Disasters · Arizona hail warnings

Hail threat tracked north past Mormon Lake; damage remains unconfirmed

October 22 warnings followed a fast-moving hail threat from Hanging Garden to north of Mormon Lake. The track is documented; injuries and damage remain unconfirmed.

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  1. Update 1Hail threat tracked north past Mormon Lake; damage remains unconfirmedYou are here

The hail threat that reached Mormon Lake on October 22, 2026, was the northward continuation of a fast-moving Arizona storm already tracked through warnings near Hanging Garden and Stoneman Lake. By 11:44 a.m. Mountain Standard Time, the National Weather Service in Flagstaff had issued a new severe-thunderstorm warning for Coconino County, identifying half-dollar-size hail and the prospect of vehicle damage. 5 3 1

The warning sequence establishes where forecasters tracked the danger, but not what damage it left behind. No confirmed injuries, vehicle-damage total, measured local hail report or storm-specific road closure is established for this track. The warning’s statement that vehicle damage was expected was a reason to take shelter—not a report that damage had occurred. 1 7 17

These were October 22 warning periods, not alerts still in force on October 23. The Mormon Lake warning carried a scheduled expiration of 12:15 p.m. MST, and an 11:58 a.m. follow-up retained that deadline rather than extending it. 6 8

A warning sequence moving north

The earlier warning covered parts of Coconino, Gila and Yavapai counties. At 11:15 a.m., radar placed the storm over Hanging Garden, about 17 miles east of Camp Verde, moving north at 50 mph. Its half-dollar-size hail threat gave residents and motorists little reason to linger outdoors: the instruction was to seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from windows. 5

October 22 storm track — all times MST

  1. October 22, 11:15 a.m.

    Radar placed the storm over Hanging Garden, 17 miles east of Camp Verde, moving north at 50 mph. The warning identified half-dollar-size hail and a scheduled 11:45 a.m. expiration.

    5
  2. October 22, 11:21 a.m.

    The storm was five miles north of Hanging Garden, or 18 miles east of Camp Verde. The movement, hail threat and scheduled expiration were unchanged.

    4
  3. October 22, 11:30 a.m.

    The storm was over Stoneman Lake, 18 miles southeast of Sedona, moving north at 50 mph. The warning now identified quarter-size hail.

    3
  4. October 22, 11:36 a.m.

    Another update placed the storm over Stoneman Lake, described as 17 miles east of Sedona, retaining quarter-size hail, 50 mph movement and an 11:45 a.m. scheduled end.

    2
  5. October 22, 11:44 a.m.

    A new warning covered Coconino County, with the storm near Mormon Lake, 18 miles east of Sedona. Half-dollar-size hail was identified; the scheduled expiration was 12:15 p.m.

    16
  6. October 22, 11:58 a.m.

    The storm was nine miles north of Mormon Lake, or 15 miles southeast of Flagstaff, moving north at 45 mph with a half-dollar-size hail threat. The 12:15 p.m. deadline remained.

    8

The threatened-location list included Munds Park, Mormon Lake, Lakeview, Stoneman Lake, Happy Jack and T-Bar Ranch, along with portions of Interstate 17 and State Route 260. Exact highway milepost limits are not established here. Those listings identified places where people were being warned to shelter; they do not establish that each community or road section was struck by damaging hail. 4

The same distinction applies to Camp Verde and Sedona. Their names helped locate the storm through distances and directions, rather than demonstrating that either town center was hit. The two Stoneman Lake descriptions—18 miles southeast of Sedona at 11:30 and 17 miles east at 11:36—belong to their respective updates, not to one interchangeable location measurement. 5 3 2

What the warnings cannot establish

The hail descriptions changed from half-dollar size near Hanging Garden to quarter size near Stoneman Lake, then back to half-dollar size near Mormon Lake. Those were radar-indicated warning estimates, not measurements of hailstones collected along the route. They cannot, on their own, demonstrate that ground-level impacts weakened and then intensified in precisely that pattern. 5 3 1

Two details in the available records remain unresolved. The NWS warning account gives the initial Mormon Lake movement as north at 45 mph, while StormStation247’s record for the October 22 warning lists 43 mph. The independently available initial-warning reproduction cuts off before completing the motion sentence. The later, 11:58 a.m. NWS-attributed update reproduced by Forth explicitly states 45 mph, so that speed is clear for the follow-up even though the initial figure cannot be settled from the accessible text. 1 7 6 8

