跳到内容
现在

灾害 · 阿拉斯加东南部海况

阿拉斯加东南部风暴预报：15小时警报之外仍有危险

星期日的预报称，周一埃奇库姆角和斯宾塞角外海阵风将达70节。风暴前后都有大风，这意味着危险时段比风暴警报本身持续得更久。

文字 阅读需 5 分钟 · 24 个来源

HeyDex

原语言视频

译自英文原文。

阿拉斯加东南部近海船只将面临多久威胁船舶安全的天气——而不只是一个风暴警报标签？美国国家气象局周日下午的预报给出了一个令人不安的答案：周一持续15小时的近海风暴时段夹在两场大风之间，预计危险大风和巨浪将持续到次日夜间。⁠24

美国国家气象局朱诺分局于2026年11月8日星期日下午3:27发布的警报预报称，在埃奇库姆角与斯宾塞角之间、离岸15–80海里范围内，将有东南风，风速40–60节，阵风最高70节，浪高31–36英尺。风暴时段为11月9日星期一凌晨3点至下午6点。本文所有当地时间均为阿拉斯加标准时间。这些是预报状况，并非实测浪高，也不是已经发生损失的报告。⁠24

对于正在决定是否离港、继续航行或加固船只的船员来说，这一区别很重要。风暴警报类别开始或结束，都不代表危险水域与安全水域的分界。警报说明了船只倾覆、受损以及能见度下降的威胁，并给出了直接的防护建议。⁠24

海员应留在港内、改变航向和/或加固船只，以应对恶劣天气。

美国国家气象局朱诺分局 24

近海危险天气将持续到周一之后

近海区域属于海区PKZ663，与相邻的埃奇库姆角—斯宾塞角近岸海区不同；后者范围延伸至离岸15海里。两处海区的预报和警报时间安排各不相同；近海数据并非适用于每个海湾或沿海地点的笼统预报。⁠24

星期日发布的近海警报列出的是一连串天气变化，而非一次短暂的恶劣天气。小型船只警报先于第一段大风，随后是风暴警报，紧接着又开始一段大风。⁠24

星期日警报中的近海时间安排 — 阿拉斯加标准时间

  1. 11月8日星期日，至晚上9点

    小型船只警报，浪高8–9英尺。

    24
  2. 星期日晚上9点至周一凌晨3点

    大风警报：东南风风速35–45节，阵风达65节，浪高15–20英尺。

    24
  3. 11月9日星期一，凌晨3点至下午6点

    风暴警报：东南风风速40–60节，阵风达70节，浪高31–36英尺。

    24
  4. 周一下午6点至周二上午6点

    随后的大风时段：东南风风速35–45节，阵风达60节，浪高29–34英尺。

    24

另一份沿海海域预报于星期日下午3:17发布，比警报早10分钟；它也描述了近海风浪的迅速增强。预报称，周日晚些时候浪高将从10英尺升至28英尺，西风将转为东南风，并在晚些时候增强至50节。天气转坏时还伴有降雨。周一预报东南风风速55节，阵风达70节，上午有雨，随后转为阵雨，下午有小概率出现雷暴。⁠3

这份沿海预报给出的周一近海浪高为38英尺，而下午3:27发布的警报为31–36英尺。两份产品涵盖同一近海区域，沿海预报的数值比警报的上限高2英尺。星期日提供的预报产品没有解释这种差异。不应将其平滑处理成一个数字，也不应说浪高在两次预报之间上升了。两个数据都是预报。⁠3⁠24

预报还说明了这些浪高数据的含义：风浪与涌浪合成后，最高三分之一波浪的平均高度。它们既不是每个浪的高度，也不是所述的单个浪的最大高度。风力预报描述预计的主要风速和风向，阵风则另行列出。⁠3

近岸海域的时间安排不同

在离岸较近的PKZ643海区，星期日下午3:27发布的警报将风暴状况定为周一上午9点至下午6点——持续9小时，比近海风暴警报开始晚6小时。预报称，东南风风速35–55节，阵风达65节，浪高26–31英尺。⁠24

