اقتصاد · 50% Tariffs Hit Canada50% Tariffs Hit Canada After 3-Day Talks Collapse — Dollar-for-Dollar Retaliation Loomsمکتوب ۱۶ شهریور ۱۴۰۵ ساعت ۲۱:۲۲ (UTC)تماشامتن پیادهشده0:0050% tariffs just hit billions in0:02Canadian imports. Three days of0:04face-to-face talks collapsed on August0:0622nd into a two-way escalation that0:08reaches factories, farms, and liquor0:10shelves on both sides of the border.0:11What exactly was just triggered? How0:13much trade does it really cover? And0:15what happens when the promised0:17retaliation arrives? The window [music]0:19was created at the last possible hour. A0:2150% duty under Section 338 of the0:24Smoot-Hawley Act, its first modern0:25[music] use, was set for 12:01 a.m. on0:27August 19th. Fewer than two hours before0:30midnight on the night of August 18th,0:32[music] that duty was paused for three0:33days at Canada's request until midnight0:35Friday, August 22nd. On that night,0:37President Donald Trump said a very0:39[music] good and very fair deal had been0:41reached subject to finalizing documents.0:43Prime Minister Mark Carney said [music]0:45only that substantial progress had been0:47made, but important work still remains.0:49By the evening of August 21st, no deal0:52had been announced. Late on August 22nd,0:54the pause lapsed, the duties took0:56effect, and [music] U.S. Trade0:58Representative Jameson Greer1:00>> also rendered Jameson Greer in filings,1:02said Canada declined [music] to1:04finalize.1:05>> What was hit remains disputed on paper1:07because the text never came. One set of1:09reports puts the basket at roughly $281:11billion,1:12another at about $20 billion, the same1:14basket priced in Canadian dollars at1:16about 28 billion Canadian. Independent1:18guidance reviewed after the [music]1:20filings puts the definitive U.S. value1:22near $20 billion,1:24about 5% of what Canada sells [music] to1:26its largest customer inside a dependency1:28where about 70% of Canadian goods1:30exports go to the United States. [music]1:32The product list is wide either way.1:34Presenters and correspondents cited1:36wine, cement, [music] dairy, hockey1:38equipment, aluminum, and steel, with1:40other filings adding softwood lumber and1:42autos. The annexes run to hundreds of1:44tariff lines,1:45>> [music]1:45>> dairy powders and whey, alcoholic1:47beverages, cement, sporting goods,1:49furniture, textiles, machinery. What1:52stays out is definitive, [music] oil,1:53gas, and critical minerals, and with1:55them potash and fish, plus anything1:57already under Section 232 [music] duties1:59introduced last year. Steel and aluminum2:02referenced at 50% stay at that rate.2:04They do not get another 50 on top.2:05[music] Softwood lumber sits under its2:07own separate Section 232 treatment.2:09During the pause, the numbers that would2:11have mattered most to factories [music]2:12never hardened. Reports described2:14aluminum, steel, and auto parts duties2:16easing from 50 to 25% [music]2:18and top auto duties from 25 to 15%. The2:21White House said on August 20th the deal2:22was still being finalized and that2:24reporting on details should be treated2:25as speculation. [music]2:26None of those cuts appeared in a legal2:28text. When the talks collapsed, they2:30lapsed. Canada's biggest ask, relief on2:33the existing Section 232 steel,2:35aluminum, and auto tariffs was left2:37unresolved. The gap [music] between2:39claims is starkest on dairy. Trade2:41Minister Dominic LeBlanc held supply2:43[music] management as a red line Canada2:45did not concede, including quota2:46allocations alongside softwood lumber,2:49auto counter [music] tariffs, and2:50provincial liquor bans. Greer's2:52suspension proclamation says Canada2:53committed to [music] address dairy,2:55including discriminatory tariff rate2:56quota administration favoring European2:58access over US [music] access. No3:00verified concession on the supply3:02management system itself was finalized.3:04Dairy farmers [music] have flagged3:06concern over the lack of details. Greer3:08still must brief Congress [music] and no3:10joint fact sheet exists to resolve which3:12characterization holds. Provinces used3:14alcohol as retaliation [music] long3:16before this duty. Ontario's Premier Doug3:18Ford ordered American products delisted3:20[music] at the LCBO. British Columbia's3:22Premier said there was not a chance in3:23hell of restocking without relief on3:25lumber, steel, and aluminum. [music] And3:26British Columbia, Quebec, and New3:28Brunswick tied any return to sectoral3:30relief. One accounting puts the LCBO3:32exposure [music] at more than $1 billion3:34on more than 3,600 American products3:37from more than 30 states. More than 15%3:40of revenue absent for months. [music]3:41Research reviewed after the reports puts3:43the storage costs at about $8 million3:45while