テクノロジー · AI IPO valuationウォール街、2028年の売上高を基にAnthropicを2兆ドルと評価執筆 2026年9月7日 21:22 UTC視聴文字起こし0:00$190 billion that doesn't exist yet is0:02pricing one of the biggest IPOs ever.0:05Wall Street is valuing Anthropic not on0:07this year's sales, but on $190 to $2000:10billion of revenue forecast for 2028,0:13two full years forward, and turning that0:15number into talk of a $2 trillion0:17valuation at debut. Will that revenue0:19ever materialize to support the price0:21investors would pay on day one?0:23>> The anchor is a previously unreported0:25projection of $190 billion to $2000:28billion in revenue for 2028. [music]0:31Bankers are applying enterprise value to0:32revenue multiples, not to trailing sales0:35or even 2026 sales, but to that [music]0:372028 top line.0:39Four sources described that two years0:41forward approach as the basis for0:42pricing. The gap [music] from today to0:44that forecast is the central tension.0:46The run rate was $87 million in January0:492024, then $1 billion by December0:51[music] 2024, about $9 billion at the0:54end of 2025, more than $47 billion by0:57May 2026, and more than $65 billion by1:00the end of July 2026.1:02Cloud quota loan was more than $2.51:04billion run rate by February.1:06>> [music]1:06>> Second quarter 2026 projected revenue1:08was at least $10.9 stash to $11.51:11billion,1:12more than double the prior quarter in1:14some reports, with a path to a first1:16quarterly operating profit of about $5591:18million. Those are the multiples doing1:21the work.1:21>> [music]1:22>> Palantir trades around 53 times expected1:242026 revenue, SpaceX and Cloudflare1:27around 41.6 times.1:29Applied to $190 to $200 billion,1:33>> [music]1:33>> they point to talk of about $2 trillion1:35at IPO, a level voiced by investor David1:37Merkle of Aleph Investments. That is a1:40sharp step up from the private mark of1:41about $965 billion in May 2026 after a1:45$65 billion series H. Those same1:48multiples are what would let1:49underwriters justify [music] proceeds1:51that match or exceed the largest capital1:53raise on record. The plumbing is already1:55in motion. A confidential S1 was filed1:58in early June 2026. [music]2:00A public filing is expected as soon as2:02late August 2026 with a target debut2:04around October 2026 [music] in the fall2:06window subject to market conditions, SEC2:09review, and roadshow. Underwriters2:10include Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs,2:12and JP Morgan. Venue [music]2:14expectations lean toward NASDAQ though2:16NYSE remains possible with prediction2:19markets favoring NASDAQ for high-growth2:21AI names. The [music] schedule puts2:23Anthropic ahead of OpenAI leaning toward2:262027. The bar for biggest ever is2:29absolute dollars. [music]2:31SpaceX on June 12th, 2026 raised about2:33$75 billion at about 1.75 times [music]2:36to 1.77 trillion dollars. The largest by2:39proceeds surpassing Saudi Aramco in 20192:42at about [music] $25.60 to $29.4 billion2:46with a green shoe and Alibaba in 2014 at2:49about $21.80 to $25 [music] billion at2:51more than $170 billion. Matching SpaceX2:55proceeds [music] or approaching $22:56trillion market capitalization at debut2:59would place Anthropic at or near the top3:01by both proceeds and valuation but only3:04if the 2028 revenue actually arrives.3:07The forecast is consensus for modeling,3:09[music] not audited guidance. The3:11methodology, definition of run rate3:13versus calendar year revenue, [music]3:14and durability of growth are all3:16uncertain. The earlier internal3:18expectation for 2028 reported in 20253:21was up to about $70 billion.3:23The current figure is nearly three times3:25that [music] and would require3:26continuing a pattern of more than 103:28times annual run rate growth seen in3:30each of the three years through early3:322026. [music] The bet assumes enterprise3:34and API demand keeps scaling, training3:37and inference costs fall, and revenue3:38[music] outruns massive near-term3:40spending on GPUs, compute, model3:42development, and hiring so margins3:44expand at scale. That multi-year [music]3:45forward approach has precedent in3:47hypergrowth listings like Cerebras and3:48SpaceX. The other side is already3:51flagged for [music] disclosure. AI3:53backlash and opposition to data centers3:55as a key risk factor. With increased SEC3:58and FTC scrutiny [music] expected on AI4:00safety claims, antitrust concentration4:02and model transparency. Peers including4:04Palantir, Cloudflare, [music] Cerebras4:06and OpenAI face immediate pressure on4:08margins, pricing and customer poaching4:10if a $2 trillion market holds.4:12Until the public [music] S-1 arrives,4:14the $190 billion to $200 billion for4:182028 [music] remains the number Wall4:20Street is willing to price today for a4:22company that at the end of 2025 was4:24running at about $9 [music] billion.4:26That filing, then the roadshow and the4:28October attempt at a debut will show4:30audited numbers, the methodology behind4:33any [music] forecast and risk4:34disclosures, and whether a 2-year4:36forward price leaves any cushion if4:37scaling slows, compute costs do not4:40fall, or enterprise adoption stalls.4:42Like and follow for more stories that4:44matter.記事を読むストーリーの時系列HeyDexショート動画 ↗
