冲突 · 英国安全威胁

恐怖分子尝试使用人工智能无人机之际，军情五处国家威胁案件量增至四倍

军情五处称，在针对外国国家的调查不断增加之际，恐怖分子已尝试使用人工智能无人机。其最严厉的生物武器警告仍着眼于未来，而正在审理的刑事指控仍有待法律程序检验。

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  1. 第 1 次更新恐怖分子尝试使用人工智能无人机之际，军情五处国家威胁案件量增至四倍当前位置

对军情五处（MI5）而言，外国国家行动的规模已增长至与反恐任务大致相当。其最新年度评估还指出了另一重压力：恐怖分子正试图利用人工智能改进监视和袭击手段，包括使用由人工智能驱动的无人机。该机构既要应对不断变化的工具，也要承担更重的调查工作量——这并不意味着它以新任务取代了反恐使命。10

2026年10月13日，军情五处总干事肯·麦卡勒姆爵士在泰晤士大厦发表讲话时表示，该机构处理的国家威胁案件量在此前十年间增长至四倍。他对人工智能的警告也明确划出了一条同样重要的界线：恐怖分子企图利用人工智能的行为已是军情五处工作的组成部分，但他特别指出、并称为自己最担心被滥用的生物武器情境，尚未成为现实。10

我们发现恐怖分子企图利用人工智能改进侦察和袭击手段，而人工智能无人机又带来了新的变化。

肯·麦卡勒姆爵士 10

据军情五处称，这足以证明有人企图滥用人工智能——并不代表发生过人工智能指挥的恐怖袭击。麦卡勒姆没有提供姓名、日期、无人机型号、案件数量或技术结果，公众因此无法判断这些企图推进到了何种程度。缺少这些细节很重要：企图利用一项技术，与展示出可靠的新型攻击能力，是两回事。10

其他应用则不那么具有推测性。麦卡勒姆说，人工智能已加剧网络攻击者与防御者之间的较量，也能生成针对个人量身定制的宣传和激进化内容。他对生物武器的担忧更进一步：如果防护措施失效，人工智能的帮助可能使专业知识有限的人开发或提升危险能力。但他明确表示，这种滥用情境「尚未成为现实」。这是对哪些事情未来可能变得更容易的警告，并非人工智能制造生物袭击的证据。10 60

他还提出了另一项面向未来的担忧：先进人工智能系统能否可靠地遵循人类意图，即所谓的对齐问题。这是呼吁认真看待系统可能在思考能力上超越人类的可能性，并非声称军情五处发现了能够自主行动的人工智能袭击者。10

工作量数据实际衡量的是什么

增长至四倍这一数字衡量的是军情五处处理的国家威胁案件量。它并不意味着已发生的外国袭击增加至四倍、每项调查都证实了不法行为，或个人面临的风险增长至四倍。由于没有公布案件总数或精确的起止日期，读者无法还原这一比例。俄罗斯、中国和伊朗仍是主要的国家层面关注对象；评估中具体的核心案例涉及俄罗斯和伊朗。10 8

麦卡勒姆还表示，军情五处如今用于应对国家威胁的资源超过冷战时期。这是对该机构资源分配的比较，没有公布经费或人员规模的基数；这并不等于称当今整体国家危险程度高于第二次世界大战以来的每一个时期。天空新闻报道了他对此作出的明确限定。真正重要的结论已足够显著：两项要求严苛的行动任务如今并列，规模大致相当。1 10

在麦卡勒姆看来，俄罗斯仍是「头号侵略者」。他描述了不断升级的破坏活动、网络行动和暴力企图，意在把行动控制在触发北约集体防御的门槛之下。他举出的例子包括：针对波兰能源基础设施的网络攻击；一次因操作失误而未能成功、企图用载有爆炸物的无人机摧毁德国货运飞机的行动；以及一起被挫败的美国暗杀阴谋。他没有提供更多日期或指明受害者；他没有说德国飞机被摧毁，也没有说针对美国人的杀害已经发生。10

他说，自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，国际上近1,000名俄方人员被驱逐，已大幅削弱其传统的秘密网络。莫斯科转而利用受雇的罪犯和缺乏经验的志愿者，其中包括与俄罗斯军事情报部门有关联的格鲁志愿兵团。这类招募可能使外国国家行动渗入普通工作场所，而不必有可识别的外国特工现身。麦卡勒姆还谈到企图干预选举，以及利用社会分歧的行动，同时区分了干预企图与实现莫斯科想要的选举结果。10 20

