ReportPoland and France Warn of 'Accidental' Russian Strikes on NATOAired September 23, 2026 at 9:09 AM UTCWritten September 23, 2026 at 9:12 AM UTCRead the write-upThis storyTranscript · LOADING0:11Moscow would call a missile strike on NATO an accident and expect no answer.0:15That scenario was put in public within four days, with Ukrainian heat and power,0:19French trains, water and phones, airports and defense jobs all exposed.0:23Will the alliance treat the next drone that causes damage as an accident to absorb0:27or an attack to answer together?0:28Poland's prime minister took the SAM rostrum in Warsaw and called this the most0:32likely security scenario for the coming fall and winter.0:35He cited intelligence assessments he described as very consistent and convincing0:39from Polish services, NATO, Ukraine, and the United States.0:43Russia would intensify strikes on Ukrainian cities, warehouses, rail and logistics0:48and energy, while adding hybrid drone and missile strikes against countries0:51supporting Ukraine, including Poland.0:53The real risk, as laid out in Warsaw, is that drones or other missiles enter0:58territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank and cause damage and1:02destruction.1:03Moscow would then call them accidents with no reason for any NATO response.1:07The purpose is to paralyze or weaken motivation to defend a member under attack,1:10weaken NATO integrity.1:12and demonstrate that Article V collective defense exists only in theory.1:15He stressed nothing suggested a full invasion, but Poland and the Eastern Flank1:20faced a serious test.1:21Late autumn and winter would be tragically critical for Ukraine.1:25Moscow is not ready for serious discussion of truce or ceasefire at least until end1:29of winter.1:30Russia does not even need to cross the border because it is already waging hybrid1:33war with drones, sabotage, and online disinformation.1:36The vow was direct.1:38We will not be intimidated.1:39We are not seeking war.1:41But if anyone dares attack, they will face a firm response from Poland and allies.1:45Poland will not give up even a scrap of territory.1:48Difficult weeks and months lie ahead with solidarity to be shown in Ukraine.1:51A day later in Paris, the French President said the Russian hybrid threat facing1:56Europeans in France had intensified in recent weeks through drones, cyber attacks,2:01airspace incursions and sabotage.2:03France itself had been targeted and the nature of Russian aggression in Europe is2:07changing.2:07He ordered government to prepare a protection plan for critical infrastructure and2:11the most sensitive sites of the defense industrial and technological base against2:15drones and cyber attacks.2:17Prefects had already been told to raise vigilance.2:19Attacks on French soil would not go unanswered.2:22The intent is to intimidate Europeans and break the effort to support Ukraine.2:26The result will be the exact opposite.2:28Security today and tomorrow is at stake in Ukraine.2:31Potential French targets under discussion are energy, rail, telecoms, water, and2:36defense industry sites.2:37On September 21st, the Interior Minister called the hybrid threat real and2:41documented.2:41Cohesion is the explicit battlefield.2:44There are warnings of splitting NATO and the European Union, of political change2:48toward peace and pacifism language that in practice means total capitulation for2:52Ukraine, and of anti-EU, anti-Alli, and anti-Ukrainian messaging that serves Russian2:57strategy.2:58The warning is not to take part in such narratives.3:01because no one is safe from shadow operations designed to frighten Europeans into3:04easing support for Kiev.3:06The warnings sit on concrete recent damage.3:08On August 5th, an explosive-laden drone attempted an attack at Leipzig-Halley3:13airport while a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane was present.3:16In early September, Germany blamed Russia.3:18The European Union and NATO called it a new escalation on EU soil directly3:22attributed to Russia.3:24Germany moved to shut a Russian consulate among other measures.3:27The European Commission president pledged more pressure with calls for new3:31sanctions.3:32On September 13th, suspects were identified as a Belarusian citizen and a Russian3:36national linked to military intelligence services, Russia denied involvement.3:41Around the same period, a wave of sabotage exposed counterintelligence gaps on the3:45eastern flank.3:46Estonia moved to deploy drone surveillance.3:48Counts compiled September 22nd show Romania logged 27 airspace incursions in 2026,3:54Moldova nearly 60 since 2022, and 16 NATO members reported drone violations or4:00recovered debris in two years.4:01With a NATO jet shooting down a drone over Lithuania for the first time in4:05September.4:05NATO is shifting from traditional air policing toward 360-degree defense.4:10Between September 20 and 22, European intelligence chiefs echoed the Warsaw warning4:14with a month's, not years, timeline for more decisive Russian action, ranging from4:18missile and drone attacks to limited ground incursion.4:21Named possible forms are limited border incursions, false flag provocations,4:25increased drone activity, and large-scale influence campaigns, with focus discussed4:29around the Suwaki Gap, the 80-kilometer Polish-Lithuanian border between Kaliningrad4:34and Belarus.4:35One chief warned a panicked reaction risked helping the Kremlin.4:38Baltic officials cautioned no attack appeared imminent and warned against panic.4:42The material gives categories and time frame, but no specific date, target, or4:46single sourcing document.4:48Taxpayers were exposed after the June-July breach of the Directorate General of4:52Public Finances, where compromised credentials of an employee and an authorized4:56third party allowed exfiltration of names, addresses, tax numbers, and income and5:00property data for 678,000 individuals and businesses.5:04It was disclosed in mid-August after a hacker advertised the database, confirmed by5:08the Finance Ministry, investigated by the Paris Prosecutor's Cybercrime Unit, and5:13followed by an inter-ministerial crisis cell on August 17th alongside emails to5:17affected users and securing of systems.5:19That breach is not attributed to Russia or any named group and cannot be presented5:24as a proven Russian operation.5:25Macron's infrastructure plan is ordered but not published.5:28Poland's leader heads to Kyiv amid talks over sanctions and support.5:32Intelligence services warn without naming the first target.5:34Article 5 remains untested against an accident narrative.5:38A winter is approaching where a single drone that damages a warehouse, a rail line,5:42or a power plant forces the choice laid out in Warsaw.5:45Treat it as accident and absorb it, or treat it as attack and answer it together.Explore with HeyDexFollow via RSSThe shortThe short ↗