ビジネス · IPO準備Anthropicの168億米ドルの四半期決算に残る会計上の疑問執筆 2026年10月15日 12:51 UTC視聴文字起こし0:07On August 22nd, we reported Anthropic's forecast-based valuation pitch.0:11Now Anthropic has told investors it generated $16.8 billion in one quarter.0:16The company is also pitching a second consecutive quarter of adjusted profitability0:21as it prepares for a possible public offering.0:23Prospective shareholders face substantial long-term computing bills.0:27The test is whether investors can see the full costs behind that adjusted profit0:30before they're asked to buy.0:32Anthropic met prospective investors at its San Francisco headquarters on October0:3614th.0:36The company hasn't publicly confirmed these exact quarterly results or published0:40financial statements containing them.0:42Chief Executive Dario Amadei and Chief Financial Officer Krishna Rao met the0:46investors.0:47Their pitch combines rapidly expanding sales with adjusted financial measures that0:51suggest the business is covering more of its costs.0:54Revenue rose from about $4.7 billion in the first quarter to about $11.6 billion1:00in the second.1:01It reached $16.8 billion in the third, a gain of $5.2 billion.1:06Or about 45% in three months.1:09The third quarter covers the three months ending in September.1:12Its revenue was more than three times the first quarter's.1:15For comparison, Anthropic generated about $4.6 billion during all of 2025.1:20Bankers' earlier valuation pitch leaned on projected 2028 revenue of $190 billion to1:26$200 billion.1:27Those sales are still forecasts.1:29Earlier figures put the first quarter at about $4.8 billion and the second at about1:34$11.5 billion.1:36Anthropic hasn't published unrounded numbers to settle those differences.1:40Using $11.6 billion and $16.8 billion gives about 45% growth.1:46The financial pitch also includes an 85% adjusted gross margin and an adjusted1:51operating margin above 11%.1:54Some figures put that operating margin simply at 11%.1:57Gross margin measures what's left after the costs assigned to delivering the2:01service.2:02Operating margin also reflects operating expenses.2:05Anthropic also presented positive adjusted free cash flow without giving a dollar2:10amount.2:11the adjusted qualifier applies to that cash flow result too, and the third quarter2:15continued adjusted profitability achieved in the second quarter.2:18Stock-based pay, model training, and payments to distribution partners are costs2:23investors need to understand.2:24Anthropic hasn't shown precisely how those items were treated in these third quarter2:29adjustments or the dollar amounts involved.2:31Without that accounting bridge, investors can't work backward from the adjusted2:35margins to a standard accounting profit.2:37Comparable earlier margins and cash flow amounts also haven't been disclosed, so2:41there's no numerical measure of how much those results improved.2:44Anthropic has reportedly committed at least $518 billion to computing and2:49infrastructure with six partners over roughly a decade.2:52About 80% is non-cancelable or payable, regardless of usage.2:56That creates payment obligations extending far beyond the latest quarter.2:59Those contracts spread spending across years.3:02Future shareholders have to judge whether revenue will keep growing fast enough to3:06cover the payments as they come due.3:08A single adjusted profitable quarter can't settle that longer-term cash requirement.3:12Google's commitment is at least $111.11 billion running from April3:172026 through July 2033.3:20Amazon's is about $110 billion from May 2026 through April 2036.3:25Both include minimum spending or shortfall payment provisions.3:29Microsoft commitments total $31.4 billion, covering November 2026 through May3:342033.3:35Broadcom-related equipment leases add about $161.20 billion within the overall3:40commitment total.3:41Those leases are largely non-cancelable.3:43The XAI arrangement reaches up to about $84.5 billion and is largely cancelable,3:50giving Anthropic more flexibility there.3:52All these amounts sit inside the overall commitment account.3:55The named contracts cover only part of the six-partner breakdown, and their3:59different cancellation terms affect how much spending Anthropic can avoid.4:03Anthropic submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the Securities4:07and Exchange Commission on June 1st.4:09That gives it the option to proceed after regulatory review.4:12The company said the offering would depend on market conditions and other factors.4:16Anthropic is reportedly seeking a valuation above $2 trillion.4:20That remains an aspiration.4:22Investors still need the public offering terms to know how the company would be4:26priced and how much money a share sale would raise.4:28Formal marketing could begin as soon as the week of November 9th.4:32That could allow a debut before Thanksgiving on November 26th.4:36A November offering or one by year-end remains possible, but Anthropic hasn't4:40confirmed a launch or trading date.4:42As of October 15th, Anthropic hadn't published a prospectus containing these4:46quarterly results.4:47Investors therefore still lack the public accounting detail needed to judge the4:51adjusted profit against the full costs.4:53Future shareholders would face contracts whose payments can come due even when4:57computing capacity goes unused.記事を読むストーリーの時系列HeyDexショート動画 ↗