其中一项指控即将进入英国审判程序。约书亚·卡米奇在9月依据《国家安全法》受到起诉，罪名涉及据称准备破坏斯温顿一座无人机工厂。检方指称，他协助外国情报机构，并与一名据称关联格鲁志愿兵团的人士联系。他否认参与这一据称与俄罗斯有关联的计划。据报道，案件将于1月举行审前听证，随后定于2027年4月19日起在温彻斯特刑事法院进行为期三周的审判。这些指控均不构成有罪认定。91 89 170

伊朗相关指控与尚未审结的刑事案件

麦卡勒姆称，伊朗的目标正扩展到更难攻击的对象，包括军事设施，同时还威胁犹太社区、伊朗异见人士和伊朗媒体工作人员。在此前十二个月中，与伊朗有关联的行动已导致英国逮捕50多人。10月13日的报道表述各不相同：BBC新闻最初报道50人，第四频道新闻也报道50人；ITV新闻则称50多人。麦卡勒姆发表的演讲和BBC随后发布的报道采用了更完整的说法——「50多人」。这些是逮捕人数，并非定罪人数，也不代表经证实的独立阴谋数量。9 6 7 4 10

当天的报道在程序信息是否完整方面也有差异。第四频道称，两名伊朗籍人士近期因涉嫌参与曼彻斯特阴谋而被捕；ITV则称两人已被起诉。警方记录显示，更完整的情况是：萨拉姆·阿赫马迪扬和拉赫曼·萨利希于9月20日被捕，并于10月2日被控准备实施恐怖主义行为。仅称两人被捕，遗漏了之后的法律程序进展。6 7 51

检方指称，两人策划使用自制爆炸装置，并对希顿公园犹太会堂和曼彻斯特犹太博物馆进行侦察；他们还与一名海外第三方联系，该方被评估为很可能位于伊朗。这些仍是指控，并非已证实的行为，也不是司法机关认定伊朗政府下令的结论。两人均被还押候审，定于10月23日在中央刑事法院出庭。49 164

我们在10月9日报道的费尔福德调查也有最新进展，当时七名男子获准保释，尚未受到起诉。截至10月17日，法律状态仍未改变：七人均处于警方保释之下，没有经核实的后续起诉或保释条件变更。警方在与最初逮捕行动相关的货车中发现汽油或助燃剂，但未发现爆炸物。这些发现不能证明有罪，也不能证明有人指挥了据称的计划。126 128

变化在于政府公开归因的说法。10月12日，首相安迪·伯纳姆在议会表示，这起疑似阴谋极有可能是在伊朗协调的，几乎可以肯定是由伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队指挥的。这是政府的情报评估，并非起诉指控或法院认定。麦卡勒姆随后称费尔福德事件「并非孤例」，但由于调查仍在进行，他没有披露行动细节；他也没有公开说明能够证实这项具体归因的证据。151 15

保护本身成为一项使命

更广泛的恐怖主义警告并非新近宣布的威胁级别上调。联合恐怖主义分析中心于4月30日将英国威胁级别从「严重」上调至「严峻」，并于5月1日公布；麦卡勒姆讲话时，级别仍为「严峻」。「严峻」意味着袭击很可能发生，并不表示当局已公布特定目标或日期。35 36 40

麦卡勒姆说，极右翼恐怖主义是威胁上升的重要因素，越来越多案件中，反移民和反穆斯林的不满演变成了恐怖主义意图。他举例说，几个月前，英国一名13岁的极右翼激进化少年遭到调查；调查所获得的信息帮助一个国际伙伴阻止了一起致命袭击。该少年和相关国家均未具名，这也不是一项已公布的定罪结果。10

基地组织和伊斯兰国也在继续指挥和煽动袭击。讲话提及的已结案案件包括：三名伊斯兰极端分子于2月被判有罪，罪名是策划针对曼彻斯特犹太社区、使用自动武器进行的大规模枪击；以及一名来自因弗克莱德的16岁少年因企图袭击当地伊斯兰中心被判处十年监禁。2月的定罪案件与阿赫马迪扬和萨利希尚未审结的诉讼彼此独立。7

