اقتصاد · Fed Chair WarshFed Chair Scraps Forward Guidance, Hints at Rate Hikeمکتوب ۱۶ شهریور ۱۴۰۵ ساعت ۲۱:۲۲ (UTC)تماشامتن پیادهشده0:00The Fed chair just declared its signature communication tool obsolete.0:03It's a break with decades of practice and it comes with inflation stuck above target0:08for 65 straight months.0:09Will the Fed actually raise rates at its September meeting, or is this just a0:13rhetorical pivot?0:14In his first Jackson Hole keynote, Warsh said the practice has overstayed its0:18welcome and should be limited in normal times.0:20He also said forward guidance in 2021 might have slowed the policy response to high0:25inflation, and he laid the blame for the inflation streak squarely on the central0:29bank.0:35Warsh warned of a hall of mirrors problem, where markets and the Fed depend on each0:39other's signals, leaving both blindsided by new developments.0:43Warsh said this feedback loop could leave the Fed blinded and more prone to errors.0:49He also argued the most serious harm from policy errors would fall on those without0:53financial assets, not market participants.0:56Core inflation has now run above the Fed's 2% target for 65 consecutive months.1:01More than five years.1:02After the speech, markets moved the odds of a quarter-point hike at the September1:05meeting to 55 to 60%, up from 35 to 40%.1:09The speech puts Worsch in direct collision with the White House, which has been1:13demanding rate cuts.1:14President Trump picked Worsch after a public push for cuts, but Warsh's own1:18diagnosis now points to higher rates.1:20The money backdrop sharpens the tension.1:23M2 money supply hit a record $23.2 trillion in July, up 5.4% from a1:29year ago, and the prime rate sits at 6.75%, keeping borrowing expensive.1:33Long-term Treasury yields are elevated too.1:36The August 12 10-year auction stopped at 4.683%,1:40the highest at a 10-year sale since 2007, and the 30-year has traded near 19-year1:46highs.1:46At the July meeting, the committee voted 9-3 to hold, with three dissenters favoring1:50a quarter-point hike.1:51Some facts are confirmed, others are market inferences, and the biggest unknown is1:57whether this communication shift is permanent.2:05Analysts warned that if the Fed doesn't hike in September, credibility will take2:09another bashing.2:10The tool was born in crisis, used heavily in 2021, and now the chair says it's time2:15to limit it.2:16Will the September meeting deliver a hike, a hold, or something in between?2:20And is this the beginning of a quieter Fed or just a new way of keeping markets2:23guessing?مقاله را بخوانیدخط زمانی داستانHeyDexویدیوی کوتاه ↗
