市政部门澄清，事发地点是相邻私人停车场的车辆入口，靠近Sultan Selim Caddesi。这改变的是报道中的事发地点，并非报道中的死亡原因。33 210

Mahmut是一名hafız，即背诵并记住了《古兰经》的人。有关部门已对他的死亡展开调查，但电流来源和危险责任归属尚未查明。洪水变得致命这一事实本身，并不能证明任何特定个人或机构存在疏忽。149 155 35

第二名死者是一名34岁的男子，身份以S.Y.标示。在Sarıyer的Ayazağa，他试图穿过Dereboyu Caddesi一家招待所附近被洪水淹没的道路时滑倒，头部撞上路缘，未能脱离积水。旁观者将他拉出水中；他在医院死亡。他的全名尚未确认。省长Davut Gül另行报告了3名住院伤者，伤势均无生命危险——这并非伊斯坦布尔所有伤者的完整统计。187 188 74

紧急事件数据表明，最初掌握的情况很快就已不足以反映全貌。当地时间10月14日上午6时至晚8时，相关部门收到2,518份通报，记录了1,277起洪涝事件、15起山体滑坡和47起受困事件。土耳其语原文统计的是事件：这并不能证明恰有47人受困，而部分英文报道将其表述成了确切人数。此外，多份通报也可能涉及同一紧急事件。4 167 26

截至Çiftçi在10月15日举行简报会时，全市收到的灾情通报已达8,815份。另一项市政更新统计了8,515份通报，以及由市政团队疏散或救出的595人。这595人是已被转移至安全地带的人，并非仍受困人数的确定统计；也不能将他们加到更广泛的2,727人疏散总数中。78 59 129

内政部长公布的全市应对数据为46,597名人员、2,288辆车辆和14艘船只。这些数据与此前政府和市政部门的部署涵盖不同时间和机构范围；将其相加会重复计算重叠资源。疏散总人数很高，也不能说明仍有多少住房无法居住，或有多少人尚不能返回家中。158 11

职场救援，而非名人秀场

在Ayazağa的Phoenix Studios，随着水位上涨，工作人员转移到楼上，电力也被切断。据称，园区内外的水深约达2米。歌手Murat Boz估计有200–250人受困；演员Demet Özdemir当时在那里拍摄。两人的名字引起关注，但这场紧急事件关乎的是整个工作团队如何努力留在水面之上。107 108

后续报道说，约有120人在一处上层楼面。这并不能证明已有特定人数成功脱险：这些估算可能针对不同群体、地点或时段。目前没有经过核对的制片厂人员总数可用来衡量这一差异。108 178

强劲水流和现场状况起初令夜间全面疏散变得不安全。AFAD灾害应对队、UMKE医疗救援人员、伊斯坦布尔消防员、海岸警卫队、AKUT志愿者和警察潜水员参与了救援。乘船救援持续至10月15日凌晨，Boz、Özdemir和其他工作人员均被转移至安全地带。有依据的时间线显示，救援从夜间持续到周四；关于Özdemir具体在几时几分获救的报道，尚未得到独立证实。47 44 46

被困在Ayazağa的我国公民也已全部疏散完毕。

内政部长Mustafa Çiftçi，译文 180

Çiftçi的声明明确宣布Ayazağa的疏散工作已经完成，但并非针对具体地点的声明，不能证明Phoenix Studios的每一名人员都已与最终名册逐一核对。不能把这一尚未完成的人员核对工作说成获救工作人员仍受困。需要住宿的人被安置在公共招待所。180

降雨异常强，但破纪录的说法需谨慎

降雨量异常大，但测量数据必须结合各自的时间窗口来看。一组来自30个站点的数据，主要涵盖10月13日午夜至10月15日上午7:30，记录到Beykoz降雨269.5毫米、Sarıyer降雨206.1毫米、Eyüpsultan降雨202.2毫米。更新后的市政数据分别为273.1、208.1和202.8毫米。更新数据系列的确切截止时间尚未确定，因此不能负责任地将这些数值称为单日降雨量。102 126 128