军情五处已经开始采取技术应对措施。其人工智能威胁评估中心于2026年成立，设在该机构内部，并汇集人工智能安全研究所、国家犯罪局和国家网络安全中心的专业力量。该中心的任务是区分夸大的说法与真实能力。军情五处、军情六处、政府通信总部和人工智能安全研究所也正合作应对人工智能安全风险。10 59

保护与国家韧性（称为PROTECT）已成为军情五处的第三项核心使命，与反恐和应对国家威胁并列。这使应对措施不再局限于逮捕：还包括加强相互关联的能源电网、金融系统、供应链和制造业，并帮助社区抵御分裂社会的企图。负责保护工作的机构会就破坏活动、无人机和网络风险提供建议。10

实际检验标准在于，这些保护措施能否跟上工作量和能力的变化。宗教场所、异见人士、工厂和军事设施需要以对手实际具备的能力为依据制定安保措施。这要求认真对待利用人工智能实施滥用的企图，但不能把预测报道成已经发生的袭击；刑事指控则应由法院而非情报讲话来裁定。

播出原貌 37 行
  1. On October 9, we reported seven Fairford suspects were on bail. Britain now blames Iran. All seven remain on bail without charges. Meanwhile, MI5 says terrorists have tried using AI-enabled drones, alongside a sharply larger foreign-state workload.
  2. The targets range from places of worship to factories and military sites. How far has terrorist use of AI gone, and what is MI5 changing to meet it?
  3. MI5 Director General Sir Ken McCallum delivered his annual assessment at Thames House on October 13. He described a service confronting Russian and Iranian operations while still investigating terrorism. China also remains among its principal state concerns.
  4. McCallum said MI5's state-threat caseload has grown fourfold over the past decade. That measures the investigations occupying the service. State-threat work now runs at roughly the same scale as counterterrorism, putting two demanding operational missions alongside each other.
  5. He said MI5 now commits more resources to countering state threats than during the Cold War. His comparison concerns the service's allocation of resources. He expressly avoided ranking today's overall national danger above every period since the Second World War.
  6. McCallum called Russia the leading aggressor. He described sabotage, cyber operations and attempted violence, alongside campaigns exploiting political divisions. He said Russian services are escalating these tactics while trying to stay below the threshold that would trigger NATO's collective defence.
  7. He cited a cyberattack on Polish energy infrastructure. In Germany, an attempt to destroy a cargo plane with an explosive-laden drone went wrong. In the United States, an assassination plot was thwarted. These examples show how far the campaign reaches.
  8. Almost one thousand expulsions internationally since Russia invaded Ukraine have severely reduced its traditional covert network, McCallum said. He described Moscow turning to paid criminals and inexperienced volunteers, including the GRU Volunteer Corps, linked to Russian military intelligence.
  9. That recruitment can bring foreign-state operations into ordinary workplaces and communities. He also described attempted election interference and online efforts to deepen divisions. He distinguished those attempts from actually achieving the electoral result Moscow wanted.
  10. Joshua Cammidge faces charges over alleged preparations to sabotage a drone factory in Swindon. Prosecutors allege he assisted a foreign intelligence service and had contact with someone linked to the GRU Volunteer Corps. He denies the alleged Russian-linked plan.
  11. He was charged in September under the National Security Act. That law came into force in 2023 and had been used for dozens of arrests in its first three years. His case is heading toward a trial next April.
  12. McCallum said Iranian ambitions have expanded toward harder targets, including military sites such as Fairford. Jewish communities, Iranian dissidents and Iranian media workers also face threats. The Manchester proceedings concern alleged targeting of a synagogue and the city's Jewish Museum.
  13. The count has been put at fifty and more than fifty. McCallum said more than fifty UK arrests in Iran-linked operations over twelve months. Each arrest represents a step in an investigation. The cases still have to be tested.
  14. Salam Ahmadyan and Rahman Salehi, both Iranian nationals, were arrested on September 20 and charged on October 2. They face accusations of preparing terrorist acts against Manchester's Jewish community. Both have been remanded in custody while the proceedings continue.
  15. Prosecutors allege the planning involved a homemade explosive device and reconnaissance of Heaton Park Synagogue and Manchester Jewish Museum. They also allege contact with an overseas third party assessed as likely to be in Iran. Those allegations await trial.
  16. Police found petrol or accelerant in vans linked to the initial Fairford arrests. They found no explosives. The seven men arrested were all in their twenties. Their bail status remained unchanged through October 17 as the investigation continued.
  17. The seventh suspect, a 22-year-old British national, was arrested in Westminster on October 6 on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. Police announced his release on strict bail conditions on October 8.
  18. Prime Minister Andy Burnham told Parliament on October 12 that the suspected Fairford plot was highly likely coordinated in Iran. He said it was almost certainly directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard. That remains the government's intelligence assessment.