这一较晚的时间安排取代了下午3:17发布的较早近岸警报；后者将周一风暴时段定为凌晨5点至下午5点。这是同一气象机构先后发布的产品，并非独立预报员给出的相互矛盾说法。实际上的区别在于，下午3:27警报中的开始和结束时间都较晚。⁠2⁠24

开始时间较晚，并不意味着周一早晨风平浪静。在近岸风暴时段开始前，凌晨3点至上午9点发布大风警报，预报东风风速35–45节，阵风达65节，浪高20–25英尺。此前的小型船只警报则预报东南风风速20–30节，阵风达40节，浪高8–13英尺。⁠24

下午3:17发布的另一份沿海预报称，周一近岸风力为东南风45节，阵风65节，并伴有降雨，浪高32英尺。尽管预报标题涵盖更广泛的阿拉斯加东南部，这些数据具体适用于离岸15海里以内的海区。与近海情况一样，海浪预报与较晚发布的警报不同：沿海预报为32英尺，警报中的风暴时段范围则为26–31英尺。⁠3⁠24

周一下午6点以后，星期日的近岸警报安排了另一段大风时段，持续至午夜，预报东南风风速30–40节，阵风达55节，浪高24–29英尺。随后，小型船只警报将持续至周二上午6点，预报浪高仍为18–23英尺。警报级别降低，并不意味着浪高就会变小。⁠24

有效期字段不代表警报解除

近海警报还有另一处时间陷阱。其消息有效期字段显示周日晚上11:30到期——早于所列风暴开始时间，即周一凌晨3点。但警报中的文字时间安排与编码的危险天气时段一致，都表明风暴时段将于周一下午6点结束。不能把提前到期的字段理解为天气威胁在开始前就已结束。⁠1⁠24

较早发布的近岸警报也有类似情况：消息有效期字段早于其所述危险天气时段的结束时间。规划航程时，重要的是适用海区明确列出的危险天气时间安排，同时也要留意后续预报可能对其作出修订。⁠2

星期日的沿海预报进一步显示，这次天气事件的影响将持续较长时间：周一夜间，近海浪高从36英尺降至24英尺，周二仍有19英尺，东南风风速30节，阵风达45节。近岸海域周二的浪高预报仍为18英尺。这些是有所好转的预报，并非风平浪静。⁠3

星期日发布的预报产品并未证实有船只遇险或港口关闭。它们所显示的预报状况严重到足以促使船员在遭遇恶劣天气前改变航程计划。之后仍需查看后续预报，了解时间安排和浪高是否修订；星期日警报已经明确揭示的实际教训是，等到风暴警报标签消失，并不等于等到危险过去。⁠24

来源9

在此处引用的来源中，wxd.app最先发布，比本报道播出早5天。 随后还有5家媒体发布。
  1. wxd.app
  2. Global Incident Tracker
  3. id-times.com
  4. timesofnews24x7.com
  5. National Weather Service
  6. Warning Vector
  7. HeyDay News

