A ban on a rounding error that ruins real wineries

What does an industry that exports almost nothing to the United States actually lose when Washington bans its wine at the border? That is the question hanging over British Columbia after September 8, when President Donald Trump moved American policy on Canadian alcohol from a tax to an exclusion. ²⁸

The September 8 proclamation, issued under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, excludes a long list of Canadian alcoholic beverages from U.S. importation effective 12:01 a.m. Eastern on September 29, 2026. ²⁸ The list covers the main commercial wine categories, including sparkling and still grape wines in various container sizes, plus vermouth, cider and other fermented beverages, alongside packaged beer and a wide range of spirits. ² For goods in those categories, the order converts the existing 50 percent Section 338 duty into an outright exclusion, meaning shipments still in transit at the deadline will be turned away rather than taxed. ²⁸ Only stock already entered for consumption before that time stays under the old duty. ²

The fight ran in three phases on the beverage front. ⁹¹⁰ On July 20, Proclamation 11046 imposed an additional 50 percent ad valorem Section 338 duty on listed Canadian products including wine, beer, cider and spirits, described as a response to provincial bans on American liquor. ⁴⁹ The duty was set for August 19, then suspended and shifted to August 22 after talks, and took hold once negotiations fell apart in late August. ⁶¹⁰ Canada answered on September 8 with its own counter-tariffs, among them an extra Saskatchewan levy on U.S. alcohol, which the White House cited in escalating to exclusion the same day. ⁸³⁴

That last phrase belongs to Jeff Guignard, president and CEO of Wine Growers British Columbia, speaking on CBC News Hanomansing Tonight on September 9. ¹ He put B.C. wine exports to the United States at only about 1 million to 1.5 million dollars a year, a rounding error against an industry whose wine and grape activity totaled 3.75 billion dollars in 2019 and supported an estimated 14,272 full-time equivalent jobs. ¹¹² Government figures have put U.S.-bound exports even lower, but the direction is the same: most B.C. wine is sold in Canada, not across the border. ¹¹⁵ Guignard argued the small aggregate hides the real damage, because the ban breaks trust and shuts down importer and restaurant relationships built up over years, relationships a producer cannot simply rebuild on a pivot. ¹

The exposure is uneven, and that unevenness is the story. ¹ Guignard pointed to one member winery that conducts roughly 30 percent of its business in the United States. ¹ That winery is Lightning Rock in Summerland, owned by Ron Kubek. ¹ Kubek had been ramping U.S. sales from about 8 percent of production toward much more, with a plan to reach 30 percent of his business in the United States, and said that plan died under the tariffs. ¹ He sent one last 50-case shipment before the duty date and said he did not expect to send another soon. ¹ For a producer like that, the shift from tariff to ban does not change the direction, it closes the door. ²¹

In British Columbia, the immediate response is already visible on shelves. ¹ The Liquor Distribution Branch has removed U.S. products, part of the provincial measures Washington cited as the trigger for escalation. ¹⁸ Guignard urged the province to double down on shelf space for B.C. wine, beer, spirits and cider, and called on consumers to buy B.C. ¹ B.C. has 277 licensed grape-wine wineries as of June 2026, of which 201 are members of Wine Growers BC, so the call to buy local is aimed at a crowded home field. ¹³

The longer answer, in his account, is at home rather than across the border. ¹ Canada must finish removing interprovincial trade barriers, with winery-to-consumer movement now nearly resolved but winery-to-business direct sales still blocked by fees and differing provincial rules. ¹ Nine premiers signed a landmark operating agreement on July 21, 2026 that allows wineries, distilleries and breweries to sell directly to consumers across provincial lines, while Quebec declined to join. ²³³⁰ Yet British Columbia committed to having its full direct-to-consumer system for all alcohol categories in place only in February 2027. ²⁸ Eight jurisdictions began implementing at once, but B.C. already allows direct sales of Canadian wine and the 2027 date is for expanding to beer, spirits and reciprocal shipping. ²⁸

In Ottawa, the response so far has been about the broader pivot rather than this specific ban. ⁵²³⁷ Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada has everything it needs to pivot and prosper, that the pivot will come at a cost, and that there is always a cost to action but it does not come close to the cost of standing still, framing the strategy as ensuring no country can hold Canada hostage. ⁵²³⁷ Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc called the American measures unjustified, said he would work to protect Canadian workers, families and businesses, and said he had reached out to his U.S. counterpart to work in good faith. ⁵²³⁷ But no new negotiations have been scheduled since talks collapsed in late August, and there is no announced federal countermeasure tied specifically to the September 8 ban beyond the tariffs and provincial restrictions already in force. ³⁷⁵² The ban lands September 29. The fuller domestic market will not arrive until February 2027. Those two dates frame the predicament. ²²⁸