较早的观测数据包括Beykoz–Ömerli的193.84千克/平方米，以及Sarıyer–İTÜ Maslak的124.72千克/平方米。每平方米1千克水相当于1毫米降雨量。但较早读数的完整累计时段不详：较早统计中的数值较低，并不一定意味着数据相互矛盾，也不一定反映风暴最终的峰值。4

省长Gül称，这是伊斯坦布尔自1942年开始气象测量以来降雨量最大的一场风暴——这一比较跨度为84年。市政气象部门的措辞较为有限：自1985年以来降雨量最高的场次之一，或近年来降雨量最高的场次之一。若没有采用相同的历史站点和测量时段，就无法独立验证省长更宽泛的破纪录说法是否具备可比性。降雨异常这一点已经确定；但其在历史上的确切排名仍需谨慎表述。52 6

周五继续停课，搜寻仍未结束

伊斯坦布尔全市的学校停课时间现已延长至周五。这并非全面关闭大学；各大学自行决定安排。增加的一天用于检查、清理，并为可能于10月19日星期一返校做准备；这并不保证每所学校届时都能做好准备，也不代表已作出最终复课决定。56 116 119

10月15日和16日的行政休假适用于特定公职人员：残障员工和孕期员工、退伍军人和残障退伍军人，以及有未满8岁子女的女性。卫生、安全和防洪应对岗位人员不在此列；有未满8岁残障子女的母亲则不论所属单位，均可休假。这既不是所有员工的统一假期，也不是私营部门停工。116 172 174

有关部门建议居民避免不必要的出行，并建议住在地下室公寓的人到别处过夜。对这些家庭而言，疏散意味着要找地方睡觉；对受学校停课影响的家庭而言，还意味着要安排照护。目前尚未确定流离失所家庭的数量及其损失。2

关于Ayazağa，已有疏散完成的声明；但伊斯坦布尔的人员伤亡情况尚未全部查清。最近一次确认的伤亡情况更新显示，仍有4人下落不明；第三名死者的身份以及对致命电气危险的调查仍未有定论。16 58 35

