25 Inches of Rain on the Table as Hurricane Lala Skirted Hawaii

Lala formed in the Central Pacific on Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026, and quickly focused attention on Hawaii Island. A hurricane watch issued that day for the Big Island was later upgraded to a hurricane warning for the Hilo area as confidence grew that the system would strengthen on approach.⁠7⁠3

By Friday, Aug. 14, the storm was roughly 420 miles east-southeast of Hilo, moving west-northwest at 12 mph, with its core forecast to pass near the Big Island and reach Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday.⁠10⁠7⁠6 Forecasters expected Lala to become a hurricane before reaching the Big Island, bringing destructive flooding rains and wildfire-fueling winds, according to reporting by AP's Jennifer Sinco Kelleher.⁠2

The rainfall numbers that mattered most did not agree with each other, and the disagreement itself was part of the story. One island forecast discussed 5 to 10 inches for Hawaii Island and Maui.⁠6 Another outlook warned that up to 25 inches was possible on the Big Island.⁠8 For residents and emergency managers, that spread meant the difference between a very wet tropical storm and a life-threatening flood disaster, with mudslides and dangerous surf possible even well away from the center.⁠3⁠8

The track kept the Big Island closest to the core, but forecasters warned the entire Hawaiian Islands chain, including Honolulu, could see heavy rain and surf.⁠3⁠8 That statewide reach is typical of a broad tropical system in the Central Pacific, where outer bands can deliver torrential rain, high winds and pounding surf hundreds of miles from the center.⁠8

In Hilo, the warning phase brought the practical work of preparation. Canoe clubs relocated canoes from Hilo Bayfront after the hurricane warning, moving treasured boats away from water that could soon turn violent.⁠3 USA Today described forecasts of an "enormous storm" with torrential rains bearing down on the islands.⁠9

The timing compressed quickly. What had been a watch on Aug. 13 became a warning, and by early Saturday the outer rainbands were already hitting the Big Island while Lala was still a tropical storm at 5 a.m. Hawaii time.⁠7⁠3⁠9 Hurricane conditions had been expected as early as Saturday, and the forecast called for intensification to hurricane force before the closest approach.⁠6⁠2

Lala did make it to hurricane strength. The BBC reported winds of up to 80 mph, saying the storm "gained hurricane strength on Saturday" and could be Hawaii's first direct hurricane hit since 1992.⁠4 That history gave the forecast its urgency: Hawaii rarely takes a direct hurricane strike, and a direct hit had not happened in 34 years.⁠4

But the direct hit did not happen. "Hurricane Lala skirts Hawaii's Big Island without making landfall" while heavy wind and rain still lashed the region, with downed utility poles reported near Ocean View and rising water at the Wainaku Street Bridge in Hilo on Saturday, Aug. 15.⁠11 The distinction between a skirt and a landfall mattered on a map, but less on the ground where poles were down and water was rising.⁠11

Yale Climate Connections' Sunday update confirmed that torrential rain, high winds and high surf pounded the islands as Lala swept south of the chain.⁠8 Passing south meant the center stayed offshore, yet the islands still took the storm's southern punch of rain, wind and surf.⁠8

Yale also noted what had been at stake: Lala could have been the first hurricane on record to strike the Big Island, a possibility that did not materialize when the center stayed south and offshore.⁠8 In other words, the island avoided a historic first while enduring a severe close call.⁠11⁠8

In retrospect, the central forecast verified in its essentials. That Lala would become a hurricane by Saturday and that the Big Island would be closest to the core was confirmed in subsequent reporting.⁠2⁠6⁠7⁠10 That a hurricane watch covered the Big Island, later upgraded to a warning, was also confirmed.⁠7⁠3 That heavy rain and surf would extend beyond the Big Island to the rest of the chain was confirmed as well.⁠3⁠8

What did not verify was the implied ending that the storm's core would come ashore. It passed close but did not make landfall.⁠11 Early Saturday's status as still a tropical storm even as rainbands arrived showed how narrow the timing was between tropical-storm impacts and hurricane strength.⁠9⁠4