An evicted 87-year-old, a failed housing vote, and now a dissolved Spanish parliament

On 5 October we reported tens of thousands marching over housing costs in Madrid, clashes in Valencia, and only that Sánchez was said to be weighing a snap election. That is now settled. He announced the vote in a national address the same day, and the decree followed.⁠8

Royal Decree 806/2026, dated 5 October, dissolves the Congress and Senate elected in July 2023 and calls both chambers to the polls on Sunday 29 November. It was published in the official gazette (BOE no. 248) on 6 October and took effect that day.⁠79 It was issued after the Council of Ministers deliberated on 5 October, on the prime minister's proposal.⁠80

That corrects an early account. A garbled translated clip from Guardian News suggested the extraordinary Council would meet "tomorrow".⁠7 It met on the day of the announcement. The government stays a full government until the vote, not a caretaker one.⁠86

The decree also settles a conflict between outlets over the campaign. DW said it would last 55 days.⁠1 BBC said two weeks from 13 November.⁠4 BBC was closer. The decree sets a 15-day campaign, from 00:00 on Friday 13 November to 24:00 on Friday 27 November, then a reflection day on the 28th.⁠104 The 55 matches the span from announcement to polling day. That is our arithmetic, not a figure anyone has called the campaign.

The two decrees Congress killed are the reason for the election, and their loss leaves tenants exposed while the campaign runs. The PP, Vox and Junts voted against; reports describe the measures as including a ban on evicting vulnerable tenants until 2030 and two-year lease extensions, though those terms are not independently verified.⁠40 BBC said the government banned evictions until 2030 after Abascal's case.⁠4 That ban sat inside a decree Congress then rejected, so it should not be read as protection in force. The decrees are reported repealed, the exact legal cutoff is unavailable, and no replacement is verified.

The PP and Vox argued the decrees did not protect owners and that thousands of flats had left the market.⁠1

Sánchez leads a PSOE–Sumar minority that has passed no budget since 2023 and faces corruption allegations and criticism over the Ceuta crisis. The Guardian puts about 70,000 crossings from Morocco in 48 hours; BBC says most of the 70,000-plus July arrivals were returned.⁠6 He frames the vote as a choice between joining the far-right wave and keeping Spain a bastion of openness, social justice and environmental responsibility.⁠6 Analyst Javier Carbonell of the European Policy Centre says weak mobilisation on the left is hurting him, and that Sánchez hopes housing will change that.⁠5

The only polling we have predates the call. A 40dB poll for El País and Cadena SER (fieldwork 25–28 September) had the PP at 31.6%, PSOE 27.4%, Vox 18.4%, Sumar 5.6% and Podemos 2.7%. PP plus Vox reach about 50%, against 35.7% for PSOE, Sumar and Podemos combined.⁠126 The state pollster CIS, which tends to run friendlier to the PSOE than private firms, had the Socialists at 32.8% and the PP at 23.7% in September.⁠114 No poll taken after the announcement was out by the evening of 6 October.

These are projections, not results. They do point one way: the PP leads but is not on course for the 176 seats of 350 that an absolute majority needs, so a PP–Vox government is the likeliest outcome, with Carbonell expecting Abascal to become vice president.⁠5 Reuters and the Guardian note that would be Spain's first far-right government since Franco's death in 1975.⁠3

Feijóo's pledge, reported by DW, is 600,000 jobs and 1 million flats under a PP government.⁠1 No costing or delivery mechanism appears in anything we have seen, so it is a campaign promise, not a plan. Vox's Abascal calls the race "muy incierta" and recalls 2023, when PP and Vox led surveys and Sánchez still formed a government.⁠107 Madrid's Isabel Díaz Ayuso urged people not to vote by post, alleging possible "adulteraciones"; the reporting offers no evidence for that.⁠107

The left is the weakest part of the bet. Sumar says its new Frente Amplio, with IU, Más Madrid and the Comuns so far, is ready, but it has named no candidate. A presentation is planned for 17 October. Yolanda Díaz had already stepped back as lead candidate, and Podemos has offered open primaries.⁠127