  19. The Home Secretary also referred to a known individual based in Iran. McCallum said Fairford was one of several examples in Britain and elsewhere. He withheld operational details because the investigation was live.
  20. Iran rejected involvement. Ambassador Seyed Ali Mousavi demanded evidence supporting Britain's accusation. The Foreign Ministry summoned the British ambassador and warned that bilateral relations could be reconsidered. It also said Iran was willing to cooperate with the investigation.
  21. Tehran accused Britain of diverting attention from its own role in operations against Iran. The criminal investigation continues while the two governments maintain opposing positions on responsibility.
  22. MI5 says it has caught terrorists trying to use AI to improve surveillance and attack methods, including through AI-enabled drones. McCallum described attempts to exploit the technology. He also said AI is already intensifying the contest between cyber attackers and defenders.
  23. AI can produce propaganda and radicalising material tailored to an individual, he warned. Those capabilities can change how extremists persuade people, scout potential targets and prepare violence. His greatest concern about deliberate misuse reaches further.
  24. McCallum warned that AI could help people with limited expertise develop or improve biological weapons if safeguards fail. He explicitly said that scenario hasn't happened. MI5 is preparing for a possible capability that could make future attacks easier.
  25. McCallum also raised a different future concern: whether advanced AI systems will reliably follow human intentions. Researchers call that the alignment problem. He said the prospect of facing a system capable of out-thinking humans deserves serious attention, including inside MI5.
  26. The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre raised the UK threat level to severe on April 30. The change was announced on May 1, and it remained severe when McCallum spoke. Severe means an attack is highly likely.
  27. The previous level, substantial, had been in place since February 2022. McCallum said extreme right-wing terrorism contributed significantly to the increase. He described more cases where anti-immigration and anti-Muslim grievances tipped into terrorist intent, including threats toward mosques and asylum venues.
  28. MI5 investigated a radicalised extreme-right 13-year-old in Britain a few months before the speech. McCallum said information from that investigation helped an international partner prevent a lethal attack. He didn't identify the child or the country involved.
  29. He described these cases as increasingly young and heavily shaped online. Al Qaeda and Islamic State also continue to direct and inspire attacks. The address included completed prosecutions showing threats against both Jewish and Muslim communities.
  30. Three Islamist extremists were convicted in February of planning an automatic-weapons mass shooting against Manchester's Jewish community. Separately, a 16-year-old from Inverclyde received a ten-year sentence for attempting an attack on his local Islamic centre.
  31. The February convictions concern an earlier case, separate from Ahmadyan and Salehi's pending proceedings. MI5's response now includes a new structure intended to keep its understanding of technology abreast of the threats.
  32. MI5 launched its AI Threat Assessment Centre during 2026. Housed inside the service, it brings together expertise from the AI Security Institute, National Crime Agency and National Cyber Security Centre. Its assessments aim to distinguish exaggerated claims from real capabilities.
  33. MI5, MI6, GCHQ and the AI Security Institute are also working together on AI security risks. Alongside that work, MI5 has made protection and national resilience, called PROTECT, its third core mission, beside counterterrorism and countering state threats.
  34. Interconnected financial systems, energy grids, supply chains and manufacturing bases can be disrupted or coerced. McCallum called for government, industry, universities and the public to help strengthen them. Protective agencies provide advice on sabotage, drones and cyber risks.
  35. That work includes the National Protective Security Authority and National Cyber Security Centre. McCallum also called for stronger community resilience against attempts to divide people, sometimes helped by polarising algorithms. The technological part includes assessing human misuse of AI and future risks from AI systems themselves.
  36. MI5 has already encountered attempted AI misuse and launched a centre to assess changing capabilities. Its biological-weapons concern remains prospective. In the active criminal cases, the next legal steps will test specific allegations about people and places.
  37. Ahmadyan and Salehi are due at the Old Bailey on October 23. Cammidge has a pretrial hearing in January. His three-week trial over the alleged Swindon sabotage plan is scheduled to begin at Winchester Crown Court on April 19, 2027.

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