播出原貌 32 行
  1. Flooding in Istanbul has killed three people, and four others are missing.
  2. Rescuers have evacuated 2,727 people as water filled homes and workplaces and submerged roads. Schools across the city will stay closed through Friday, extending the shutdown by another day.
  3. Where have evacuations finished, and what dangers are still keeping people from home?
  4. A man's body found beside Sadabat Park in Kağıthane brought the death toll to three. Officials are still identifying him. Four other people remain missing, a separate count from the man whose body was recovered.
  5. The toll rose from one death to two, then three as the emergency continued. Heavy rain intensified Wednesday, October 14, and flooding disrupted the city through Thursday.
  6. The first identified victim was fourteen-year-old Mahmut Işıldak. He was electrocuted after stepping into standing water in Balat, in Fatih. He reached hospital unconscious, and doctors couldn't save him.
  7. The municipality later placed the incident at the vehicle entrance of a private parking area adjoining Çukurbostan Park. The first announcement had placed it inside the park. The clarified location is near Sultan Selim Caddesi.
  8. Mahmut had reportedly taken off his shoes to keep them dry before walking barefoot through the water. He was a hafız, someone who had memorized the Quran. The Governor's Office opened an investigation. Investigators haven't identified the source of the current or who was responsible for the hazard.
  9. A thirty-four-year-old man identified as S.Y. slipped while crossing a flooded road near a guesthouse in Ayazağa. He struck his head on the curb and couldn't escape the water. Bystanders pulled him out, but he died in hospital.
  10. Governor Davut Gül also said three people were hospitalized with injuries that weren't life-threatening.
  11. Emergency services received 2,518 notifications during Wednesday's daytime and evening tally. They recorded 1,277 flooding incidents and fifteen landslides. They also counted forty-seven stranding incidents. An earlier English rendering mistakenly turned that last figure into forty-seven people.
  12. Emergency notifications can include repeated calls about the same incident. As operations expanded overnight, both the response and evacuation totals grew.
  13. The initial deployment involved 8,000 personnel and 2,000 vehicles and construction machines. The municipality separately counted 8,392 personnel and 2,246 vehicles and machines. Those figures overlap and cover different stages of the response.
  14. Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi's later citywide briefing put the response at 46,597 personnel, with 2,288 vehicles and fourteen boats. Adding the earlier deployments to those figures would count overlapping teams again.
  15. Municipal teams evacuated or rescued 595 people. That count sits within the broader citywide total of 2,727. People needing accommodation were being housed in public guesthouses.
  16. The municipality received 8,515 notifications, while the wider citywide tally reached 8,815. The evacuation total now replaces the earlier estimate of about 2,500. The municipal count describes people brought to safety.
  17. At Phoenix Studios in Ayazağa, workers moved upstairs as water rose around the complex and electricity was cut. Water reportedly reached about two metres in and around the site.
  18. Singer Murat Boz estimated that 200 to 250 people were trapped. Actress Demet Özdemir was there for filming. Both were brought to safety by boat, along with other workers, during rescues that continued into Thursday's early hours.
  19. A later estimate put about 120 people on an upper floor. Those headcounts may cover different groups or moments, so they don't tell us how many had already left. Strong currents initially made a complete nighttime evacuation unsafe.
  20. AFAD disaster teams and UMKE medical rescuers joined Istanbul firefighters, the Coast Guard, AKUT volunteers and police divers. Boats carried stranded workers out as the operation continued through the night.
  21. Çiftçi said the evacuation of people stranded in Ayazağa was complete. Boz and Özdemir are safe. A final reconciled headcount for everyone at Phoenix Studios still hasn't been released.
  22. Beykoz recorded 273.1 millimetres in the updated municipal rainfall figures. Sarıyer recorded 208.1, and Eyüpsultan 202.8. These are accumulated amounts across the storm, and can't be described as single-day totals.
  23. An earlier thirty-station dataset mainly covered midnight October 13 through Thursday morning. It measured 269.5 millimetres in Beykoz, 206.1 in Sarıyer and 202.2 in Eyüpsultan.
  24. Earlier station measurements were lower. Other Beykoz readings ranged from about 242 to about 261 millimetres. A kilogram of water per square metre equals a millimetre of rain, but readings need matching locations and time periods before they can be compared.
  25. Governor Gül called it Istanbul's highest rainfall since measurements began in 1942, an eighty-four-year comparison. Municipal meteorologists used narrower language, describing one of the highest amounts since 1985 or in recent years.
  26. The rain was exceptionally heavy. Its exact historical ranking is harder to pin down without matching stations and measuring periods.
  27. Schools will remain closed Friday, October 16, after Thursday's citywide suspension. The extra day allows inspections, cleaning and preparation for a possible Monday return. Each university administration decides its own arrangements.
  28. Monday, October 19, is the prospective return date. A final reopening decision hasn't been announced.
  29. Administrative leave covers disabled and pregnant public employees, veterans and disabled veterans, and women with children younger than eight. Exceptions apply in health, security and flood-response roles. Mothers of disabled children under eight are covered regardless of unit.
  30. The leave arrangements run through Friday and apply to those specified public employees. Private-sector employers aren't covered by the order.
  31. Residents have been advised to stay home unless travel is essential. People living in basement apartments were advised to spend the night elsewhere. Below-street-level households face that immediate disruption while families also arrange childcare during the extended school closure.
  32. Ayazağa's evacuation has a completion statement, but the citywide search continues. Four people remain missing in the latest casualty update.

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