Tasmania's Secret AI Load: 500 MW, No Names, No Water

Tasmania says it wants to be transparent about its AI boom, and then tables a document that names no names. Six proposed data centres appear only as numbers — proponents three to eight — with most sites undisclosed, owners undisclosed, and every water figure left blank. ^{12 15} What is disclosed is the load: two of the ghost projects could each draw up to 300 megawatts on an island grid that peaked at 1,770 megawatts last year. ^{12 68} That is the contradiction at the heart of this story — a public grid asked to carry a private surge it is not allowed to see.

The paper was tabled on September 9 in response to a Greens transparency motion that passed the lower house on September 2. ^{12 14} It counts ten AI data centres in the pipeline with up to roughly 1,150 megawatts of potential demand. ^{12 15} That figure is pipeline interest, not committed or connected load, a distinction the government itself stresses. ¹² After three named Firmus Technologies projects and a small Viridis project at Burnie comes the confidential tail: six early-stage proposals the government would not attribute to one company or several. ^{12 15} Firmus has confirmed it is not behind the six. ¹²

The six break down unevenly, and the staging matters. One feasibility-stage project is on hold, needing more than 1 megawatt, with no disclosed location. ¹² One feasibility-stage project has a preferred site in the northwest and could use up to 300 megawatts. ¹² One concept-stage project has no identified site and could also use up to 300 megawatts. ¹² Three more concept-stage projects have no sites and each require 5 to 50 megawatts. ¹² Combined, the range is roughly 505 to 705 megawatts, reported as at least 500 megawatts. ¹² Two are at feasibility stage, meaning a site has been selected, while four remain concepts. ¹² One concrete lead slipped out: a 50-megawatt concept-stage project has expressed interest in the closed Bell Bay manganese smelter in northern Tasmania. ¹²

Water is where the document is thinnest. For all six confidential proposals, water use is listed as “not defined.” ^{12 15} That stands in sharp contrast to the named projects sitting beside them in the same table: Firmus’s Bell Bay site was given an annual figure of 8,700 kilolitres and its Wesley Vale site 448 kilolitres. ¹² The omission is not explained project by project. The government said detail was withheld on commercial sensitivity grounds, or because information was “not yet available, not sufficiently settled, not capable of reliable estimation or has been provided to the Office of the Coordinator-General in confidence.” ^{12 15} That office shepherded proponents, helped some identify sites and made introductions to energy and utility providers. ¹²

Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said the government had been working behind closed doors with developers for months, if not years. ¹³ Premier Jeremy Rockliff rejected what he called a scare campaign, said Tasmanians reasonably want more information, and argued data centres are the kind of investment the state should attract. ¹² Energy Minister Nick Duigan restated the government rule that new load must bring new generation. ¹² On September 7 the government released non-binding draft “Expectations for Data Centres and AI Infrastructure,” with Minister for Business, Industry and Resources Felix Ellis saying no project receives automatic approval or special treatment. ^{65 66} The Greens branded the framework “an absolute joke,” and Independent MP Helen Burnet joined calls for a moratorium. ^{67 56}

The stakes are physical, not theoretical. A single 300-megawatt facility would be roughly 17 percent of the state’s system peak, about the scale of the Bell Bay aluminium smelter often cited around 335 megawatts. ^{12 68} Tasmania’s firm capacity is constrained. Hydro Tasmania holds about 2,290 megawatts across 30 stations but output depends on inflows and storages, wind adds roughly 560 to 570 megawatts of variable power, the Tamar Valley gas plant of about 372 megawatts is a dry-year backup, and Basslink can import around 478 megawatts. ^{76 68} Through 2025, drought forced the state to fire up its biggest gas plant for the first time in five years. ⁷³ New large load without matching new renewable generation pushes directly at prices and at power security — the two things the draft framework says it aims to protect. ^{65 66}

The pressure for disclosure came from petition politics. Greens MP Cecily Rosol tabled a petition on September 2 calling for a moratorium on AI data centres until community and environmental safeguards are in place. ^{53 38} The Greens say it carried 10,035 signatures, while the parliament’s own e-petitions page records 7,204, filed by Launceston principal petitioner Jamie Andrew Melvin between June 22 and August 10. ^{53 54} The gap between the two counts is itself unresolved, but either total makes it one of the largest e-petitions in Tasmanian parliamentary history. ^{53 39}

The only near-term decision is not about the six at all. Hydro Tasmania is to decide by the end of the year on Firmus Technologies’ separate request for 450 megawatts across its three proposed sites. ²² Those are St Leonards under construction, a 288-megawatt Bell Bay project approved on August 25 by a 6-1 George Town council vote, and a mooted 52-megawatt Wesley Vale project filed September 2. ^{47 48 22} The six confidential projects are earlier and looser; several have not yet engaged energy generators or TasNetworks, so their timing and even their fate are unknown. ¹²