اقتصاد · Fed at Jackson HoleInflation Stuck at 3.3% as Fed Faces Jackson Hole Testمکتوب ۱۶ شهریور ۱۴۰۵ ساعت ۲۱:۲۲ (UTC)تماشامتن پیادهشده0:00Inflation is stuck at 3.3%, 65 straight months above target.0:04Headline prices held at 3.7% in July, and together they leave households paying more0:09for rent, groceries, and childcare while the central bank has almost no room to0:13promise rate relief.0:14What will the Fed chair actually signal about rates when he takes the stage in0:18Wyoming this week?0:18July did not move down.0:20Core PCE held at 3.3% year over year, headline at 3.7%, both unchanged0:26from June.0:27Core strips out food and energy to show underlying pressure.0:30Headline includes everything households buy.0:32Both staying elevated means the problem is not just groceries or gas.0:35That 65-month streak dates to early 2021, more than five years of continuous0:40overshoot, the longest stretch above target in recent history.0:44A dollar earned in 2021 buys significantly less in mid-2026, because that erosion0:49compounds month after month.0:51Longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored near 2%, but shorter-term0:56expectations have ticked higher after energy prices jumped.0:59And that split makes policy harder when families plan around the prices they see1:02now.1:03For homes and small businesses, the math is concrete.1:05Rent, childcare, insurance, and groceries have compounded through five years of1:09above-target inflation, even as incomes recently rose faster than prices in July and1:14consumer spending decelerated modestly.1:16The forum is the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, August 27-29 in Wyoming,1:21hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.1:24The official theme is financial innovation, implications for payments and policy,1:28payment systems, stablecoins, and digital technology, but markets are treating it as1:32a rate guidance test.1:33Chair Kevin Warsh, in office since May 22, delivers the keynote at 10 a.m.1:37on August 27th, and his remarks are the signal to watch before the September 16th1:42decision.1:43The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent since the beginning1:48of 2026.1:49At the July 28 to 29 meeting, the vote was 9 to 3 to hold, with Hammack, Kashkari,1:54and Logan dissenting for a quarter point increase.1:57The board held interest on reserve balances at 3.65% and the primary credit rate at2:023.75%.2:03Warsh gave limited forward guidance after that meeting, and without a clear path to2:072%, long-term Treasury yields have pushed toward their highest levels since 2007.2:12With Prime at 6.75%,2:14mortgages, auto loans, and credit card balances stay expensive.2:18Money is expanding again.2:19M two reached a record $23.2 twin $2 trillion in the August 25 H.6 release,2:26up 5.41% year over year, the fastest since June 2022, with a three-month annualized2:31pace of 8.36%.2:33That rise was driven by banks, not the central bank balance sheet, deposits up2:376.52%, bank credit up 6.14%, while the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet remains in2:43contraction with reserve management purchases continuing to keep reserves ample.2:46Competition for deposits has kept savings and certificate of deposit yields elevated2:51even as borrowing stays costly.2:52The July Monetary Policy Report describes inflation as elevated partly due to supply2:57shocks.2:58Energy disruptions tied to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict pushed petrol toward $4.103:03per gallon in August.3:05New tariff pressures followed a breakdown in U.S.-Canada negotiations.3:09Global industrial metals prices rose considerably on supply constraints and data3:13center demand, and that same technology build-out lifted corporate profits at the3:17second fastest pace on record in the second quarter.3:20One research estimate said the Iran conflict alone could add 0.6 points to fourth3:24quarter headline PCE through oil.3:27The disagreement is sharp.3:28Some officials argue war-driven price changes should not be met with higher rates3:32and favor fighting inflation through currency stability.3:35The three July dissenters argue policy is still not tight enough because rate cuts3:39cannot fix supply conditions, and letting money growth above 5% persist while the3:43balance sheet story points the other way risks embedding higher inflation.3:46If the Fed cannot signal easing at Jackson Hole, home, auto, and revolving payments3:51stay at levels straining budgets since 2022 and small businesses borrowing at the3:55prime benchmark see no relief.3:57If it signals cuts too early with headline at 3.7%, core at 3.3% and money growth4:02reaccelerating, purchasing power erodes longer, near-term expectations drift further4:07from target, and even tighter policy is needed later.4:10What remains unresolved is the guidance itself.4:12No transcript of a detailed rate path was available before the symposium and the4:16official agenda lists, no explicit interest rate outlook session.4:20Whether July readings are revised, whether energy, tariff, and money pressures4:24persist into fall, and whether September 16th brings a hold, a hike, or a first step4:28toward easing will determine whether the longest post-pandemic overshoot finally4:32bends toward 2% or extends into its sixth year.مقاله را بخوانیدخط زمانی داستانHeyDexویدیوی کوتاه ↗