American distillers [music] lost3:46access to a $1 billion market with LCBO3:49revenue projected near $1.8 billion down3:52from 2.3 billion. [music]3:54If a deal had been struck, American3:55alcohol could have returned, but timing3:57is a provincial decision.3:59Early polling in Ontario, British4:01Columbia, and Quebec indicates a4:02majority say they will not buy American4:04alcohol [music] if restocked or have4:06moved to alternatives, including nanos4:08at about 74% unlikely, [music]4:10and other polls in the 42 to 80% range.4:12US spirits exports to Canada have4:14already fallen by more than 70% under4:16[music] the bans. Aluminum underlines4:18the energy at stake. Canada ships 2.74:21million tons a year to the United4:23[music] States, described in Canadian4:25statements as the energy equivalent of4:26five Hoover dams, [music] about four to4:28four and a half times in the research4:30review. Those flows sit under Section4:32232 at [music] 50% separate from the new4:3550% in Warren, Michigan. That math lands4:38on a shop floor. [music] Custom4:39furniture owner Michael Howard of Howard4:41Family Designs told CBC on August 18th4:44[music] that about 70% of US softwood4:46lumber is sourced from Canada, that a4:48prospective 50% tariff expected as early4:51as August 19th would be unaffordable for4:53customers, that [music] he had already4:54lost a hospital desk and furniture4:56project and one staff member faces about4:58a $3,000 profit loss on another client5:01unwilling to absorb costs,5:02>> [music]5:02>> cannot absorb the duties, and must pass5:04them on, that it takes years to bring a5:06lumber mill online, and that other5:08county businesses reliant on Canadian5:10aluminum have closed. [music]5:11He attributed muted public discussion to5:13fear of retaliation. This was never5:15pitched as a final pact. Officials and5:18analysts described an interim basket to5:20lower the temperature as a bridge to5:21renewal of the United5:22States-Mexico-Canada [music] Agreement.5:24Almost a year of bilateral stalemate saw5:26little direct movement [music] while5:28Washington negotiated with Mexico, with5:30more progress only in the last three to5:32four weeks. Canada briefed cabinet and5:34premiers on August 19th.5:36>> [music]5:36>> Minister LeBlanc stayed in Washington5:38expected to meet Greer at 11:15 a.m. in5:40what was called a cordial end game.5:42While former High Commissioner Ralph5:44Goodale said the The Committee on5:46Canada-US Economic Relations had not met5:48in 48 hours and was on standby. Former5:51White House trade advisor [music]5:52Kellyanne Shaw said the trappings of a5:54deal to stave off tariffs within a5:55couple of days or 72 hours existed, but5:58nothing is done until done. Assessing a6:00deal by end of Friday as greater [music]6:01than not likely to bring Canada back6:03into the trilateral review from which it6:05had been excluded. Canadian Chamber6:07Executive Vice President Matthew Holmes6:09called the tone positive, [music] but6:10said the scheduled Section 338 tariff6:12would hit small and medium enterprise6:14heavy industries [music] with6:15existential risks and small but6:17meaningful macro effects with 12 to 186:19months of uncertainty already sidelining6:21investment even as Canada pursues6:22diversification.6:23>> [music]6:23>> What was triggered now moves to6:25calendars without text. No joint fact6:27sheet or legal text was finalized.6:29Canada's pledge to retaliate dollar for6:31dollar matching every dollar of American6:34duties is described in source material6:36as targeting [music] steel, dairy,6:37appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp6:40and paper, and electronics6:41>> [music]6:41>> with independent guidance pointing to6:42September 8th, the day after Labor Day,6:45but no full list with timing was6:46published. An official said details6:48would come in coming days. [music]6:49During talks, Canada had signaled6:51willingness to drop some retaliatory6:53duties on steel, [music] aluminum, and6:55autos if the US substantially lowered6:57its rates and to encourage provinces to6:59restore alcohol sales. The broader frame7:01also [music] slipped. The United States7:03declined a 16-year extension at the July7:051st joint review, leaving annual reviews7:07with the pact in force [music] until7:082036 unless renewed earlier. A near deal7:11had reportedly included launching formal7:13renewal negotiations. [music]7:15That is now off the table. Canada says7:17it will not join upcoming trilateral7:19talks without a bilateral [music] deal,7:21and the text that was supposed to7:22prevent either the duties or the7:23retaliation remains unwritten while the7:25duties are imposed and the retaliation7:27is promised.7:28Like and follow for more stories that7:30matter.مقاله را بخوانیدخط زمانی داستانHeyDexویدیوی کوتاه ↗
