Sciences · El Niño forecastLa chaleur du Pacifique dépasse 3°C, le Met Office avertissant qu’El Niño pourrait être le plus fort de mémoire d’hommeRédigé 7 septembre 2026 à 21:22 UTCRegarderTranscription0:00The tropical Pacific is heating toward a0:01peak that would rewrite modern records.0:03[music]0:03The warming is forecast to exceed 3° C0:06above normal in November and December0:07[music] 2026 and become the strongest El0:09Niño in living memory with some forecast0:12systems reaching up to 4° and others0:13clustering around 3.6 to 3.9°. That0:16threshold matters because of scale.0:18[music]0:18A typical El Niño brings 1 to 2° of0:21warming. 2° alone is considered [music]0:23a really big event. The current anomaly0:26has already climbed from about half a0:28degree to about 2° now.0:30>> [music]0:30>> With subsurface heat at about 100 m0:32depth cited at about 8° above normal0:35providing [music] the reservoir to push0:36the surface peak higher. Every 2 to 70:38years the cycle naturally appears and0:40usually lasts 9 to 12 months, but the0:42physics change when the starting point0:44is hotter. Climate change lifts0:46background heat and moisture, so this El0:48Niño mobilizes more energy over already0:50warmer seas and atmosphere. That is the0:52assessment from the head of long-range0:54forecasting, [music]0:54Professor Adam Scaife, who said0:56confidence is unusually high for a0:58seasonal forecast. Because the event is1:00developing slowly over many months and1:02other forecast systems show similar1:04extreme values unprecedented since about1:061950 and [music] probably the largest1:09since the 19th century. The path ahead1:11explains the urgency. [music]1:13After a summer of extreme heat and1:15drought, a wetter and stormier October1:17and November is forecast [music] for the1:18United Kingdom. Rain on dried hardened1:21ground and flood pounded embankments1:23raises surface water flood risk with1:25calls to inspect [music] flood defenses1:26and prepare health, economic, food1:28security, and infrastructure responses.1:30Network Rail is facing track and1:32embankment stress in [music] that heat1:34to flood transition and the preparedness1:36gap is framed by the former head of the1:38environment agency, now heading the1:40National Heat Risk Commission at the1:42Grantham Research Institute, [music]1:43Emma Howard Boyd, between managing1:45summer drought and autumn flood1:47response. The cost reference is stark.1:49The French government incurred flood1:51costs of around a billion euros in1:53February this year. Drought at the1:54Panama Canal is already limiting cargo1:57and transits and raising shipping costs1:59[music] through a central trade artery2:00off Peru. Suppressed upwelling is2:02collapsing the anchovy and fish meal2:04fishery that feeds global aquaculture2:06and agriculture. A suppressed monsoon2:09threatens Southeast Asian palm oil and2:11rice, while Australia faces drought and2:13elevated wildfire risk and price swings2:15in coffee, cocoa, and sugar linked to2:16Brazil and West Africa are showing how2:18fast [music] tropical harvest shortfalls2:20transmit to world markets. The2:21formulation is also described as a2:23Godzilla super El Niño on track to be2:26[music] the strongest on record. And2:27research from WaterAid covering 44 years2:30from 1982 to the present, examining the2:32six strongest El Niños and 44 years of2:34rainfall in 12 South and Southeast Asian2:36cities with Bristol [music] and Cardiff2:38academics, finds the current event on2:40track to be the biggest yet, suggesting2:4244 years of data may not prepare for2:44what is coming. Direction of rainfall2:46departure becomes more certain in strong2:48events, magnitude [music] less so. The2:51larger hit to households is timed for2:522027, not the autumn peak. Strong El2:55Niño peaks in late 2026 [music]2:58were followed by potentially record warm2:59years in 1998, 2015, and 2023 as deep3:04ocean heat surfaces in the year after3:05the winter peak.3:06>> [music]3:06>> And 2027 is flagged as very likely to3:09replace 2024 as the warmest on record3:11and temporarily exceed 1.5° [music]3:14above pre-industrial. For the United3:16Kingdom, those shopping basket and3:17supply chain exposures are not expected3:19until 2027, when food prices and3:22everyday imports including coffee,3:24flowers, clothing, and semiconductors3:26come under pressure. Palm oil is in3:28nearly half of all packaged supermarket3:30products [music] sourced via Malaysia3:31and Kuala Lumpur and Indonesia and3:33Jakarta. Textiles from Bangladesh3:35centered on Dhaka are the second biggest3:37supplier after China, [music] with3:38sourcing regions including Addis Ababa,3:41Nairobi, and Dhaka marking where monsoon3:42[music] disruption, drought, or flooding3:44can reach British shops. What remains3:47unresolved is precise magnitude, [music]3:49whether the peak stays just above 3° or3:51approaches 4, whether subsurface heat3:54near 8 degrees sustains that [music]3:55surface peak, how much wetter October3:58and November become and which catchments4:00and urban areas see the [music] worst4:01surface water flooding on hardened4:02ground, whether 2027 becomes a record4:05warm year and by what margin compared4:07with 1998, 2015, [music]4:092023 and 2024, and how severely canal4:12limits, fishery losses, monsoon4:14shortfalls, drought, fire and commodity4:16volatility will pass [music] through to4:17prices and whether advanced defense4:19inspections and procurement blunt the4:21shock or leave health, economic, food4:22security and infrastructure systems4:24underestimating a forecast without a4:2644-year analog.4:28Like and follow for more stories that4:29matter.Lire l’articleChronologie de l’histoireHeyDexLe format court ↗
