بلایای طبیعی · Josephine offshoreJosephine Atlantic storm: Coastal flooding as 65 mph cyclone moves offshoreمکتوب ۱ آبان ۱۴۰۵ ساعت ۸:۰۰ (UTC)تماشامتن پیادهشده0:07Josephine has flooded parts of the mid-Atlantic coast while moving farther offshore.0:11Large swells reach much of the eastern U.S.0:13coastline and parts of Atlantic Canada, with life-threatening surf and rip currents0:17likely.0:18Whether the cyclone reached its forecast hurricane force winds is still unclear.0:22Josephine's center was about 235 miles east-southeast of Nantucket at 5 p.m.0:27Atlantic Standard Time on Thursday, October 22.0:29It was also about 335 miles southwest of Halifax.0:33Those distances describe Thursday evening's position as the storm headed northeast.0:37The cyclone was moving at 17 miles an hour with an estimated central pressure of 9880:42millibars.0:43Josephine had become post-tropical, described as a powerful extra-tropical low.0:48Its new classification came alongside a forecast for further strengthening0:52overnight.0:52Josephine's sustained winds were near 65 miles an hour, with higher gusts in that0:57Thursday evening analysis.0:58The forecast called for hurricane force winds Thursday night or early Friday.1:02As of early Friday, 65 miles an hour remains the latest sustained wind estimate.1:07The expected track carried Josephine away from the United States.1:10remaining south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.1:12But an offshore track still leaves beaches exposed to the storm's swells.1:16Gale-force gusts were also possible along parts of the northeastern U.S.1:20coast through Thursday evening.1:21That forecast covered the evening that has now passed.1:24Hatteras Island had coastal flooding and high seas.1:26Travel disruption was also reported along the outer banks.1:29Those impacts put a specific place on the broader mid-Atlantic flooding, which1:33ranged from minor to locally moderate along affected sections of the coast.1:37The earlier forecast expected coastal flooding to continue around high tide through1:41the rest of the week.1:42Large swells were already affecting much of the eastern seaboard and parts of1:45Atlantic Canada.1:46The dangerous surf and rip current forecast extended the coastal threat well beyond1:50the area of the cyclone's strongest winds.1:52The final public advisory listed no coastal watches or warnings, while also1:56describing ongoing flooding and dangerous swells.1:59Its warning status didn't give beaches an all-clear the Hurricane Center ended its2:03public advisories on Josephine that evening, with the cyclone still active offshore2:07and coastal hazards continuing.2:09Josephine was still subtropical at the earlier Thursday analysis, moving northeast2:13at 12 miles an hour.2:15Six hours later, it was post-tropical and moving at 17 miles an hour.2:19Its public sustained wind estimate stayed near 65 miles an hour and pressure stayed2:23at 988 millibars.2:25The earlier center was about 200 miles southeast of Nantucket, with its position2:29estimated accurate within 30 nautical miles.2:32The earlier forecast had placed the post-tropical transition at midnight, UTC.2:36Josephine had already changed classification by 9 p.m., UTC three hours before that2:41forecast point.2:42The earlier technical analysis gave sustained winds of 55 knots and gusts to 652:48knots.2:48Its midnight forecast projected 65 knots sustained, with gusts to 80 knots.2:54The stronger figures describe what forecasters expected Josephine to produce later.2:58The public 65 mile an hour sustained wind is the rounded presentation of that 553:03knot estimate.3:04The separate 65 knot figure describes gusts.3:07Keeping the units and the type of wind together prevents a gust measurement from3:10being mistaken for a stronger sustained wind estimate.3:13A later marine analysis placed Josephine over southern Georgia's bank at 9883:18millibars two hours after the final hurricane center analysis.3:22That moved the offshore picture forward, but the latest sustained wind estimate3:26still comes from the earlier analysis.3:28The next Canadian offshore forecast point was the Laurentian fan on Friday evening.3:32The earlier outlook listed average track errors of 125 nautical miles near day four3:37and 175 nautical miles near day five.3:40Average intensity error was 15 knots each day.3:43Those averages leave room for larger errors in the eventual track or strength.3:47That longer range outlook called for gradual weakening after the forecast3:51strengthening.3:52Two forecast points give the offshore storms expected next steps, while high tide3:56flooding and dangerous surf remain the immediate coastal stakes.3:59Josephine was forecast over the Laurentian fan at 988 millibars by 8 p.m.4:04Atlantic Daylight Time on Friday.4:06The earlier outlook called for the cyclone to dissipate by midday UTC on October4:1026th.4:11Both points remain forecasts of the storm's future position and survival.مقاله را بخوانیدخط زمانی 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