There is also a difference between a scheduled expiration and a verified cancellation. Weather Alert Watch lists an end time equivalent to 12:10 p.m. MST, five minutes before the 12:15 p.m. deadline stated in the warning and retained in Forth’s reproduction of the follow-up. No confirmed event-specific cancellation record establishes an early end. The supported account is therefore a scheduled 12:15 p.m. expiration, with the precise cancellation status unresolved—not a documented extension or a proven early cancellation. 9 6 8

A separate tornado watch lasted beyond the lunchtime thunderstorm-warning window. The warnings’ reference to “8 p.m. MST Thursday” meant Thursday, October 22, 2026, as clarified by contemporaneous KTAR reporting. A watch signaled conditions favorable for tornadoes; it did not confirm that this storm produced one. 1 26

For people along the warned route, the practical message was consistent despite the changing hail estimates: get inside a well-built structure and stay away from windows. The record follows that danger from Hanging Garden through Stoneman Lake to north of Mormon Lake. What remains missing is the local evidence needed to turn a map of threatened places into an account of actual losses. An unconfirmed toll is not the same as no harm done. 4 2 8

As aired 17 lines
  1. A northbound thunderstorm threatened Mormon Lake with half-dollar-size hail.
  2. The hail could damage vehicles, and people in the warning area were told to get inside, away from windows. The threat moved through parts of three counties.
  3. How far did the threat travel, and what damage did it leave behind?
  4. The threat reached Mormon Lake on October twenty-second, twenty twenty-six. A new warning covered Coconino County, with the storm near the lake, eighteen miles east of Sedona. These warning periods belonged to that day's storm.
  5. The Mormon Lake warning began at eleven forty-four in the morning, Mountain Standard Time. Its scheduled expiration was twelve fifteen that afternoon. The warning identified large hail as the hazard and told people to shelter inside a well-built structure.
  6. Half-dollar-size hail was the warning's estimate from radar. Forecasters expected damage to vehicles. That gave residents and motorists a reason to get indoors, but the estimate couldn't tell them how much damage the storm would actually cause.
  7. Farther south, the storm had been moving north at fifty miles an hour. At eleven fifteen, radar placed it over Hanging Garden, seventeen miles east of Camp Verde. The warning covered parts of Coconino, Gila and Yavapai counties, with an eleven forty-five scheduled end.
  8. The hail estimate shifted from half-dollar size near Hanging Garden to quarter size near Stoneman Lake. Near Mormon Lake, it returned to half-dollar size. Those changing radar estimates tracked the threat; they weren't measurements of hailstones collected on the ground.
  9. At eleven twenty-one, the storm was five miles north of Hanging Garden, eighteen miles east of Camp Verde. Its northward speed remained fifty miles an hour. The half-dollar-size hail threat and eleven forty-five scheduled expiration also stayed in place.
  10. At eleven thirty, radar placed the storm over Stoneman Lake, eighteen miles southeast of Sedona. Six minutes later, it was again over Stoneman Lake, described as seventeen miles east of Sedona. Both updates kept the fifty-mile-an-hour movement, quarter-size hail threat and eleven forty-five scheduled end.
  11. By eleven fifty-eight, the storm was nine miles north of Mormon Lake, fifteen miles southeast of Flagstaff. It was moving north at forty-five miles an hour, with a half-dollar-size hail threat. The warning still carried the twelve fifteen scheduled expiration.
  12. The initial Mormon Lake speed estimates differed by two miles an hour. The later update put the speed at forty-five. Twelve fifteen remained the scheduled warning end; whether forecasters canceled it five minutes early isn't clear. The follow-up kept that deadline without extending it.
  13. The threatened-location list included Munds Park, Mormon Lake, Lakeview, Stoneman Lake, Happy Jack and T-Bar Ranch. It also included portions of Interstate seventeen and State Route two-sixty. These were places where people were being warned to take shelter.
  14. The Stoneman Lake warnings covered parts of Coconino and Yavapai counties. The later Mormon Lake warning focused on Coconino County. Camp Verde and Sedona helped locate the storm through distances and directions from those towns.
  15. People in the affected area were told to shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from windows. For residents and motorists, the immediate concern was exposure to hail capable of damaging vehicles. The instruction was to get indoors.
  16. A separate tornado watch covered part of north-central Arizona until eight that evening. The Thursday mentioned in the warnings was October twenty-second. That watch extended beyond the thunderstorm warning's scheduled lunchtime expiration.
  17. A tornado watch meant conditions favored tornadoes; it didn't confirm that this storm produced one. The warnings followed a fast-moving hail threat north. The actual toll on people, vehicles and roads along that track remains unconfirmed.

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