3家媒体未注明日期：NOAAgovonestop.comwmo.int

按媒体查看所有来源

来自 9 家媒体的 24 个来源· 引用最多的优先

播出原貌
  1. Forecast gusts of 70 knots threaten vessels off Southeast Alaska.
  2. Winds and seas could capsize or damage boats, and crews face decisions about leaving port or changing course. The offshore storm warning covers 15 hours on Monday, with gale warnings before and afterward.
  3. The question for crews is how long vessel-threatening conditions will continue.
  4. The offshore warning covers waters between Cape Edgecumbe and Cape Spencer, from 15 to 80 nautical miles out. The neighboring nearshore zone extends out to 15 nautical miles. Those two bands have different forecasts and storm-warning schedules.
  5. Offshore, southeast winds are forecast at 40 to 60 knots, with gusts to 70 and seas of 31 to 36 feet. The storm period runs from three in the morning to six in the evening Monday, November ninth. All times here are Alaska Standard Time.
  6. The offshore alert has an expiration field that falls Sunday night, before the storm begins. But its written schedule and coded hazard times agree on Monday's 15-hour storm period. That early message expiration doesn't mean the dangerous weather ends Sunday night.
  7. The offshore gale begins Sunday evening. A small craft advisory runs until nine, with seas of eight to nine feet. From nine until three Monday morning, southeast winds are forecast at 35 to 45 knots, gusting to 65, with seas of 15 to 20 feet.
  8. The separate offshore coastal forecast builds seas from 10 feet Sunday night to 28 feet late. West winds of 15 knots turn southeast at 35 during the evening, then increase to 50 late. Rain accompanies that deterioration before Monday's peak.
  9. Monday's coastal forecast puts offshore southeast winds at 55 knots, with gusts to 70. It calls for morning rain, then showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Its sea forecast is higher than the marine warning issued ten minutes later.
  10. The coastal forecast calls for 38-foot seas Monday. The marine warning gives 31 to 36 feet for its storm period. That's two feet above the warning's upper value, in separate forecasts for the same offshore zone. No explanation reconciles them.
  11. Both numbers describe expected conditions. They don't show waves already measured or an observed increase. The forecast defines seas as the average height of the highest one-third of combined wind waves and swell. Individual waves vary. The wind figures describe the predominant expected speed and direction, with gusts listed separately.
  12. Crews are being advised to stay in port, change course or secure their vessels before encountering severe conditions. The danger includes capsizing, vessel damage and reduced visibility. Those decisions need to account for the gales surrounding the storm period, too.
  13. The nearshore storm period starts six hours later than the offshore one in the updated warning. For waters out to 15 nautical miles, the later schedule runs from nine Monday morning to six that evening, a nine-hour window.
  14. The earlier nearshore alert put the storm between five in the morning and five in the afternoon Monday. Its message expiration falls before that endpoint, too. The later warning shifts the storm window to nine through six. These are different products from the same office.
  15. The nearshore coastal forecast specifically calls for southeast winds of 45 knots Monday, gusts to 65, seas of 32 feet and rain. The later warning gives southeast winds of 35 to 55 knots, gusts to 65, and seas of 26 to 31 feet during its storm period.
  16. Nearshore seas reach 20 to 25 feet in the gale forecast from three to nine Monday morning. East winds run 35 to 45 knots, gusting to 65. Before that, a small craft advisory carries southeast winds of 20 to 30 knots, gusts to 40, and eight-to-13-foot seas.
  17. The coastal forecast also tracks a sharp nearshore buildup Sunday night. Southwest winds of 10 knots become southeast at 25 in the evening, then east at 40 late, with gusts to 55. Seas build from nine to 18 feet, with rain arriving late.
  18. Nearshore seas remain at 18 feet in Tuesday's coastal forecast, with southerly swell and rain. Southeast winds are forecast at 25 knots, gusting to 40. That follows Monday night, when southeast winds ease from 40 to 25 knots and seas subside from 31 to 22 feet.
  19. The nearshore warning keeps another gale in place from six Monday evening to midnight. Southeast winds of 30 to 40 knots can gust to 55, with seas of 24 to 29 feet. A small craft advisory then continues until six Tuesday morning.
  20. That final nearshore advisory still forecasts seas of 18 to 23 feet. East winds of 20 to 30 knots can gust to 40. The step down in warning category leaves crews facing large seas into Tuesday morning.
  21. The offshore coastal forecast also keeps substantial winds and seas after Monday's peak. Monday night, southeast winds diminish from 45 to 35 knots, while seas fall from 36 to 24 feet, with rain. Tuesday still brings southeast winds of 30 knots, gusts to 45, and 19-foot seas.
  22. Subsequent forecasts still need to reconcile the differing sea heights and nearshore schedules. But the offshore warning already lays out dangerous conditions through the following night. The 15-hour storm window sits between two gale periods, rather than marking the full stretch of hazardous weather.
  23. The offshore storm warning ends at six Monday evening, but a gale warning continues until six Tuesday morning. Southeast winds of 35 to 45 knots can still gust to 60, with seas of 29 to 34 feet.

译文更新于

近期播出