درگیری · Khamenei's death · آرشیوIran Regime Splits After Khamenei's Death: Pro-Talks Faction Battles Hardliners, New Leader Hidesمکتوب ۱۶ شهریور ۱۴۰۵ ساعت ۲۱:۲۲ (UTC)تماشامتن پیادهشده0:00While Russia's war economy is being0:02dismantled from the air,0:03>> [music]0:04>> another geopolitical power shift is0:06underway nearly 1,500 miles south.0:09>> [music]0:09>> And this one is unfolding not on a0:11battlefield, but inside the corridors of0:13a regime now openly at war with itself.0:17Iran is [music] burying its supreme0:18leader of 35 years this week.0:21Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a0:23US-Israeli strike on February 28th,0:26>> [music]0:26>> along with roughly 50 other top0:28officials.0:29A six-day state funeral has drawn tens0:32of thousands [music] into the streets of0:34Tehran.0:35The Islamic Republic is now split into0:37two camps, and the fight between them0:39will determine whether Iran moves toward0:41engagement with the United States0:43[music] or doubles down on isolation. On0:46one side, Parliament speaker Mohammad0:48Bagher Ghalibaf, serving as Iran's chief0:50negotiator, [music] along with President0:52Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister0:55Abbas Aragchi.0:56They brokered an interim peace0:58memorandum with the United States,1:00[music] mediated by Pakistan and Qatar.1:04President Pezeshkian hailed the deal as1:07a historic breakthrough.1:10Ghalibaf was more measured, [music]1:12calling it the beginning of a difficult1:14and winding road.1:16And, in a crucial development, IRGC Quds1:19Force Commander Esmail Qaani, who had1:22not appeared publicly in months, came1:24forward to explicitly back Ghalibaf's1:26negotiating team.1:28On the other side, [music] hardline1:30mullahs, MPs, and elements of the1:33Revolutionary Guard who reject [music]1:35any deal outright. In Mashhad, Ayatollah1:39Ahmad Alamolhoda told worshipers [music]1:41the fight is not over, and called1:43America a corrupt, sinful dog. A1:46state-backed eulogist went even further,1:48[music] threatening President Pezeshkian1:50directly. "Mr. President, if the1:53conditions set by the Supreme Leader are1:55not realized, it will [music] be us, the1:57blade in your throat. Some hardliners2:00are now advocating what analysts2:01describe as a North [music] Korean2:03model, total isolation, no concessions2:06on the nuclear or missile programs, no2:08normalization with the United States.2:10Four red lines the hardliners say no one2:13may cross.2:15>> [music]2:17>> And at the center of this storm, Mojtaba2:20Khamenei, the son who succeeded his2:22father as supreme leader in March. He2:25has not made a single public appearance2:26since taking [music] power. His three2:28brothers appeared at the funeral in2:30Tehran. He did not. Only written2:32statements have been issued on his2:34behalf, [music] including one2:35acknowledging he held a different view2:37from the negotiating team. Analyst Sina2:39Azodi of George Washington University2:42estimates only 20 [music] to 20% of2:45Iran's 93 million people remain devoted2:48to the regime.2:49The other 80% have disconnected, [music]2:52a reality the regime cannot afford to2:54ignore.2:55Tehran, where the negotiators work, and2:58Mashhad, where hardline clerics rally3:01the faithful. Two cities, two visions3:04for Iran's future. [music] The IRGC3:06itself is fractured. While Khamenei and3:09the Quds [music] Force have signaled3:11pragmatic support for the deal,3:13IRGC-affiliated3:14media outlets like Tasnim and Fars3:17continue to run hardline editorials3:19warning that no one may cross the red3:21lines of the supreme leader.3:23And beneath the ideological fight is a3:25material one. Reuters reports the IRGC's3:29vast business empire stands to gain3:31enormously if US sanctions are lifted,3:34[music] giving some corners of the Guard3:36a direct financial stake in the deal's3:38survival.3:40Talks between Iran and the United States3:42[music] have been paused during the3:44mourning period. They are expected to3:47resume.3:47>> [music]3:48>> But whether they produce a permanent3:50settlement, or whether the hardliners,3:52the absent supreme leader, or those3:55calling for revenge win the day will3:57shape the Middle East for years [music]3:59to come.مقاله را بخوانیدخط زمانی داستانHeyDex
